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Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing

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Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing

#231
post #67

It doesn't much matter to me if its crypto currency or real goods, when markets, stock exchanges float, I think we're insane. The marketplace should not of itself be valuable. If it is, its extraction of value for the goods/utility being traded. Its rent seeking. The only possible value derives from what is a tax on trades by volume and value, to NOT fund the engine which runs the trades. Sure Lloyd's of London is pr…

What underlying value does btc buy or hold? It's rarely accepted anywhere. How can it be made stable? It's risky to invest large sums in if it can just collapse at any time. Is it even demonstrably secure against the potential of malicious original owners/operators running away with large sums of money? If there are original owners/operators, where's the governance, paper trail, and audit of them? What if there are s…

> Is it even demonstrably secure against the potential of malicious original owners/operators running away with large sums of money?

Are you talking about Bitcoin itself here? There are no operators holding your money. It's secured by standard cryptography implemented in open source code, and the entire ledger is public.

There are developers who fix bugs that come up, and make minor improvements to the protocol occasionally. Ultimately it's everybody running the software who decides whether the changes actually deploy.

(If you're talking about Coinbase, they do hold your money and they are regulated and audited.)

Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing

#232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Certainly. Just look at some of the people on Etsy. Some of them are pure artists who do what they do because they love it, not because they were hoping become a 100M brand some day. Some of them make good money because their products are so great and unique. But those same people are generally not looking to sell their company.

You don't think an Etsy artist who became popular enough to hire employees and make a large brand would ever sell shares of their business? Or is that type of Etsy user immoral/incorrect? Not clear to me what point you're making here.

Why did they create their Etsy store? Was it to make as much money as possible? If the goal is just to make money then they should cash out at the peak of their brand.

Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing

#233
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something similar that intrigued me recently is that Airbnb is valued at more than all the USA publicly listed hotel chains put together (Marriott etc)

In that case, the comparison is between a capital-efficient tech company and a real estate management company where capital is tied up in real estate around the world. If there's a similar distinction between the business models of Coinbase and e.g. CME Group, I have yet to hear it.

> If there's a similar distinction between the business models of Coinbase and e.g. CME Group, I have yet to hear it.

Traditional finance and crypto finance are often hard to compare, but here's a surface level comparison: Coinbase is an exchange, a brokerage, and a clearing house all wrapped into one. I'm not aware of entity in traditional finance that is all three, though plenty are two out of three (Robinhood is a brokerage and clearing house, CME is an exchange and clearing house).

Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing

#234
post #98

One important thing to note is that these are secondary transactions and not where the stock may potentially trade. Secondly, Coinbase doesn’t allow any secondary transactions, this was a company sponsored (approved) secondary. As a result this created immense scarcity so you can see how much the price changes just in these limited sales. Third, as we saw with the last bull run of Bitcoin everything with blockchain i…

>> When you look at the old staples like Coca-Cola they haven’t appreciated during this time. Pretty tough to eat appreciation; meanwhile Coca-Cola (and all those other old, boring companies) pays ~ 3.5% dividends annually. I'm sick of companies using my money for free to only fund their own growth.

Long term capital gain taxes are lower than dividend taxes which are taxed as income, no?

Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing

#235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some if it is time and experience. Seeing markets come and go, seeing valuations come and go. You could perhaps study historical markets to gain some of that, but there is no better teacher than going through it (including taking some beatings along the way, along the process of learning and instilling discipline). The absolute easiest things to look for (things most anybody can do), is growth vs valuation, along wit…

I find it interesting that BRK did not sell any SNOW in its latest 13F. They own 12% of SNOW...

Yeah they don't tend to talk very openly about who is doing the buying for what. Occasionally in the last few years Buffett will indicate if it was him specifically buying something, usually outsized positions.

I think either Ted or Todd is likely is doing the buying on Snowflake (at least instigated the premise), perhaps with Buffett's sign-off (given it's an increasingly large position). I also think one of the other buyers is likely responsible for Berkshire's position in VRSN.

There's a high risk that Snowflake position will humiliate Berkshire Hathaway. I think it's a mistake. It wouldn't be Berkshire's first mistake in dabbling in tech but it looks like it could be the biggest.

