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Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

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11–20 of 188 posts

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#11
post #4

Bitcoin is a way of converting externalities into cash with no byproduct.

Cool. I've got all this toxic industrial waste. I was going to just dump it into a lake. Bitcoin will turn that into pure cold cash, with no byproduct? Awesome.

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#13
post #5

How does someone measure the potential value of "being a pain in the ass to those who seek to control the supply of money"

Being a general pain in the ass is of negative utility.

Define "controlled supply of money" with reference to counter-examples of uncontrolled money supply? Money supply needs limits, surely?

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#14
It does not seems very different than other trades made illegal/wrong because they make people rich at huge community costs: like destroying the nature and the planet. I am thinking about Ivory trade, or rare animals, or furs etc etc... But people are too busy to get rich to thing about the consequences.

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#15

"The value of Bitcoin is negative if we applied a carbon tax to it" (paraphrased). Can't this be said about literally anything? Bitcoin and cryptos in general are actually worth more than $0 because people are tired of seeing their cash devalued on the whim of politicians and bankers.

> Can't this be said about literally anything?

No. Carbon taxes would not make everything worthless.

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#17
post #5

How does someone measure the potential value of "being a pain in the ass to those who seek to control the supply of money"

I have come to believe that this part of the value is absolutely enormous. It takes control of the money supply out of government's hands - which on balance, I believe is probably a bad thing in a democratic country.

On the other hand, it's incredibly powerful / valuable if it's allowed to exist, and I think the cat is already out of that bag.

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#18

"The value of Bitcoin is negative if we applied a carbon tax to it" (paraphrased). Can't this be said about literally anything? Bitcoin and cryptos in general are actually worth more than $0 because people are tired of seeing their cash devalued on the whim of politicians and bankers.

But is it better to see your crypto devalued by some big dump? Would probably be easy for a nation state to do this if it wanted to..

All this independence from states seems totally overrated to me. They can tax your crypto. They can participate in the crypto market.. many possibilities.

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#19
post #5

How does someone measure the potential value of "being a pain in the ass to those who seek to control the supply of money"

It’s amazing that the popular narrative is that the average person will somehow benefit if we switch to a currency that is majority owned by a small handful of early adopters.

I’m not a fan of the current inflationary economic policy, but in no way would a Bitcoin economy be a win for the average person. Early adopters and Bitcoin whales would love it because they hold the vast majority of Bitcoin. They want nothing more than to see everyone else forced to buy it from them at ever increasing prices if they want to join the Bitcoin economy.

The average person loses in this scenario, though.

Re: Nouriel Roubini: Bitcoin is not a hedge against tail risk

#20
The environmental impact of Bitcoin, given it's current electricity usage is magnitudes less than what countries do with that same amount of electricity.

Bitcoin is a non-issue.

edit: http://www.withouthotair.com/ I'm basing this argument on calculations from this book.

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