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Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

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Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#81

I hope the price tanks so that BTC will be primarily used for its intended purpose, like it was in the Silk Road days.

Not a chance. On the anonymous use. Pirate dread would be shaking his head in admonishment at your misguided utterances if he were on HN.

Monero solves this problem currently.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#82
I have been watching some BTC related companies recently and one caught my attention - Canaan. A few days ago they announced purchase orders of 100,000 mining machines for 2021. Supposedly many were pre-paid.

Also of note was their claim that in late 2020 they shifted their client base from individual miners to mostly publicly traded companies.

I am not sure what to make of it. Maybe HN can chip in?

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#83
As I watch the total crypto market cap shoot through the roof over the past year, one thing I've been wondering is what will stop a global "bank run" on the exchanges when/if something like this does happen?

I was reading thru Coinbase's own insurance wording, and it's clear they dance around it by saying:

To the extent these funds are held as USD in U.S. banks, they are maintained as pooled custodial accounts at one or more banks insured by the FDIC. These pooled custodial accounts have pass-through FDIC insurance up to the per-depositor coverage limit then in place [1]

Which basically means, only Coinbase's holding accounts are covered for $250k, not our personal accounts. I can't imagine the US Gov stepping in to rescue US crypto account holders when/if it does tank, but it might be necessary if it balloons enough.

[1] https://help.coinbase.com/en/coinbase/other-topics/legal-pol...

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#84
post #5

Bitcoin is powered by a shared belief in its value. While it has been powered by scams as well, couch couch Tether, tt seems to be getting more adherents to believing that it is intrinsically valuable. The fact that it tends to go up so quickly also yields to FOMO. Because Bitcoin is just shared belief, it is hard to dispel that belief via real-world events such as earnings releases and other things that affect more…

>Bitcoin is powered by a shared belief in its value.

So is US dollar.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#85

We're living in an era when it is easy to create new "currencies". Bitcoin is only the first, as some others have already been developed. The "value" of such currencies is a social construct. So, the price of BC will continue to grow as long as people have expectation that it will be valuable in the future. The only problem I see in "investing" in BC is the counterpart risk, i.e., I don't trust any of the companies t…

That is why Uniswap and other AMM DEX's are on the rise https://medium.com/dragonfly-research/what-explains-the-rise...

Uniswap is not very valuable with the current high fees.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#86
This analysis is flawed. People are paying a premium in the futures market to have exposure to BTC without having to acquire and hold physical bitcoins. There is a similar trend in other regulated exchange products like GBTC https://ycharts.com/companies/GBTC/discount_or_premium_to_na...

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#87
> contango for financial products isn’t normal, is that you can arbitrage it very easily, as you don’t have storage costs

This is a bit hand wavy. Holding Bitcoin has real administrative and compliance costs for financial players in a position to sell Bitcoin futures. Particularly since, to do this properly, you’d need to be trading on the referenced cryptocurrency exchanges.

Also, I don’t think that default probability equation works for this case. (It’s also highly sensitive to the recovery assumption.)

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#88
post #5

Bitcoin is powered by a shared belief in its value. While it has been powered by scams as well, couch couch Tether, tt seems to be getting more adherents to believing that it is intrinsically valuable. The fact that it tends to go up so quickly also yields to FOMO. Because Bitcoin is just shared belief, it is hard to dispel that belief via real-world events such as earnings releases and other things that affect more…

[deleted]

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#89
post #27

I hope the price tanks so that BTC will be primarily used for its intended purpose, like it was in the Silk Road days.

Maybe we can focus on crypto that doesn't have such high electricity demands for that purpose.

Maybe we can focus on crypto that requires democratically elected consensus - save regulatory capture - which would then allow us to focus on crypto that doesn't unnecessarily transfer wealth from later adopters weighted toward earlier adopters.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#90

I hope the price tanks so that BTC will be primarily used for its intended purpose, like it was in the Silk Road days.

It's primary purpose is a store of value that can't be manipulated by the government. It's succeeding wildly at this. There's a lot of extreme Bitcoin hate on this site, but BTC is helping a ton of people right now, as evidenced by the rapidly increasing demand and money flowing into Bitcoin investment.

> a lot of extreme Bitcoin hate on this site

I don't think this is the case, it feels more like people here are no longer as easily charmed by the whole buzzword catalogue surrounding bitcoin. This switch from everyone starting a new cryptocurrency and "X, but on blockchain" dominating the discourse towards a more critical view probably just feels more extreme than it really is.

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