I have great respect for Buffett's historical performance, however I consider him mostly done at this point. He's conservatively managing the end game of his career now, he seems to be intentionally avoiding doing anything that might stretch beyond his lifetime now (I don't think he wants to do anything that might need a decade to manage that he might have to offload onto the next person). I think he should have taken advantage of KHC's weakness for example, to strip Heinz back out of the conglomerate and break it up and sell off the rest of Kraft, the stock was so cheap at times you could have almost gotten Heinz for free in the process. Instead Buffett is sitting on a hundred plus billion dollars yielding squat (KHC was down to near half the market cap it currently sports, which was the general time to grab it to try to get the Heinz business, and then sell off the lesser pieces, either after you repair what was ailing KHC or immediately depending).

Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing

#236
post #79

What about the environmental impact / physical limitations of cryptomining? At this point BTC alone consumes more energy than Argentina ( https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-56012952)- will legislators allow this to continue? Will it even be possible for it to continue much further?

Most crypto mining is done with renewables because it’s the cheapest kWh when you don’t have to factor in energy storage.

And? If miners use it, it means John Doe needs to use coal power to charge his Tesla instead of renewables because the mining setup next to the hydro plant is gobbling it all up.

Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing

#237
post #145

Only tangentially related: How do bitcoin network costs scale with market price? We can expect the marginal cost to mine a coin to scale with price. So if btc worth $52,000 then people will invest on average $52,000 in equipment and electricity. There are 6.5 coins mined every 10 min. So daily network cost approximates to 6.5 * 6 * 24 * $52,000 = $48,000,000 This is not strictly accurate as past equipment costs less…

stock exchanges separate (and occasionally reacquire for commercial reasons) trading from custodian services.

I'm not at all up to date but I long ago presumed bitcoin needed to move to a custody transfer market instead of processing on the block chain and the expense involved or beholden attachment that creates to a miner.

if Citi (eg) will lend me to trade against collateral of my existing holdings finding risk less (cp counterparty and ops*) liquidity from stock borrowers (typically short players) and happily create a new income that's limited by the value at risk of my trading up to my collateral underlying assets and therefore greater than the principal, surely so can Coinbase. I assumed that was why the London Stock Exchange invested in them.

edit I forgot *: see Herstatt Risk inherent in closing currency cash dealing causing the eponymous bank's failure in 1974. possibly more interesting to today was a year earlier in the Cedar Bank crisis in '73 that although little known was the most existential threat to the markets certainly pre LTCM and I'd say still far more dangerous. relevant today because Cedar was a pseudo official shadow bank living by profits from high risk secondary mortgage loans. Cedar was only a bank under a statutory loophole the infamous (to my career at least) Section 123 of the English banking act. interestingly none of the UK so called challenger banks are clearing banks the only new one in 400 years is a white label specialist running on Azure called Clear.bank at that url. a notable lot of UK transactions are happening on Azure with Clear.

Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing

#238
post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've mentioned three items that have experienced specific inflation at higher than the general rate of inflation (but even then mostly not at rates anywhere in the remote neighborhood that would qualify as hyperinflation [> +50%/month] even if they were the rate of general inflation.) So,yeah, when even the rapidly inflating segments aren't anywhere close to hyperinflation, it's pretty clearly not general hyperinfl…

They also just listed the set of the largest expenses for a vast majority of our society (even if you don't pay for education)

> They also just listed the set of the largest expenses for a vast majority of our society

Buying a house is an asset acquisition, not an expense. Housing is an expense (and typically the single greatest household expenses), but that expense has increased in price less than home prices.

The next greatest expenses are food and transportation.

Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing

#239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't think an Etsy artist who became popular enough to hire employees and make a large brand would ever sell shares of their business? Or is that type of Etsy user immoral/incorrect? Not clear to me what point you're making here.

Why did they create their Etsy store? Was it to make as much money as possible? If the goal is just to make money then they should cash out at the peak of their brand.

What I meant to convey with my original reply is that making as much money as possible and trying to improve society aren't necessarily mutually exclusive. Then you proceeded to seemingly present a mutual exclusion of either someone making art for art's sake or making art simply to make as much money as they can.

Re: Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing

#240
post #228
post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inflation isn't high at all. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA

CPI might not be high, but inflation can show itself in different places. Asset inflation has been increasingly high since 2019, which is clearly visible in stock market, real estate and commodity markets. Similarly, construction materials are up significantly. It may or may not show up in consumer prices eventually.

Sure, but this is not inflation. Inflation is an increase in the price level. When some prices are up and others down so that there is no general increase in prices, we cannot speak of inflation.
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