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Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

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71–80 of 188 posts

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#71

Just in, gold also worthless https://www.brilliantearth.com/gold-mining-environment/

Nonsense. Gold has many uses other then used as currency or for speculation.

If you account for the damage to the environment mining gold causes its value is actually negative

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#72
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can't this be said about literally anything? Not at all. Lots of businesses make money by turning materials and/or labor into products. Other businesses make money solving problems for people or other businesses. However, crypto (and most of the rest of the financial sector) burn shit tons of energy, materials, time, and human effort generating wealth; wealth expressed in either bitcoin that doesn't really exist, o…

Crypto mining produces a service, which is maintaining a ledger of payments that works in a certain way. This specific problem — settling transactions — is an industry amounting to billions. Think of BTC like a MasterCard or Visa competitor, albeit a unique one.

(Not saying I agree with the article) But that doesn't change how you do the calculus. Every good or service has some positive value to people roughly measured by price people are willing to pay for it and negative value measured roughly by the total value of the resources needed to produce. In most businesses or as an individual this is all you care about. But in addition goods and services can also have positive and negative externalities. Universal trash collection has the positive externality of reducing disease. And basically every consumer good has a negative externality of producing (some) trash.

As a whole people we should include these externalities in the value prop of services despite the fact that businesses and individuals don't because it's a cost we collectively pay.

Trash is my biggest pet-peeve example of this. As an individual I have very little power to control the amount of trash I produce because goods I buy come with so much stupid packaging that I can't give back or recycle and there is no incentive for the people in the position to affect change to do anything about it because they don't bear the cost.

In a similar fashion carbon taxes help to capture the negative externalities of energy use. And if the article is true then collecting that tax would make it so that bitcoin mining is (right now) unprofitable. This is to be expected since such a collection would be sudden increase in the cost of mining when the market has pushed margins thin. The market would adjust, transaction fees would go up, and miners would find non-carbon producing energy sources and we'd probably reach a new equilibrium that is profitable for everyone involved again.

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#73

"The value of Bitcoin is negative if we applied a carbon tax to it" (paraphrased). Can't this be said about literally anything? Bitcoin and cryptos in general are actually worth more than $0 because people are tired of seeing their cash devalued on the whim of politicians and bankers.

> Bitcoin and cryptos in general are actually worth more than $0 because people are tired of seeing their cash devalued on the whim of politicians and bankers.

Inflation serves a purpose. The cash is devalued not on a whim, but to prevent collapse. Bitcoin indeed prevents that. Fortunately it's just a fringe market. Lets hope it stays that way.

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#74
post #56

I'm very conflicted about this. On one hand, I have a little bit of Bitcoin and am happy about some of the gains I've gotten (not life changing in any sense, but more than I expected). On the other hand I hesitated for a long time to buy any because I knew of the large environmental impact that its energy use has (yes, I really did avoid buying Bitcoin for a long time because I roughly knew of the environmental/energ…

I'm of the mind that the government shouldn't be regulating how resources are used. It makes sense to me to regulate the manufacturing of resources - for example regulating pollution levels, dumping, etc. - but once you have a resource the market should decide how that resource should be put to use.

If we've decided that we're happy producing X much electricity as a society using nuclear, wind, solar, coal, etc, we shouldn't get caught up on who ends up using that electricity or what they are willing to pay for it.

If we think that the energy we are producing is harmful, we should regulate things at the production level. Ban power production that doesn't meet certain standards, put a cap on the total amount of coal burning per year, etc. And then let the market decide the best use for the energy that remains.

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#75

Funny trend: solar and wind power are now cheaper than coal. https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2020/11/Price-of-electric... Here's a hot take: Bitcoin subsidizes clean energy development. Miners buy cheap energy; clean energy infrastructure gets profitable return. Cost of development and manufacturing lowers further because of scale; pollution and externalities reduced; humanity wins. Bitcoin saves humanity?

>Miners buy cheap energy; clean energy infrastructure gets profitable return. This true in China where most mining happens?

Yes. China gets more of its energy from renewables than the US does. It is their fastest growing energy sector, and is a stated concern for economic and military security purposes.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_China

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#76
post #5

How does someone measure the potential value of "being a pain in the ass to those who seek to control the supply of money"

Taking neither side, but just thinking of my parents - neither of who are anything 'tech' or anything 'finance'. Completely normal in most regards.

For them, someone actively controlling the supply of money is probably a good thing. Anything they have is pretty safe in a bank and somewhat covered by the government. Their taxes pay for police, sewage, the bins to be taken away, their roads to be repaired.

I love the idea that people are seeking to do incredible things in the crypto space, but all too often it seems to be lumped in with people's desire to transfer money across borders (again, useless for the everyperson) or avoid taxes - which if we all did would probably be a big negative. Assuming the government didn't step in pretty quickly, because what government wants to lose control?

As soon as you start talking about cryptocurrency with oversight to protect my mum and dad, where people aren't just trying to get rich quickly and make sure taxes are paid - people seem to dial out pretty quickly.

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#78
post #55

So much anti-Bitcoin sentiment on HN lately, recycling decade old strawman arguments. Does the Occam's razor apply here? Are people just salty they didn't buy a few back when they first heard about it, now trying to justify themselves?

I've seen this comment before, and honestly I think it's cheap. This article is about a clear, real problem with the current implementation of Bitcoin, namely that it requires enormous amounts of energy. I am not "anti-Bitcoin", I am anti a payment and financial storage protocol that requires gargantuan amounts of energy.

So if you have a problem or comment on the article in question, please make it, we're all ears. But responding to valid criticisms of Bitcoin with hand-wavy "oh HN is so anti-Bitcoin" is not discussion, it's tribalism.

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#79
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>while that is true, you could also argue they deserve it because of the risk they took. they didn't take any risk though, they just "mined bitcoins", which were more abundant then.

Well if the price increased at 1$, and you didn't sell any, you risked it going back to 0$. From that perspective, there's a risk holding on to it.

Investments are made to fund value creation.

What value did they create?

If the underpinnings of an economy accrue value purely to speculators while devaluing (in BTC-relative terms) actual assets and value creation, it has a major incentive problem.

What’s the one and only thing Bitcoiners want you to do with Bitcoin? Buy. That’s it. Any other use, including spending, is actively discouraged.

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#80
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can't this be said about literally anything? Not at all. Lots of businesses make money by turning materials and/or labor into products. Other businesses make money solving problems for people or other businesses. However, crypto (and most of the rest of the financial sector) burn shit tons of energy, materials, time, and human effort generating wealth; wealth expressed in either bitcoin that doesn't really exist, o…

Crypto mining produces a service, which is maintaining a ledger of payments that works in a certain way. This specific problem — settling transactions — is an industry amounting to billions. Think of BTC like a MasterCard or Visa competitor, albeit a unique one.

Bitcoin currently consumes roughly the energy used to power one quarter of CANADA.

I'm optimistic that there is a better way to store a ledger as you describe. Perhaps a database?

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