Rent controls have split housing in Berlin into two distinct markets • Hacker News Board

Re: Rent controls have split housing in Berlin into two distinct markets

#651

Post by shuckles » Wed, Mar 03, 2021, 4:22 PM UTC

refurb wrote: post #568

nemothekid wrote: post #541

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure those are the amenities that would signify a high end apartment; which probably tracks with the dilution of the brand. Those amenities are pretty standard for most corporate housing, (ex. Avalon's 55 9th[1] has those amenities, but doesn't market itself has luxury). Compare that building with the 181 Fremont[2] in SOMA which has a several private lounges, a doorman, a building concierge, and valet parkin…

Maybe we have different opinions of what qualifies as luxury. My example is in a trendy location and above a whole foods. Based on the price (and the units sold quickly) there are no middle or lower class folks living in those apartments/condos. Like zero. Contrast that with the more spartan apartment buildings building 30-40 years ago. Basic construction, laundry in the basement was the main amenity. These were clea…

Those 40 year old buildings also sell for over a million bucks today, so I suppose by the price definition of luxury, they are a luxury unit as well.

Re: Rent controls have split housing in Berlin into two distinct markets

#652

Post by HotHotLava » Wed, Mar 03, 2021, 4:27 PM UTC

vkou wrote: post #186

el_nahual wrote: post #152

An issue that many commenters here are missing is that the problem with rent control will manifest more sharply in the future. Sure, the impact today seems relatively equitable: a windfall for people that rent today coupled with a small drop in supply. But fast forward 10 or 20 years and the situation looks far worse: everyone who got a windfall today is still living in the same apartment, whereas anyone trying to en…

Kicking people out of their homes doesn't solve the supply problem, because it doesn't create new housing. It just shuffles around who lives in existing houses. If you have a housing problem, and you want to solve it, you need to do two things. 1. Not kick people out of housing that they have. (Because it is incredibly disruptive to people's lives.) 2. Build new housing, until demand is met. Rent control accomplishes…

Even if you put all of your efforts into #2, it will take years from the decision to ramp up the planning and construction efforts until enough houses are actually built to have a noticeable impact on the market. And you still have to do something about the situation in the meantime. That's why the rent freeze in Berlin is limited to 5 years.

Re: Rent controls have split housing in Berlin into two distinct markets

#653

Post by m0llusk » Wed, Mar 03, 2021, 4:40 PM UTC

Talanes wrote: post #525

shuckles wrote: post #483

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt this calculation changes whether a developer chooses $500 or $1000 countertops. New units in San Francisco are not luxury units. Few have luxury amenities like doormen.

Is there a functional difference between places that have a front-desk person and actual doormen, besides opening doors? Not that the former is super-common in San Francisco either, but it's at least existent.

Yes, receiving packages and deliveries has become an extremely valuable amenity.

Re: Rent controls have split housing in Berlin into two distinct markets

#654

Post by shuckles » Wed, Mar 03, 2021, 4:42 PM UTC

nostrademons wrote: post #549

shuckles wrote: post #523

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not quite true. California passed statewide rent control at inflation + 5% in 2019. Now some have moved the goalposts and called that rent stabilization instead of control because it allow rents to increase. New construction is exempt, though.

I thought that was the difference between rent control and rent stabilization. https://www.apartmentguide.com/blog/rent-control-vs-rent-sta... https://rentguidelinesboard.cityofnewyork.us/resources/faqs/... Yep, those are the definitions. It looks like rent stabilization policies are frequently mis-termed "rent control", though.

My point is that the layperson doesn’t appreciate the difference.

Re: Rent controls have split housing in Berlin into two distinct markets

#655

Post by ryan_j_naughton » Wed, Mar 03, 2021, 5:45 PM UTC

konjin wrote: post #430

ryan_j_naughton wrote: post #417

There is no reason why housing cannot be much much cheaper than it is now -- so cheap that it is nearly free. Larry Page, in an interview in 2014 discussed how. "Rather than exceeding $1m, there’s no reason why the median home in Palo Alto, in the heart of Silicon Valley, shouldn’t cost $50,000" [1] and attributed this entirely to a policy problem. The answer is continuously increasing supply in a manner that outpace…

Housing can at most grow as l^3, population can grow as e^n. If you want to be withing t hours of place x then you need transport systems that travel at l/t km/h. Until people have two children or less population will always outpace housing. Anything else is wishful thinking.

> population can grow as e^n

Population growth is slowing worldwide and is below replacement in all major developed countries. Thus, your e^n is only applicable if n is between 0 and 1!

Sure, desirable cities can grow faster than the overall average, so let's put that at somewhere between linear and quadratic -- heavily towards the linear.

Even so, the ability to build at I^3 can easily outstrip that demand with the right policies.

Furthermore, remote work can spread out demand. We are seeing that right now with the pandemic. I believe that the pandemic will be one of the greatest accelerators of globalization due to it's enabling remote work.

As further proof of the slow pace of population growth in developed countries eventually causing an impact on the housing market, look at Japan.

