71–80 of 361 posts
Until we have challenge trials, how do we know whether or not other variables, such as natural herd immunity and seasonality are not also significant contributing factors to the 'substantial reduction'?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't mean to imply that this is your intention at all, but it's a false choice. Both questions are interesting; no need to set them up as if they were in tension with one another.
I meant less interesting as in all the studies/trials have already confirmed that the vaccines significantly reduce severe symptoms...the effect on transmission is still an open question from what I understand.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The UK is giving both doses. It's just that they are spacing them out at 12 weeks instead of 3-4 weeks. Are they doing that for all vaccines, or just the Oxford/AstraZeneca one? Because that appears to be the recommended and most effective interval for the Oxford vaccine, but not for the others. (Note that the mix of vaccines approved for use differs considerably from country to country; Oxford/AstraZeneca is not i…
They're doing it for both Oxford/AstraZeneca and Pfizer, which are the two approved vaccines in the UK at the moment.
Until we have challenge trials, how do we know whether or not other variables, such as natural herd immunity and seasonality are not also significant contributing factors to the 'substantial reduction'?
Given the large number of people vaccinated so far, and the magnitude of the effect it's pretty safe to say that the vaccine is causing a significant reduction in hospitalizations independent from the broader background trend towards lower prevalence of the disease overall.
There are 2 things every country can do to save lives that have effectively zero cost and zero negative externalities:
- lifting lingering vaccine bans (the US's ban of AZ is most glaring)
- first dose first - the evidence is overwhelming at this point.
These two things, which could be done almost certainly by Biden alone (in the US), would allow possibly everyone who wants a vaccine to get one by the end of March, instead of July with the current projections. And this decision is effectively zero risk.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why would seasonality be coming up now when we're a year into this thing? Do you think we got a break at the beginning that we didn't identify in the numbers?
I think it has been shown that standard corona seasonality shows the same shape of all case loads we have seen? That is, most of the recovery we saw last year going into summer could potentially be explained by regular cycles of similar viruses in the areas. The impression being that that could also explain or current recovery. It is not an argument against vaccination. And I haven't seen people pushing we have heard…
Surely that suggests an unnatural cause, such as millions of vaccine doses being rolled out, specifically targeting the most vulnerable (LTC residents) and those most likely to catch/spread the virus (medical profession, first responders, front line workers)?
Until we have challenge trials, how do we know whether or not other variables, such as natural herd immunity and seasonality are not also significant contributing factors to the 'substantial reduction'?
Because its still winter and herd immunity from natural infections is a gradual process not a steep cliff? At the very least it seems like those factors could be accounted for.
Until we have challenge trials, how do we know whether or not other variables, such as natural herd immunity and seasonality are not also significant contributing factors to the 'substantial reduction'?
Best you could do with a challenge trial is to get faster to the results we already have. These vaccines work. We know that. This is just observational data supporting that what works in trials also works in the real world (which is not particularly surprising).
The UKs adoption of First Dose First is amazing and inspiring in a time when governments worldwide seem unable to operate effectively. There are 2 things every country can do to save lives that have effectively zero cost and zero negative externalities: - lifting lingering vaccine bans (the US's ban of AZ is most glaring) - first dose first - the evidence is overwhelming at this point. These two things, which could b…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think it has been shown that standard corona seasonality shows the same shape of all case loads we have seen? That is, most of the recovery we saw last year going into summer could potentially be explained by regular cycles of similar viruses in the areas. The impression being that that could also explain or current recovery. It is not an argument against vaccination. And I haven't seen people pushing we have heard…
"the stark drops we are seeing do seen surprisingly sharp" Surely that suggests an unnatural cause, such as millions of vaccine doses being rolled out, specifically targeting the most vulnerable (LTC residents) and those most likely to catch/spread the virus (medical profession, first responders, front line workers)?
To be clear, I first saw this pushed by some epis on Twitter as caution to get to hopeful that we are seeing the vaccines as a resounding success so early in their rollout. It is expected that the vaccines are needed, but the dramatic drop was pushed as likely unrelated.
I will try and dig up the tweets. Could be they have changed their minds with more data.
Also, my first sentence was a question as I am not sure that is what the opening post meant.
Edit: https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1363866144029949952?s=19 had a recent discussion where this came up. (Looking for epis in this one, but not finding them.:( )
Edit: https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1363551912021221377?s=1... is a look at a drop without vaccines