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On the death of my family's dairy farm (2019)

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Re: On the death of my family's dairy farm (2019)

#321
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Stocks, gold, Bitcoin, a house you live in (not rent) don’t produce anything (unless your stock has a dividend). Houses: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imputed_rent Stocks: You're literally owning a share of a corporation that produces stuff. Producing a dividend (or buybacks) isn't guaranteed, but that isn't that much different than owning a farm, which can also fail to produce a profit (if costs exceed expenses).

Perhaps you missed "a house you live in (not rent)" I agree with the idea renting a home would be similar to a farm. The whole thing is you have to generate an income from the asset. Stocks are, as you mentioned, kind of similar - but IMO not precisely the same. Often companies have expenses that also inflate, so it's more similar to gold or holding something static. When you own the means of production it's a tad di…

What you are missing is that a farm is an amazing hedge against hyperinflation because hyperinflation is generally what happens when there is a shortage of food and the government keeps issuing money that exceeds the production capacity of the nation, namely to import food from other nations.

Since you are producing your own food you obviously get something to eat before anyone else and you only have to sell your surplus. The only problem with owning a farm as a hedge against hyperinflation is the government may be highly corrupt and repossess all farms and thus cause a food shortage that way. Something you won't own during a crisis may not be a good hedge after all.

Re: On the death of my family's dairy farm (2019)

#322
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Another important factor for me, was the protection from inflation. Food prices go up during inflation, so my farm is worth more. this is a moot point because literally any other thing you invest it (short of maybe government bonds) protect you from inflation.

The other inflating asset is the $500k real estate. Here in the midwest, 40-acre farms a few dozen miles away from cities are constantly being converted into 40-unit residential housing complexes that sell at $500k/unit. Zillow and comps in my neighborhood say that my 50-year-old suburban ranch, which I bought 5 years ago, is worth more than double what I paid for it. Buy the farm at $500k, sell it for $1M in a few y…

This isn't a bad gamble if don't mind running the farm if the bet doesn't pay off.

Re: On the death of my family's dairy farm (2019)

#323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> is precisely because a lot of big corporations want to drive down the price of labor Doesn't immigration also create industry which then creates jobs?

Yes. But, lowering tariffs also lets cheap chinese assembly line shoes be shipped to the US for 80 cents less than what it costs to manufacture on shore. The 80 cents saved does not matter to the shoemaker who lived to sell shoes all his life, has 2 kids and a mortgage, and suffers early retirement due to unfetted globalization.

The obvious solution would be to give everyone jobs. Surely there is something to be gained from not letting unemployed people sit around doing nothing.

Re: On the death of my family's dairy farm (2019)

#324
post #133
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can have cooperation without price-fixing.

Ultimately the problem is the price...

No, it isn't. The price is never the problem. It's like saying that when someone stabs you only the pain is the problem. The problem is that you are wounded, not that you are in pain which is just a symptom.

Get this into your head. The price is just a convenient fiction that lets us organize efficiently. If the price is too low then that means other competitors are working far more efficiently than you do. If the price is too high it means that the market isn't efficient enough. The price is just the messenger, it's a whisteblower that only speaks the truth. If you shut it up, it's like wearing a blindfold. You have gained nothing. There is also a limit to how efficient a market can be, if your price limit is so low that it's not physically possible to be efficient enough to even enter the market you can expect supply to shrink. If you put a price minimum then you allow inefficiency to creep in because you mandate that being efficient below a certain point is illegal.

How does this reflect physical reality (yes, the market isn't physical reality, it's just information that is used to organize physical reality)? Physical reality tells us that we have too much milk. The excess milk has to be consumed or production has to be reduced. You have to do either of these things.

Re: On the death of my family's dairy farm (2019)

#325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I mean willingness to grab a container off the shelf and buy it without sampling, not the process of establishing preferences.

Cool. Then yes, I don't view milk as fitting the definition above though I realize many do.

Even high quality milk is a commodity although a niche commodity.

Think of it this way. There is an art piece that is being produced millions of times and people even buy it multiple times. It's a commodity because it's consistent. It's always the same.

If every art work was different then it wouldn't be a commodity.

The same applies to specific brands. They are a niche commodity. Each pack of milk is identical. The amount of milk you buy is the same in each pack (within tolerances of course). You don't care which cow ended up producing the milk. If each pack of milk was labeled with the cow it came from and each pack had a different quantity of milk it wouldn't be a commodity.

Re: On the death of my family's dairy farm (2019)

#326

Fun fact: newborn cows are switched from their mother's milk to an industrial milk formula just five days after their birth, instead of the normal weaning period of 8 months, so that humans can drink the calf's milk.

Far from an universal truth from my experience as a veterinarian

Re: On the death of my family's dairy farm (2019)

#327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>reported farms using illegal labor. I'm from Mexico, but I've always suspected the reason the US Democratic Party supports immigration is precisely because a lot of big corporations want to drive down the price of labor. They piggyback on antiracist and antinationalist activism to advance the interests of big agriculture. If I was a big agro, I'd invest in both parties. The Republicans to remove regulation that help…

> is precisely because a lot of big corporations want to drive down the price of labor Doesn't immigration also create industry which then creates jobs?

