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Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

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Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#51

Post by retsibsi »

Trasmatta wrote: post #41
monoideism wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but that's > 3 million over 12 months vs 32 million over 40 years, the majority before 2010. AIDS was a huge deal back when there was no treatment for it.

Right, I don't mean to downplay the severity of COVID at all. It's just interesting that we generally don't hear a lot about HIV/AIDS anymore, even though there were still 690,000 deaths associated with it in 2019. I also realize that probably depends largely on where you live.

> I also realize that probably depends largely on where you live.

Yeah, I think this can largely be explained by the usual tendency to focus on our own backyards. Google says 'nearly 13,000 people with AIDS in the United States die each year', and I assume the rate is similar in other wealthy countries. Even if we assume the full total is causally attributable to AIDS, that's significantly less than the usual toll from flu, which we also tend to treat rather casually (which isn't to say that we should).

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#52

Post by sterlind »

h3cate wrote: post #21
throwaway72h9a wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I make it a point to never trust the opinion of "experts" on such matters which can potentially create panic in society. It's just far easier to sound assuring than tell the naked truth as it is. Most of these experts earlier said that the UK variant was nothing to worry about. Now we know it not only spreads faster but is also much deadlier. Same thing might happen here.

Here in the UK we've already been warned that the new Brazilian variant is unlikely to be stopped by vaccines. It's surprising to see this story pop up all of a sudden.

Pfizer seems to be effective against the Brazilian variant in-vitro: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/03/09/coronavirus...

J&J vaccine seems to have less trouble with Brazil than the other variants: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/single-dose-johnson-johnson-...

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#53

Post by spyspy »

inglor_cz wrote: post #35
nl wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing I've learnt from the whole C19 treatment debacle is to never ever trust any single study. Unlike computer science where if you test something and it works once you and then you expect it to work for everyone, in medical research if you see an effect in one treatment study you probably won't see the same effect elsewhere. For treatments (unlike controlled vaccine studies) the cohorts are too small and there…

Absolutely. The study may even be valid in certain conditions, but still fail to replicate elsewhere. People differ. Healthcare systems differ. Too many small details, too small to document, differ.

Journalistic interpretation of these tiny, rushed studies has also been god awful since the beginning. This is true during the best of times, but every clickbait headlines spreading disinformation during an actual pandemic should not be tolerated, especially amongst the more reputable news sources (looking at you NYT).

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#54

Post by BurningFrog »

nl wrote: post #32
inglor_cz wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here in the Czech Republic, doctors in Brno are trying a combination of remdesivir and convalescent plasma in oncological Covid patients. They say that the combo has, so far, worked much better than either of the components in isolation. Out of the small cohort, they lost no one so far. Source in Czech: https://ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/jihomoravskykraj/3278822-brnen...

One thing I've learnt from the whole C19 treatment debacle is to never ever trust any single study. Unlike computer science where if you test something and it works once you and then you expect it to work for everyone, in medical research if you see an effect in one treatment study you probably won't see the same effect elsewhere. For treatments (unlike controlled vaccine studies) the cohorts are too small and there…

True, and it's even worse in social sciences.

Outside of the "hard" sciences, there is always a study that "proves" X and another that "disproves" it.

Not because scientists cheat, but because science is hard.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#55

Post by retrac »

ArkanExplorer wrote: post #36
hannob wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which other pandemic do you think is even remotely comparable to Covid-19? (All pandemics with a comparable transmission rate happened in times that simply aren't comparable to the modern world in terms of mobility, which obviously affects the way this goes.)

COVID is different because it is occurring against a backdrop of extremely aged and obese populations, in a year (2020) which followed a weak flu season (2019), and in an election year in the USA (2020) where all health decision were heavily politicised. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.11.20229708v... "In Sweden, the observed increase in all-cause mortality during Covid-19 was partly due to a lower th…

Despite their hands-off measures legally, Swedes still socially distanced aggressively. The government has been encouraging people there to take active measures in a manner unlike during swine flu. So we are still comparing the spread, and damage from spread, of a virus where significant behavioural change/mitigation efforts were made, against a virus with significantly less efforts to mitigate it.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#57

Post by WalterBright »

BurningFrog wrote: post #54
nl wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing I've learnt from the whole C19 treatment debacle is to never ever trust any single study. Unlike computer science where if you test something and it works once you and then you expect it to work for everyone, in medical research if you see an effect in one treatment study you probably won't see the same effect elsewhere. For treatments (unlike controlled vaccine studies) the cohorts are too small and there…

True, and it's even worse in social sciences. Outside of the "hard" sciences, there is always a study that "proves" X and another that "disproves" it. Not because scientists cheat, but because science is hard.

Social science studies tend to be agenda driven, too.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#58

Post by tubularhells »

What nobody wants to talk about is that it might take several more years for things to go back to somewhat normal.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

>In developing its COVID-19 Scenarios Project, the ISC has consulted with WHO and the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. The ISC has established in February, 2021, a multidisciplinary Oversight Panel made up of globally representative world experts in relevant disciplines to work with a technical team to produce the scenario map. The Oversight Panel will report within 6–8 months to the global community on the possible COVID-19 scenarios that lie ahead over the next 3–5 years, and on the choices that could be made by governments, agencies, and citizens to provide a pathway to an optimistic outcome for the world.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#59

Post by abacadaba »

hanklazard wrote: post #16
superkuh wrote: post #3

This is a hopeful but possible take. But the 501Y.V2 (B.1.351) and 501Y.V3 (P1) lineages have the mutation within the conserved region for coronaviruses near the spike protein cleavage site. These show massively (1000x) decreased monoclonal antibody binding for original genetic sequence designs. It's better for the mRNA vaccine produced human-body-made antibodies which show only 5-10x reduction in binding. But antibo…

The monoclonal data is less concerning since the human antibody response is polyclonal. It’s not surprising that this virus can escape from a single targeted antibody and if I were in pharm, this is why I wouldn’t spend billions on a mAb drug. I agree that the decreased convalescent plasma effectiveness is not ideal but I doubt this virus will be able to fully escape the mRNA vaccines on a population level. Polyclona…

The new one is supposed to be targeting a conserved site on the protein, where any change would make it non functional

https://www.investorideas.com/news/2021/biotech/03122Vir-COV...

"The company commented that compared with other monoclonal antibodies, "VIR-7831 binds to a highly conserved epitope of the spike protein, which may make it more difficult for resistance to develop."

Vir Biotechnology's CEO George Scangos, Ph.D., commented, "These exciting data with a single antibody against a conserved epitope bring us one step closer to delivering an effective new solution to patients around the globe."

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#60

Post by beervirus »

tubularhells wrote: post #58

What nobody wants to talk about is that it might take several more years for things to go back to somewhat normal. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... >In developing its COVID-19 Scenarios Project, the ISC has consulted with WHO and the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. The ISC has established in February, 2021, a multidisciplinary Oversight Panel made up of globally representative wo…

The fact that they’re planning for years in the future doesn’t mean it’ll take that long for things to get back to normal.
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