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Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

heraldscotland.com

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Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#91

Post by nickpp »

jedberg wrote: post #85
mchusma wrote: post #75

The UKs adoption of First Dose First is amazing and inspiring in a time when governments worldwide seem unable to operate effectively. There are 2 things every country can do to save lives that have effectively zero cost and zero negative externalities: - lifting lingering vaccine bans (the US's ban of AZ is most glaring) - first dose first - the evidence is overwhelming at this point. These two things, which could b…

> the US's ban of AZ is most glaring People said the same thing about the US's ban on thalidomide until it turned out they were right. In this case I'm ok with a little conservatism on the part of the FDA. The US is already in 4th place on vaccinations per capita, just barely behind the UK, without either of those policies. Copying from my comment below, a bunch of other examples of times when the FDA was right and E…

It's been over 50 years since the thalidomide tragedy. Do you still let plane crashes of last century direct your choice of transportation?

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#92

Post by ytwySXpMbS »

jedberg wrote: post #87
prox wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is first dose first?

The UK's policy of making sure everyone gets their first dose of the two dose vaccines before most everyone gets their second, setting the second dose at 3 months instead of 3-4 weeks.

This isn’t quite right. The UK has delayed second doses to 3 months after the first dose to enable more people to get their first dose quicker. The plan is all adults vaccinated by September, and they certainly aren’t delaying second doses until then.

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#93

Post by hinkley »

taeric wrote: post #80
mikepurvis wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"the stark drops we are seeing do seen surprisingly sharp" Surely that suggests an unnatural cause, such as millions of vaccine doses being rolled out, specifically targeting the most vulnerable (LTC residents) and those most likely to catch/spread the virus (medical profession, first responders, front line workers)?

The argument is, if that were the case, it would be sharper than the natural charts of corona viruses otherwise. To be clear, I first saw this pushed by some epis on Twitter as caution to get to hopeful that we are seeing the vaccines as a resounding success so early in their rollout. It is expected that the vaccines are needed, but the dramatic drop was pushed as likely unrelated. I will try and dig up the tweets. C…

Could it be that there's a strain that results in largely asymptomatic cases and there is not enough data on those people? That could result in a decline now due to competition, or the slope of the line is historically wrong due to invisible statistics.

I know there has been some trouble identifying antibodies in people who were exposed months ago. So if you aren't really sick, you only get counted (maybe) if someone in your circle gets really sick.

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#94

Post by swayvil »

loveistheanswer wrote: post #31

Until we have challenge trials, how do we know whether or not other variables, such as natural herd immunity and seasonality are not also significant contributing factors to the 'substantial reduction'?

Or maybe they just lied about the numbers and the whole story is pure fabrication from the start.

I wouldn't believe any of those guys.

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#96

Post by malandrew »

loveistheanswer wrote: post #31

Until we have challenge trials, how do we know whether or not other variables, such as natural herd immunity and seasonality are not also significant contributing factors to the 'substantial reduction'?

Isn't there also a confounding factor that the vaccinations were largely introduced following the thanksgiving and christmas infection events. Even without a vaccine, I would have expected hospitalizations to fall approximately 1 to 1.5 months after the Christmas holiday.

Basically, we had many clusters of fresh unburnt tinder (the household covid pod) and the Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday was a perfect event for many people to "just this one time" break quarantine protocol, leading to the many infections we saw. That's a 2-3 week increase in direct hospitalizations from those events, and then you have another 2-3 weeks of indirect hospitalizations impacting the remaining members of each covid pod. Anecdotally, I've personally witnessed this happen as I know fare more people that acquired immunity from becoming infected during the holidays than for most of last year.

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#97

Post by foolmeonce »

woeirua wrote: post #74
loveistheanswer wrote: post #31

Until we have challenge trials, how do we know whether or not other variables, such as natural herd immunity and seasonality are not also significant contributing factors to the 'substantial reduction'?

Because you look at similar cohorts at the same time. So if group A has received the vaccine, but group B has not, and they're being observed during the same time/geographical area, and the groups are sufficiently randomized otherwise, then you would expect to capture the effect of any other confounding variables. Given the large number of people vaccinated so far, and the magnitude of the effect it's pretty safe to…

Sounds like cherry picking to me. Doctors know if you have been vaccinated when making this decision. I.e. perhaps 90% of people with 1 dose who are admitted are serious enough to need intensive care vs a small percentage of non-vaccinated patients admitted more often as a precaution.

I guess everyone here thinks double blind trials are for fools?

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#98

Post by malandrew »

hinkley wrote: post #54
loveistheanswer wrote: post #31

Until we have challenge trials, how do we know whether or not other variables, such as natural herd immunity and seasonality are not also significant contributing factors to the 'substantial reduction'?

Why would seasonality be coming up now when we're a year into this thing? Do you think we got a break at the beginning that we didn't identify in the numbers?

Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday were both events where many people that were diligent about quarantine protocol for the past year decided to break protocol "just this once" because it involved the two primary holidays for gathering with loved ones.

Re: Covid vaccination linked to 'substantial reduction' in hospital admissions

#99

Post by [deleted] »

AndrewBissell wrote: post #77
bawolff wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because its still winter and herd immunity from natural infections is a gradual process not a steep cliff? At the very least it seems like those factors could be accounted for.

Seasonal viruses often peak before the official end of winter. The key date may be the winter solstice in late December when sun exposure reaches its minimum.

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