Immigrants can only increase demand that is less than the value of their wages. There is diminishing returns in adding more people to a situation.

Re: On the death of my family's dairy farm (2019)

#328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’m not sure this is true either, but contributing food and housing for slaves is not in any sense paying them, but maintaining them as property, since food and housing is a necessary expense (they wouldn’t be functional slaves otherwise). Its more akin to maintenance on machines. I can most fully agree with that last sentence. It's very much like maintenance on machines. But I don't think employers see as much dif…

> But I don't think employers see as much difference between labor wages and machine maintenance as you do. Of course they do. When labor is voluntary, the wage is agreed upon by all parties to the transaction. When labor is not voluntary then only the compelling party need agree. > You can make a business judgment about how well to feed or house your slaves -- or particular favored slaves -- in much the same way tha…

> A man steals my TV from my house, he’s a thief and he stole from me. Observing that he did not also steal my toaster is irrelevant.

A man works as a blacksmith, manufacturing items as demanded by customers and, in every case, exchanging them for cash, which he keeps. Saying his labor is unpaid is false.

Slavery is a legal status, not a salary status.

Re: On the death of my family's dairy farm (2019)

#329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is another danger that is not being touched upon. Once things consolidate, the overall system becomes massively more fragile. Think 2008 with a few very big multinational banks. A crisis basically brought the market to its knees. Contrast this to restaurants. We have had covid restrictions for months, but yet, 2/3rd of the independently owned are finding ways to operate. They are the epitome of resilience. Imag…

It already happened. We couldn’t get flour at retail, because of the supply chain breakdown of paper bags. Consolidated industry + strategic sourcing = low resilience.

> Consolidated industry + strategic sourcing = low resilience.

This happens everywhere in all industries. Incentives problem. Also agency problem at work.

Current American-style capitalism absolves responsible leadership from low-incidence, high-impact events. The Overton Window has continuously shifted the low-incidence rate from 1 in every extremely-high-number-of-years (sometimes measured in centuries), to in some instances 1 in every single-digit years. They aggressively tout returns to shareholders in the past, then throw up their hands and yell, "Hoocoodanode!?!?!".

To compound matters, there is a malignant, Karen-style American management trend I see where those who do plan ahead and execute on that plan are actively punished when the plans fall short in any way. The response should be: "Wow, I'm sure glad we saved/profited/benefited during that adverse event/period from planning ahead and setting aside, let's work together to figure out how to improve those cards even more because it is obvious it is a winning hand."

Instead, these Karen managers jump down the throats of those who made the hard decisions. First, at the time they made the decisions, for "wasting shareholder resources" on "long shot, unprofitable, black swan" events. Then again when those decisions pay off, they don't sit down and shut up, much less help everyone learn from their error in judgement by admitting to it. They double down to hide their judgement error, by finding flaws in planning ahead, harrumphing indignantly, "Well...you should have known it would turn out like this!"

This is how 3M leadership, despite committing funding towards entire factories and their attendant staffing and logistics chains in mothballs for manufacturing PPE in a crisis, for years, despite successfully onlining them during the pandemic, despite that entire product line hardly being a blip on their 10-Q's, still got raked over the coals by backseat drivers who wanted nothing to do with that entire process when it was being set up but during the pandemic demanded perfect execution.

That kind of "summer soldier and sunshine patriot" leadership of being scarce when the hard decisions are made and being loud to be perceived as "in the know" when reality doesn't mesh perfectly with the results of hard decisions taken many years in the past is extraordinarily toxic to American business, and is a massive cultural failing of American boards to recognize and excise these negative leadership styles.

This also is why ebullient, optimistic, positive leadership styles are so coveted by long-term, sustainable, effective leadership teams. Such teams are in the minority (though ever-so-slowly growing), which is why the adverse dynamics are found in so many industries.

Re: On the death of my family's dairy farm (2019)

#330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gotta admit, I'm not sure which you'd call the ecological wasteland -- the urban area, or the suburban area. Because I'll tell you what, we have a heck of a lot of biodiversity in this suburban area, far more than downtown.

Far less though than if three quarters of that land was left undisturbed or used as pasture and the same number of people lived in a denser urban area.

But the math against urban development is brutal. Rule of thumb I've read seems to be if cost of shelter in exurb is 1, then suburb is 2, mid-rise urban is 4, and high-rise urban is 8.

To make that pencil out, people must be willing to trade off outsourcing much of their lives for much smaller living spaces. That outsourcing cost must not exceed their available income. Beyond that, the outsourcing has to rely upon a dependable logistical tail. While industries everywhere in modern commerce are becoming more brittle and fragile due to various incentive structures, this entire premise tower unravels and becomes increasingly tenuous. High-density living is effectively a mass-trust exercise; low-trust societies cannot sustainably maintain high-density cities over centuries, the only timescale where the long-term public and private financials modulate into a reasonable payoff.

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