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Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

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Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#41

Post by ipnon »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #15
rybosworld wrote: post #10

"The value of Bitcoin is negative if we applied a carbon tax to it" (paraphrased). Can't this be said about literally anything? Bitcoin and cryptos in general are actually worth more than $0 because people are tired of seeing their cash devalued on the whim of politicians and bankers.

> Can't this be said about literally anything? No. Carbon taxes would not make everything worthless.

Carbon taxes also wouldn't make Bitcoin worthless. You can easily imagine Bitcoin mines powered by solar. Many already are, in order to capitalize on the cheap energy. The article posted in the OP is specious.

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#42

Post by elhudy »

rawtxapp wrote: post #29
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s amazing that the popular narrative is that the average person will somehow benefit if we switch to a currency that is majority owned by a small handful of early adopters. I’m not a fan of the current inflationary economic policy, but in no way would a Bitcoin economy be a win for the average person. Early adopters and Bitcoin whales would love it because they hold the vast majority of Bitcoin. They want nothing…

A lot of the early adopters have either permanently lost their coins or sold it local maximums, very few people would have hold on to it that long. And you can argue that if they had that kind of strong belief, they should receive some rewards for it. It's like saying by the time a company IPOs, early VCs have benefited the most, while that is true, you could also argue they deserve it because of the risk they took.

>while that is true, you could also argue they deserve it because of the risk they took.

they didn't take any risk though, they just "mined bitcoins", which were more abundant then.

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#43

Post by mamon »

Nouriel Roubini has a well known hate for Bitcoin, which probably originates from the fact that it escapes his alleged "expertise": he hasn't foreseen its popularity, and rise in value. Now he hates it, because this past mistake threatens his status as financial guru, "Dr Doom".

EDIT: I wouldn't take anything he says about it seriously, he's basically clueless on the topic.

EDIT2: In free markets value of something, e.g. Bitcoin is not decided by some panel of experts, like professor Roubini, but by people buying and selling it. If people want to pay $45k for a Bitcoin then that's it's true value. Roubini's claims that "fundamental value of Bitcoin is zero" is riddiculous. Bitcoins are collectibles, same as, say, baseball cards, and baseball cards can go for some insane prices despite having zero practial usefullness.

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#44

Post by arnavs »

FlownScepter wrote: post #37
rybosworld wrote: post #10

"The value of Bitcoin is negative if we applied a carbon tax to it" (paraphrased). Can't this be said about literally anything? Bitcoin and cryptos in general are actually worth more than $0 because people are tired of seeing their cash devalued on the whim of politicians and bankers.

> Can't this be said about literally anything? Not at all. Lots of businesses make money by turning materials and/or labor into products. Other businesses make money solving problems for people or other businesses. However, crypto (and most of the rest of the financial sector) burn shit tons of energy, materials, time, and human effort generating wealth; wealth expressed in either bitcoin that doesn't really exist, o…

Crypto mining produces a service, which is maintaining a ledger of payments that works in a certain way.

This specific problem — settling transactions — is an industry amounting to billions. Think of BTC like a MasterCard or Visa competitor, albeit a unique one.

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#46

Post by coralreef »

Funny trend: solar and wind power are now cheaper than coal.

https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2020/11/Price-of-electric...

Here's a hot take: Bitcoin subsidizes clean energy development. Miners buy cheap energy; clean energy infrastructure gets profitable return. Cost of development and manufacturing lowers further because of scale; pollution and externalities reduced; humanity wins. Bitcoin saves humanity?

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#48

Post by nicoburns »

rybosworld wrote: post #21
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can't this be said about literally anything? No. Carbon taxes would not make everything worthless.

Deduce just a bit more, and see that I meant you can tax literally anything until it is worthless. I think you already knew what I meant but just wanted to nitpick.

The cost of releasing carbon into the atmosphere is there whether or not you price it into the market by use of a tax. Value is not limited to monetary value.

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#49

Post by rawtxapp »

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #39
rawtxapp wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of the early adopters have either permanently lost their coins or sold it local maximums, very few people would have hold on to it that long. And you can argue that if they had that kind of strong belief, they should receive some rewards for it. It's like saying by the time a company IPOs, early VCs have benefited the most, while that is true, you could also argue they deserve it because of the risk they took.

> A lot of the early adopters have either permanently lost their coins or sold it If the balance of a Bitcoin economy relies on the assumption that certain people have lost their money, something is seriously wrong. Regardless, a hypothetical Bitcoin economy would require much further buy-in from here, making current holders the early adopters. > It's like saying by the time a company IPOs, early VCs have benefited t…

It was considered worthless at the time so many weren't careful with it. People are going to be a lot more careful when their coins are priced at 44k+.

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#50

Post by r00fus »

Geee wrote: post #45

Most of bitcoin is mined with clean energy. Also, deflationary money is the best thing that can happen to environment. It's time to stop destroying savings in order to accelerate pointless consumption (and production).

> Most of bitcoin is mined with clean energy

Do you have a cite for this?

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