Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars • Hacker News Board

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#161

Post by Hypx » Mon, Feb 08, 2021, 12:53 AM UTC

nickik wrote: post #128

rad_gruchalski wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> in 10 years if you don't have a viable EV platform, you are closing your doors I for once hope that the bragging from EU about the H2 infrastructure is not usual hot air. It is really good to see major manufacturers coming up with H2 power plant ideas. In 10 years, I’m looking to drive a fuel cell powered car. It’s not going to be a popular opinion here but IMO, battery powered cars are a dead end. The range will a…

I think you are completely wrong, let me make the argument. As a whole, H2 cars are also quite heavy. You literally require everything that is in an EV plus multiple extra subsystems that are incredibly complex and not light by any means. The manufacturing and materials are very both complex and expensive. You need the fuel cell itself, and that is not just some thin layer, but a whole complex subsystem that requires…

That's just a big pile of misinformation. A fuel cell is pretty simple device. It's literally a type of battery not much different than a li-ion battery. The "complexity " you speak of is just a series of pumps and filters. Those cost nearly nothing and weigh very little.

A fuel cell cad is likely to eventually cost the same as a Toyota Corolla while also allowing for gasoline-like refueling time and range.

Finally, there's no reason for a fuel cell to be similar as efficient as a battery powered car. As I said, it's technically a type of battery. If your going to talk about batteries of the future, you also have to talk about fuel cells of the future.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#162

Post by Hypx » Mon, Feb 08, 2021, 1:19 AM UTC

whimsicalism wrote: post #150

Hypx wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm guessing that's Cruise Automation. They talked about driverless cars in specific neighborhoods, but I haven't anything formally happening on that front. So they're either still using drivers or it's geofenced.

I see both Cruise and Waymo routinely and maybe one other I am forgetting the name of right now.

Again, either with drivers or geofenced.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#163

Post by ogre_codes » Mon, Feb 08, 2021, 4:23 AM UTC

Hypx wrote: post #160

ogre_codes wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric cars are going to slaughter hydrogen for one simple reason. Once people get used to the convenience of their car getting filled up every night when they are at home, they will never go back. There may be a parallel H2 network for industrial vehicles of some kinds. But the vast majority of personal use is going to be electric.

You can probably refuel a hydrogen car at home eventually too. The problem with electric cars is that there's not a single thing that fuel cell cars can't replicate.

> You can probably refuel a hydrogen car at home eventually too. The problem with electric cars is that there's not a single thing that fuel cell cars can't replicate.

First. No, we're not going to have home electrolysis. It would be expensive and inefficient.

And that inefficiency is what will make hydro cars also ran. While EVs are heavier, they are less expensive to operate because there is energy loss in every phase of getting power to the wheels. Extracting hydrogen, compressing it, delivering it to the end point, and extracting power from it, each phase is an efficiency loss.

I already have what I need to charge an EV. It will take all night, but I rarely drive more than 300 miles in a day so that's just fine with me. And it's cheaper than hydro will ever be. Particularly if I put up my own solar to charge it.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#164

Post by ogre_codes » Mon, Feb 08, 2021, 4:35 AM UTC

Hypx wrote: post #158

ogre_codes wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A fair enough statement. A bit of an electric divide. I'll put it a bit differently though. Setting aside environmental concerns, why would you buy a hydrogen car as opposed to a regular old gasoline car? Charging from home is a substantial benefit of EVs, performance is another. The Mirai is neither a particularly performant car, nor can you charge from home. Why would you switch to a car with a non-existent fuel ne…

Eventually, you want the ownership experience of the gasoline car without the emissions. So much of the argument against them are short-term only. You have to assume there will be fuel cell cars that are fast and desirable as the technology improves.

> Eventually, you want the ownership experience of the gasoline car without the emissions

No I don't. I abhor getting into the car and realizing I need to stop at the gas station before I can drive to the trail head and ride with my friends. The idea of having a car that is ready to perform at maximum every time I step out the front door has a tremendous appeal. I hate gas stations, they stink, they are a waste of my time, often when I don't have time to spare.

Maybe you want to replicate that experience. I'll pass.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#165

Post by vel0city » Mon, Feb 08, 2021, 4:52 AM UTC

lazycrazyowl wrote: post #113

seibelj wrote: post #4

EVs make sense but at this point self driving cars are fantasy vaporware. Executives should be tired of embarrassing themselves in public with grand pronouncements of “just 6 more months!” by this point.

Yandex had demonstrated their self-driving car technology in Las Vegas with just a safety engineer in the front passenger seat (NVO Mode) providing demonstration rides of its self-driving car on the public streets of Las Vegas starting from the Hard Rock Hotel & Casino during CES 2019. CES 2019 - https://youtu.be/uRyTEW2OuWw MKBHD review riding the Yandex car in CES 2019 - https://youtu.be/gfWjsKsEry0 Ann Arbor, MI i…

Google showed a self-driving car taking a blind guy through a Taco Bell drive-through. Clearly ready for prime time, probably just a year off.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdgQpa1pUUE&feature=emb_titl...

