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National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report

nscai.gov

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Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report

#51
post #20

At 756 pages, this looks to be longer than many textbooks. > Microelectronics power all AI, and the United States no longer manufactures the world’s most sophisticated chips. We do not want to overstate the precariousness of our position, but given that the vast majority of cutting-edge chips are produced at a single plant separated by just 110 miles of water from our principal strategic competitor, we must reevaluat…

It really is a concern just how dependent the entire world is on TSMC. "The best human operator cannot defend against multiple machines making thousands of maneuvers per second potentially moving at hypersonic speeds and orchestrated by AI across domains." Attacks by drone swarms are already here. The first one was Syria vs. Russia in 2018.[1] There was an attack on Saudi oil facilities in 2019.[2] Much of this has l…

I think looking at it as the USA 'falling behind in manufacturing' isn't quite the right lens to use when looking at the strategic issues here. I'm not saying you're wrong, I just want to tease out some of the issues and assumptions.

The strategic concern they are raising is not economic, it's a security issue and the two are quite different. From the strategic security view it doesn't matter so much who makes these products, what matters is ensuring continuity of availability on the one hand and excluding interference or compromises of the integrity of the supply chain on the other. The latter is to do with things like an opponent interfering in the quality of parts, introducing backdoors and such.

In these two views of course on shore manufacturing is easier to secure in both senses, but that's a side effect not an absolute. For example if the USA had sovereign territory next to China, a fab there would still be highly vulnerable to interference in the physical supply while a fab in Canada next to the US border would be much more physically secure from Chinese or Russian interference. From a security perspective there's nothing magical about being on US territory.

A lot of these debates seem to very rapidly pivot into discussions about on shore US manufacturing and falling behind technologically, where what they're really talking about is skills and economic benefits. Those are a very different issue though.

Even looking just at the technology it's not a simple calculation either. The best lithography systems are manufactured in Holland, any fab anywhere wanting to use the best processes is dependent on them and these are the most critical parts of the process. The location of the fab is just one part of the puzzle. In today's highly integrated world no one country can even hope to own all the essential elements in high tech supply, chain. The common simplistic view of iPhone manufacturing is another example of this. The majority of the most advanced components in an iPhone to this day aren't made in China. The camera module in Japanese, the CPUs come from Taiwan, flash memory and batteries mostly from South Korea and Japan I think, Gorilla glass I'm not sure about now, it used to be made in the US. Only final assembly and some low value components are Chinese, and yet iPhones are 'Made in China'. Would moving low value, low skilled final assembly really benefit the USA all that much? That's a more extreme example, but from a supply chain and technology point of view it's the same (to a much lesser extent to be sure) with chip fabs. Critical components come from all sorts of different countries and companies.

So ok building more advanced fabs in the US is a sensible move on a whole variety of axes, but it doesn't solve all of the problems and even when it does, it's not always for the most obvious reasons.

Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report

#52

At 756 pages, this looks to be longer than many textbooks. > Microelectronics power all AI, and the United States no longer manufactures the world’s most sophisticated chips. We do not want to overstate the precariousness of our position, but given that the vast majority of cutting-edge chips are produced at a single plant separated by just 110 miles of water from our principal strategic competitor, we must reevaluat…

While true about management, TSMC does operate a number of facilities around the world: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC#Facilities

Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report

#53
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder how many countries today are not in war simply because of fear of retaliation from the USA.

Say what you (or Kubrick) will about mutually assured destruction, it sure does seem to have prevented a lot of violence, despite also seeming totally insane.

I never got that logic—the US has been in armed conflict in various forms since the end of WWII, whether directly or through the CIA. It seems more like nukes enable violence from my perspective.

Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report

#54
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Say what you (or Kubrick) will about mutually assured destruction, it sure does seem to have prevented a lot of violence, despite also seeming totally insane.

I never got that logic—the US has been in armed conflict in various forms since the end of WWII, whether directly or through the CIA. It seems more like nukes enable violence from my perspective.

The world was a much more violent place before pax americana.

Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report

#55
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Say what you (or Kubrick) will about mutually assured destruction, it sure does seem to have prevented a lot of violence, despite also seeming totally insane.

I never got that logic—the US has been in armed conflict in various forms since the end of WWII, whether directly or through the CIA. It seems more like nukes enable violence from my perspective.

Being involved in conflicts where hundreds or thousands die is mostly preferable to being involved in wars where tens or hundreds of thousands die.

Overall violent death is down on planet Earth drastically over time.

Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report

#56
post #51
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really is a concern just how dependent the entire world is on TSMC. "The best human operator cannot defend against multiple machines making thousands of maneuvers per second potentially moving at hypersonic speeds and orchestrated by AI across domains." Attacks by drone swarms are already here. The first one was Syria vs. Russia in 2018.[1] There was an attack on Saudi oil facilities in 2019.[2] Much of this has l…

I think looking at it as the USA 'falling behind in manufacturing' isn't quite the right lens to use when looking at the strategic issues here. I'm not saying you're wrong, I just want to tease out some of the issues and assumptions. The strategic concern they are raising is not economic, it's a security issue and the two are quite different. From the strategic security view it doesn't matter so much who makes these…

Falling behind in manufacturing seems to include the entire supply chain, not just fabs. Global supply chains are fragile, so we’d do well to build as much physical infrastructure and expertise on shore as possible. This is a policy problem more than anything else.

Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report

#57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> While we have been busy de-educating our new generations and worshiping idiots like Bernie and AOC, the Chinese worked hard and went from an agricultural society to the second economy in the world. It is exactly people like Bernie and AOC who are likely to bring manufacturing back to the USA, instead of letting corporations continue to outsource every last job they can to save a dollar on labor. The current predica…

>>> Instead of US companies having to buy goods from foreign companies, they can just buy the factories and manufacture their own goods with foreign labor. Instead of a free international market for goods, this created a free international market for labor, and a global distributed planned economy I have never thought of the analysis like that. Things like Ricardos law assume countries are independent agents intermed…

Offshoring was almost always about labor. Wall Street wanted higher returns, so the jobs went to cheaper labor pools.

Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report

#58
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you suggesting they are not?

I'm not sure how you could come to that conclusion based on my questions. China's place on the world stage is largely dependent on having customers. If there is no where for them to sell their manufactured goods, then they are not in a position of power.

Triggers for war can become complex, and individual blame may be hard to find.

Prior to the First World War there was a view that economical interests would prevent war as well. http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/06/27/world-w...

Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report

#59
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Say what you (or Kubrick) will about mutually assured destruction, it sure does seem to have prevented a lot of violence, despite also seeming totally insane.

I never got that logic—the US has been in armed conflict in various forms since the end of WWII, whether directly or through the CIA. It seems more like nukes enable violence from my perspective.

It’s like the big brother who says, “nobody can tease my sister except me.” There’s less teasing— he’s the only one doing it.

But I’m with you, on balance wmds are terrible things. One use of them could outweigh all the violence they prevented.

Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report

#60
post #46
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There’s also the fact that a war between China and Taiwan is almost certainly going to go hot with the USA too, possibly leading to nuclear exchanges… There was an article in The Economist a couple of weeks ago saying that that may no longer be the case, I mean the US automatically siding with Taiwan in case of China's aggression. Take that as you will, I looked at it as an establishment mouthpiece airing valid con…

This, I guess: https://www.economist.com/china/2021/02/20/china-faces-fatef... Seems to me it's concerned about "America’s ability to deter an invasion over Taiwan", not about it "showing resolve when talking about China and Taiwan".

Not being able means not being willing at this level, meaning geopolitics and given the US’s existing financial means.
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