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Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

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Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#181

Post by scottLobster »

orwin wrote: post #174
scottLobster wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uh, my paper dollar is backed by the might of the US government and the US economy. It's a lot more than just "shared acceptance". Countries couldn't just switch off the US dollar reserve currency for international trade without massive economic repercussions, which is why no country or set of countries has developed a viable alternative to the dollar for a global reserve currency. It's not like China/Russia wouldn't…

> Hell a large chunk of internal European trade is still done in dollars on the back-end. No. Internal trade is balanced with target2.

Right, but to my knowledge target2 doesn't preclude the use of other exchanges. It wouldn't be illegal for say, Spain to convert to dollars and then back to Euros when selling to France. I'm having a hard time finding the statistics I read a few years back, and maybe things have changed or I was misinformed, but I remember reading while most internal EU trade is settled in Euros a significant amount was still settled in dollars for a variety of reasons (legacy systems and such).

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#182

Post by Shorel »

kirse wrote: post #83

As I watch the total crypto market cap shoot through the roof over the past year, one thing I've been wondering is what will stop a global "bank run" on the exchanges when/if something like this does happen? I was reading thru Coinbase's own insurance wording, and it's clear they dance around it by saying: To the extent these funds are held as USD in U.S. banks, they are maintained as pooled custodial accounts at one…

If it is not in your own personal wallet, you don't have it.

A friend recently got his BTC stolen in one of these online wallets, which are not wallets at all.

I advise no one to keep their money in exchanges.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#183

Post by 38911BBF »

solosoyokaze wrote: post #12
HarryHirsch wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it is intrinsically valuable How? As an intrinsically valuable means of speculation because sound investment opportunities are absent?

It has a social network effect of people who agree that it's the store of value for the future. Your paper dollar bill has very little intrinsic value. It's just a shared acceptance.

I can pay my taxes with a paper dollar bill.

That's not just shared acceptance because even if the mighty USD should crumble and fall, a US citizen will still be able to pay the taxman with a dollar bill which is in itself of great value.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#184

Post by jwblackwell »

jMyles wrote: post #11
bhouston wrote: post #5

Bitcoin is powered by a shared belief in its value. While it has been powered by scams as well, couch couch Tether, tt seems to be getting more adherents to believing that it is intrinsically valuable. The fact that it tends to go up so quickly also yields to FOMO. Because Bitcoin is just shared belief, it is hard to dispel that belief via real-world events such as earnings releases and other things that affect more…

> I could see it being banned by the US government and others... It's difficult to imagine this causing the price to go any direction other than up.

It would likely cause a short term shock, especially if people were forced to sell quickly. Essentially a lot of shorter term traders would quickly exit the market.

Though in the longer run, assuming the network stays up (I see no reason why not), I also think it would strengthen the case and we'd see prices continue to climb.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#185

Post by llcoolv »

ggreer wrote: post #172
llcoolv wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, here is a great article by Juraj Bednar (close the slushpool people): https://juraj.bednar.io/en/blog-en/2020/11/12/how-could-regu... BTW Juraj is a great source on anything crypto-related. And from what I now there has been no resistance from the pools so far (at least the EU/US-based ones, though in China it is probably even more difficult.)

That post explains how it might be possible for someone with 10% of mining power (and 100% of legal power) to block certain transactions. Nowhere in that post does it claim that such an attack has succeeded or that mining pools are collaborating with governments.

It is not an attack since by current market conditions there wouldn't be the need for an attack. The owners of the mining pools are not stupid and BTC is not an anonymous (and FREEEEEE whatever this means) currency these days. I hope we can agree on at least this fact.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#187

Post by megameter »

mvind wrote: post #137

One point as a researcher working in a central bank and studying state-of-the art macroeconomic theory, is the absolute conviction that some crypto holders have that society is rotten to the core and that the financial industry (and for that matter the broader well established large cap economy) is a malfunctioning/rotten machine only benefiting the 1%. I mean reading journals on monetary policy transmission, central…

I do think everyone saying "this can't go on forever" is correct, but lacks the imagination to describe the possible scenarios, and instead points to the speculation and energy/capital consumption as a given. But it's not a bubble in the usual sense - the miners and speculators are encouraging each other, giving pricing a rising base and profitable peaks over the course of multiple market cycles. That base will keep rising with spending on mining.

To me, the most probable outcome would be that as mining network consolidates and it gets harder to acquire more power, it becomes urgent to support the price by finding other sources of value to attach to the chain being mined, so we end up in a scenario where mining firms(which will increasingly mingle within the nation-state system) sponsor new coins and applications with additional social value.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#188

Post by xiphias2 »

hobofan wrote: post #108
xiphias2 wrote: post #38

I still remember the good times on HN when the front page didn't have links to ,,Trolly McTrollface''.

Strange, I don't. I remember HN as a page where many blog posts had a chance, independent of the pseudonymity and ridiculousness of their author's username.

Independent and pseudonym is OK and encouraged, but ridicoulus / no responsibility for trying to be correct is very different from the cool/fun/hacker culture that is looking for the truth.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#189

Post by qot »

loceng wrote: post #77
desmap wrote: post #22

@dang, you should think about adding a disclaimer to every crypto-related submission, just regex the title with the typical key words to catch them, with something like: Be aware that crypto-related submissions like this one might be intended to trigger or influence a wanted market behavior by OP.

Also @dang, should require every user to add a tag/label that will show us if they are a Bitcoin speculator/owner, and would be great if then upvotes/downvotes had a stat that was viewable to see what % of upvotes/downvotes posts or comments have are by those who are financially incentivized for Bitcoin to succeed. Edit to add: what are the odds this comment would be downvoted in a Bitcoin thread? Would be great to s…

We should also add a sour grapes label for people who missed out on Bitcoin despite being the "tech wizard" of their family and resent it.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#190

Post by lftl »

llcoolv wrote: post #158
lftl wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't heard about the mining pools collaborating on censorship. Do you have any sources I can read up on?

Sure, here is a great article by Juraj Bednar (close the slushpool people): https://juraj.bednar.io/en/blog-en/2020/11/12/how-could-regu... BTW Juraj is a great source on anything crypto-related. And from what I now there has been no resistance from the pools so far (at least the EU/US-based ones, though in Chine it is probably even more difficult.)

This seems to nicely lay out how the censorship may happen and be implemented. But it only briefly touches on one small example of censorship currently taking place. Is there anything else to support this portion of your previous post?

> Not to mention that all the major mining pools have voluntarily chosen to collaborate with governments on censoring the blockchain, etc.

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