That video was released on March 28, 2012. Nine years ago in 48 days.

You'd think if it was just a little regulatory red tape a multi-billion dollar corporation or two (or three) would have figured it out in nine years. Maybe its more than just a few rules changes that's keeping truly full self driving carson some very select routes.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#166

Post by vel0city » Mon, Feb 08, 2021, 4:55 AM UTC

whimsicalism wrote: post #139

Hypx wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you mean a car without a driver and outside of a geofenced area, you definitely have not seen one before.

I don't know if I'm in a "geofenced area." I live in San Francisco, I routinely see self driving cars.

Can I hop in one of those geo-fenced cars and have it drive me to Las Vegas? How about staying in state lines, can it drive me to Sacramento? Monterrey? Santa Cruz?

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#167

Post by Hypx » Mon, Feb 08, 2021, 6:04 AM UTC

ogre_codes wrote: post #163

Hypx wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can probably refuel a hydrogen car at home eventually too. The problem with electric cars is that there's not a single thing that fuel cell cars can't replicate.

> You can probably refuel a hydrogen car at home eventually too. The problem with electric cars is that there's not a single thing that fuel cell cars can't replicate. First. No, we're not going to have home electrolysis. It would be expensive and inefficient. And that inefficiency is what will make hydro cars also ran. While EVs are heavier, they are less expensive to operate because there is energy loss in every ph…

Why not? A company called Lavo is selling such a thing right now.

You should realize that weight steals from your efficiency. A fuel cell can be less efficiency, but still gets you a similar distance on the same amount of energy.

If you can accept that a fuel cell car can match a battery powered one on efficiency, then it’s conceivable that it can be as cheap to drive too.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#168

Post by Hypx » Mon, Feb 08, 2021, 6:06 AM UTC

ogre_codes wrote: post #164

Hypx wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eventually, you want the ownership experience of the gasoline car without the emissions. So much of the argument against them are short-term only. You have to assume there will be fuel cell cars that are fast and desirable as the technology improves.

> Eventually, you want the ownership experience of the gasoline car without the emissions No I don't. I abhor getting into the car and realizing I need to stop at the gas station before I can drive to the trail head and ride with my friends. The idea of having a car that is ready to perform at maximum every time I step out the front door has a tremendous appeal. I hate gas stations, they stink, they are a waste of my…

Unless you need to drive beyond the limits of your battery, at which point a gasoline powered vehicle makes more sense. I get the feeling your belief system is a post hoc rationalization since you’re just ignoring a major use case.

If it really bothers you, then you probably be able to refuel your fuel cell car at home at some point in the future. So you can avoid the refueling station altogether with fuel cell cars too.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#169

Post by scsilver » Mon, Feb 08, 2021, 6:32 AM UTC

Hypx wrote: post #167

ogre_codes wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can probably refuel a hydrogen car at home eventually too. The problem with electric cars is that there's not a single thing that fuel cell cars can't replicate. First. No, we're not going to have home electrolysis. It would be expensive and inefficient. And that inefficiency is what will make hydro cars also ran. While EVs are heavier, they are less expensive to operate because there is energy loss in every ph…

Why not? A company called Lavo is selling such a thing right now. You should realize that weight steals from your efficiency. A fuel cell can be less efficiency, but still gets you a similar distance on the same amount of energy. If you can accept that a fuel cell car can match a battery powered one on efficiency, then it’s conceivable that it can be as cheap to drive too.

Sounds like fuel cells would be best for planes or drones.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#170

Post by nickik » Mon, Feb 08, 2021, 10:22 AM UTC

Hypx wrote: post #161

nickik wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are completely wrong, let me make the argument. As a whole, H2 cars are also quite heavy. You literally require everything that is in an EV plus multiple extra subsystems that are incredibly complex and not light by any means. The manufacturing and materials are very both complex and expensive. You need the fuel cell itself, and that is not just some thin layer, but a whole complex subsystem that requires…

That's just a big pile of misinformation. A fuel cell is pretty simple device. It's literally a type of battery not much different than a li-ion battery. The "complexity " you speak of is just a series of pumps and filters. Those cost nearly nothing and weigh very little. A fuel cell cad is likely to eventually cost the same as a Toyota Corolla while also allowing for gasoline-like refueling time and range. Finally,…

Its a a series of pumps, filter and tubes, and that is if we don't consider the tank. All of that is IN ADDITION to everything a normal EV also has.

Look at this simple design, I'm sure they can't wait until they can finally mass produce it, so easy: https://global.toyota/pages/news/images/2020/12/09/1200/005....

And every car maker disagrees with you that it doesn't cost much.

Maybe in some future it can be built as cheap as you say, but not now. So you would really have to compare it to some future EV as well.

Fuel cell have been studied for 60 years, and their efficiency is still not good. Li-Ion has made far more progress in far less time and is still improving significantly year over year. Nobody has announced anything close to that in terms of improvement for fuel cells.

And even if there were such announcements, there is still a long way to go for fuel cells to catch up to current battery tech.