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Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

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Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#151

Post by nostrademons »

Makes sense. Most of the folks who have been in Bitcoin 6+ years have observed multiple crashes, exchanges going bust, Bitcoins vanishing into the ether (no pun intended), and people being unable to recover their assets.

People hold Bitcoin as insurance against the dollar collapsing. It makes no sense to assume that both Bitcoin and dollars will be circulating currencies: currency is a winner-take-all market, the most widely-accepted one will win. The Bitcoin price is a superposition of those who believe that Bitcoin is going to infinity and the dollar will become worthless, and those who believe that Bitcoin is going to zero and the dollar will retain its position as the global reserve currency.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#152

Post by lftl »

llcoolv wrote: post #24
aminozuur wrote: post #14

I hope the price tanks so that BTC will be primarily used for its intended purpose, like it was in the Silk Road days.

Silk road days are gone. Ulbrich got disproportionately punished + convicted on very very dubious hired gun charges. Since then a similar approach was applied on almost every darknet marketplace around, resulting in that these days with BTC at ATH the darknet marketplaces are at an all-time crisis (even though legacy media is still pushing the "criminal's money" narrative :/). Not to mention that all the major mining…

I haven't heard about the mining pools collaborating on censorship. Do you have any sources I can read up on?

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#153

Post by 6gvONxR4sf7o »

centimeter wrote: post #70
goda90 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe we can focus on crypto that doesn't have such high electricity demands for that purpose.

Maybe when someone invents a “free” consensus scheme that actually competes with PoW’s security properties. There are plenty of reasons to suspect this isn’t possible.

If proof of work is necessary, how much work does proof of work need to do fundamentally? Is there any reason a cryptocurrency can’t be made that uses very little energy?

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#154

Post by _fs »

The whole "hackernews desperately up-voting any post that cast's negative light on the investment opportunity that they missed" shtick is getting old. We get it, a lot of you knew about bitcoin in 2011 and did not buy in. Now, you are seeing it rise (and fall) over and over and are frustrated that you did not buy a couple hundred dollars worth of bitcoin 8 years ago.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#155

Post by ffggvv »

Hydraulix989 wrote: post #103
ffggvv wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yes this analogy works because amazon ships billions in packages with almost a trillion in revenue and btc can be replicated by a sql database

I would suggest gaining additional technical familiarity about block chains if you genuinely believe they are equivalent to centralized relational databases. That's just flat-out incorrect and untrue.

i bought bitcoin and understood block chains in 2013. just because someone disagrees with you doesn’t mean they are dumb. and maybe sometimes you’re the one that doesn’t know what you’re talking about

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#156

Post by llcoolv »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #120
solosoyokaze wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US would never switch to BTC as legal tender because they can't control the supply of BTC. BTC is "clean" money in that it doesn't have the blood of millions and an imperialistic army powering it. The energy usage by BTC is a drop in the bucket compared to the ecological damage wreaked by the US military.

> US would never switch to BTC as legal tender because they can't control the supply of BTC Most evidence shows the U.S. no longer benefits from the dollar as a global reserve currency. And lots of governments have currency boards or currencies they don’t control.

This is a quite dubious claim:

1. The currency board countries are very small players, mostly beaten to blue and also not all currency boards are tied to USD.

2. The bulk (I guess 90%+) of global lending is still in USD - a currency which the Fed can debase at will - as has been happening since 2008 and happened at a grande scale in 2020.

This brings only frustration and bitterness - the last two things you want in international relations, especially in the post-nuclear age soft-power days.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#157

Post by companyhen »

Tepix wrote: post #85
companyhen wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is why Uniswap and other AMM DEX's are on the rise https://medium.com/dragonfly-research/what-explains-the-rise...

Uniswap is not very valuable with the current high fees.

That won't be a problem for long, it's the early days for crypto still scaling.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#158

Post by llcoolv »

lftl wrote: post #152
llcoolv wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Silk road days are gone. Ulbrich got disproportionately punished + convicted on very very dubious hired gun charges. Since then a similar approach was applied on almost every darknet marketplace around, resulting in that these days with BTC at ATH the darknet marketplaces are at an all-time crisis (even though legacy media is still pushing the "criminal's money" narrative :/). Not to mention that all the major mining…

I haven't heard about the mining pools collaborating on censorship. Do you have any sources I can read up on?

Sure, here is a great article by Juraj Bednar (close the slushpool people): https://juraj.bednar.io/en/blog-en/2020/11/12/how-could-regu...

BTW Juraj is a great source on anything crypto-related. And from what I now there has been no resistance from the pools so far (at least the EU/US-based ones, though in Chine it is probably even more difficult.)

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#159

Post by llcoolv »

ggreer wrote: post #99
llcoolv wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Silk road days are gone. Ulbrich got disproportionately punished + convicted on very very dubious hired gun charges. Since then a similar approach was applied on almost every darknet marketplace around, resulting in that these days with BTC at ATH the darknet marketplaces are at an all-time crisis (even though legacy media is still pushing the "criminal's money" narrative :/). Not to mention that all the major mining…

Ulbrich was never convicted of a violent crime. (Though plenty of evidence did show he tried to commit murder-for-hire.) He was convicted of money laundering, conspiracy to commit computer hacking, and conspiracy to traffic narcotics.[1] For this he was sentenced to two life sentences plus 40 years. > Not to mention that all the major mining pools have voluntarily chosen to collaborate with governments on censoring t…

Sure, here is a great article by Juraj Bednar (close the slushpool people): https://juraj.bednar.io/en/blog-en/2020/11/12/how-could-regu...

BTW Juraj is a great source on anything crypto-related. And from what I now there has been no resistance from the pools so far (at least the EU/US-based ones, though in China it is probably even more difficult.)

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#160

Post by llcoolv »

throw8932894 wrote: post #149
mvind wrote: post #137

One point as a researcher working in a central bank and studying state-of-the art macroeconomic theory, is the absolute conviction that some crypto holders have that society is rotten to the core and that the financial industry (and for that matter the broader well established large cap economy) is a malfunctioning/rotten machine only benefiting the 1%. I mean reading journals on monetary policy transmission, central…

I think their opinions were validated quite well. If I would listen to my crazy anarcho-capitalist friend, I would be millionaire today. Other side is represented by Trump...

A lot of the people I know who were an-cap 10 years ago are millionaires today. At least from my circle. The problem is that the money-printing people are billionaires and it is a game you simply cannot win. And frankly, these days being a millionaire is not as fancy as it sounds - you can barely get a nice 7-series + a bit above average flat and living off investments/rent would require a very frugal lifestyle.
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