"Government statistics as of 2018 consider 13.6 percent of properties in the country to be ghost houses. Put another way: By 2040, the total size of abandoned properties in Japan is estimated to equal the land size of Austria." [1]

[1] https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/japanese-ghost-houses

Re: Rent controls have split housing in Berlin into two distinct markets

#656

Post by tptacek » Wed, Mar 03, 2021, 5:46 PM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #633

smnrchrds wrote: post #543

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. But it is impossible to prove, so the law never gets enforced.

So Seattle entirely removed the ability of landlords to pick their tenants? Imagine applying that to anything else—must hire the first qualified job applicant, etc.

I don't know, this kind of makes sense. You've presumably rented apartments before. The process is shady as shit. I've been shaken down by several landlords for prepayments, and intrusively interviewed. It must be much worse for Black renters.

And it's how most purchasing works! I go to rent a car, they have to rent me the car if it's available; they can't wait to see if a safer-looking driver is right behind me. Renting an apartment isn't a job interview.

Re: Rent controls have split housing in Berlin into two distinct markets

#657

Post by throwaway12903 » Wed, Mar 03, 2021, 6:16 PM UTC

csunbird wrote: post #283

throwaway12903 wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1.5 years to find an apartment, that is not cheap but bordering the acceptable Curious - how far outside of the center of Berlin did your search extend, and what was your parameters for an acceptable place/rent?

First question: I looked mostly in the center, nothing more than 7 kms away from my workplace. I needed somewhere that I can commute by bike, since the traffic and the fight for parking spaces are too exhausting. S-Bahn is too overcrowded. For your second question, double of the rent cap, two rooms (or maybe 1.5), don't care if the building is old or new. Partly furnished is preferred but I do not mind unfurnished. P…

Confirms my thinking that everyone wants to live in the middle and there isn't enough supply and really not enough space for new supply.

From my anecdotal experience, if all listed rents were double the rent cap, all apartments would still be filled, but lots of people would be locked out of the market.

Classic gentrification problem. I don't know the solution.

I think for foreigners it just means paying a ton more, and just accepting that the value-for-money trade-off when seeing cheaper but more desirable places is not real - because they are mostly unattainable.

Re: Rent controls have split housing in Berlin into two distinct markets

#658

Post by tomatotomato37 » Wed, Mar 03, 2021, 6:36 PM UTC

refurb wrote: post #495

shuckles wrote: post #483

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt this calculation changes whether a developer chooses $500 or $1000 countertops. New units in San Francisco are not luxury units. Few have luxury amenities like doormen.

Think more along the lines of amenities like pools, exercise rooms rather than more spartan buildings that are literally just basic apartments.

That's more like middle-class apartments than actual luxury. The amenities of Luxury apartments include things like exclusive Michelin star restaurants and grand ballrooms for rent.

Re: Rent controls have split housing in Berlin into two distinct markets

#659

Post by shuckles » Wed, Mar 03, 2021, 6:52 PM UTC

refurb wrote: post #527

shuckles wrote: post #520

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Few San Francisco new constructions have pools, and I don’t see how putting some exercise equipment in what would otherwise be a storage closet makes a building luxury. That can’t be more than a few basis points of total project cost.

Pools are a bad example for SF, but here is an example of a luxury condo built in the last few years. I don't disagree that they don't add much to the cost, but they are high-margin offerings - people pay more rent for places that offer these. http://38doloressf.com/amenities/ Amenities: LEED Gold certified, butterfly garden, outdoor living room with fire pit

Are you aware that the space for the outdoor living room and butterfly garden are almost certainly mandated by the planning code’s open space requirements? I suppose the builder could have left them as an unlandscaped pile of dirt, but most of the cost is a statutory requirement.

Re: Rent controls have split housing in Berlin into two distinct markets

#660

Post by junon » Wed, Mar 03, 2021, 7:31 PM UTC

mtrovo wrote: post #615

junon wrote: post #531

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in Berlin. What you're describing in "10 or 20 years" is already the case. That's why these actions are being taken now . I waited 6 months for an apartment here when I first moved. Pretty much everyone who doesn't want to spend insane prices on a unit has to. And even then, I'm still paying 500-600 more than I should be. It's insanity. The main problem is that there are immigrants (primarily from one country…

You don't need the slightly racist comment, biggest problem imho is that house ownership is very low in berlin (last time I read about it was around only 15% of people live on their owned houses) and really hard to change that. You have to think that everytime you're looking at buying a place you're competing with Blackrock, Deutsche Wohne and other not so nice funds with much more room for negotiation than you. That…

A country isn't a race, and I omitted the specific country for the very purpose of not painting a picture based on their skin color, because it has literally nothing to do with it. It's also not a reflection of their character or their culture, either. Please don't mis-assert that it's "racism".

Also, have you been to Berlin? Of course people don't own houses here. Unless you're outside the ring, there are very few houses to be bought. If you're talking about owning apartments within the large houses here, it makes sense that a lot of people don't want to own them - because not a lot of young people want to be tied down to a 40sqm unit in one part of the city for the rest of their lives, or deal with all of the hassle of subletting and the tenancy laws here unless they were serious about holding and nurturing those securities.