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Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

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Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#71

Post by jdxcode »

Ralo wrote: post #58
e_y_ wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EV batteries don't instantly die. After ten years, it'll probably be down 10-20% of its original capacity, which is still drivable but might not work for everyone's commute. In that case, the battery can be potentially refurbished or repurposed for energy storage. Cars, not just electric ones, have gotten more complex and have software that may need special equipment to diagnose. EVs are simpler and more robust in a…

I've swapped engines before and it's usually a weekend job costing around $1000-1500 and you essential bring your mileage back down to 0 (assuming you rebuilt the engine before installing). I could see dropping the battery pack and getting it repaired be a comparable option in the future.

The battery has to weigh a TON: I can’t imagine this being a shadetree job ever.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#72

Post by Ralo »

EvanAnderson wrote: post #55
HenryKissinger wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I managed to save thousands of dollars in high school/university just driving a beater and fixing it as stuff broke, but an electric vehicle isn't something that can be casually repaired right? Even if in 20-30 years when parts are cheap and plentiful, you need to be a skilled engineer (or at least highly trained) to do these repairs right? People will train themselves. In the world of science fiction, ordinary peo…

You underestimate the power of manufacturers to use DRM to prevent "unauthorized" repairs.

cries in john deere

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#73

Post by jfim »

pmorici wrote: post #47
alphabettsy wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure how you figure. The one that will actually be available at launch and I’m guessing most people will buy, with AWD, is $50k.

Can you cite any car company that makes the cheapest version of a product available before the more expensive one? It makes good business sense to start with the more profitable model I’m not sure why you bring this up as if it is bad.

The Mustang Mach-E GT and Mach-E GT Performance Edition aren't available until summer 2021 but the lower trim levels are available right now.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#74

Post by totalZero »

EvanAnderson wrote: post #55
HenryKissinger wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I managed to save thousands of dollars in high school/university just driving a beater and fixing it as stuff broke, but an electric vehicle isn't something that can be casually repaired right? Even if in 20-30 years when parts are cheap and plentiful, you need to be a skilled engineer (or at least highly trained) to do these repairs right? People will train themselves. In the world of science fiction, ordinary peo…

You underestimate the power of manufacturers to use DRM to prevent "unauthorized" repairs.

A remedy to that is available.

Right to repair has gained some traction in the automotive space in the past decade and Massachusetts has extended its law to include vehicle data standards. This is important because manufacturers generally don't like to make several variants of the same basic systems, so an individual state can have a nationwide impact.

https://www.theverge.com/2020/11/4/21549129/massachusetts-ri...

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#75

Post by ogre_codes »

chii wrote: post #67
ogre_codes wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GM and Ford have billions of man hours assembling cars... and a super-tight battery supply chain they share with every other car maker scrambling to secure battery supplies right now. They can assemble the fuck out of those car parts, but in the end they are cranking out expensive cars with crappy range because they have no reliable battery source. Tesla has spent the past 15 years getting their battery supply chain…

It depends on whether the battery sourcing and assembly is a harder problem than car assembly. The reason, may be, why Tesla had a lot of issues is that they are blazing a new trail. Now that it's been shown that batteries are viable to make at scale, the capital will be available, and it's just sourcing mines and raw materials. I fail to believe Tesla can monopolize the world entire supply.

Capital is there. But that capacity isn't going to come online over-night. "Just sourcing mines"... the capacity for raw materials doesn't exist. New mines have to be dug. That means acquiring property with materials, permitting, sourcing equipment to dig the mines, digging the material, building refining equipment, building factories to package the batteries. All of this takes time to bring online.

I'm not saying capacity will never exist, but for the next 5-10 years, auto manufacturers are going to be fighting for as much lithium and battery raw materials as they can get their hands on. Tesla has a handle on this, Ford doesn't.

How many years is it going to take for that capacity to come online while Ford/ GM/ etc bleed market share?

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#76

Post by totalZero »

dragosmocrii wrote: post #65

What are your favorite battery related stocks? Lithium mining companies? I've been reading on solid state batteries to find some new trends, but it seems they are using same composition as lithium ion technology.

ALB and SQM are two of the big boys. Can't say either is my favorite but I am long an upside butterfly on ALB. Not a fan of SQM because of nepotism and bribery at the top. Seems like a really underdeveloped sector. I don't think people realize how earth-shatteringly huge lithium is about to be.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#77

Post by pokerhobo »

friedman23 wrote: post #25
pmorici wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The chances that Tesla will buy out a legacy auto company are zero. It makes no sense. They are all saddled with crushing debt loads, dealer networks, and stranded assets. None of them have anything Tesla needs to become the largest car manufacturer in history by 2030.

This kind of uninformed negativity is why I'm loaded up on GM calls. GM btw, has no debt (at least in the way you are thinking).

GM has about $100B in debt https://www.benzinga.com/news/20/09/17407586/a-look-into-gen.... Help me understand how I’m misinterpreting this.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#78

Post by starpilot »

Ralo wrote: post #32

I've been a car guy since my teens, and have nearly everyone around me be some sort of mechanic but I've wondered a couple things about why electric vehicles will have mass appeal. Most electric vehicles seem to have their value based in the battery pack, but these batteries packs have a life span of 10~ years, right? Do these vehicles have zero value after ten years (assuming the batteries are bad then), high mileag…

Replacing a Prius battery costs around $2k and usually happens around 200k miles. If you replace the individual cells that have gone bad, it can cost far less.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#79

Post by Teever »

natch wrote: post #64
justapassenger wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla’s are famous for not being repairable by 3rd party shops. You lack documentation, software, getting parts is PITA, and Tesla will happily disable features in your car, if you repaired it in a way they don’t agree with (like disabling supercharging on salvaged cars).

Tesla is just going through the growing pains of ramping production so their repair story is still a work in progress at the moment. They make it work as needed, but it’s not always ideal nor as widely available everywhere as people hope yet. It will get better. Disabling supercharging for DIY battery fix/hack jobs I assume is done to protect the network so that other cars are not impacted by a potentially incorrect…

> I believe it’s usually a heathy practice in life to look for the straightforward explanations that don’t assume bad motives in the part of the actor you are looking at.

Do you believe that or were you just attempting to sound virtuous while making a snarky comment?

There are legitimate reasons to be concerned about the motives of Tesla and the actions that they take. The actions of a megacorp don't even have to be outright malicious to be threatening to an individual -- it's not that they hate you, it's just that they don't care about you.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#80

Post by polishdude20 »

woeirua wrote: post #54
Ralo wrote: post #32

I've been a car guy since my teens, and have nearly everyone around me be some sort of mechanic but I've wondered a couple things about why electric vehicles will have mass appeal. Most electric vehicles seem to have their value based in the battery pack, but these batteries packs have a life span of 10~ years, right? Do these vehicles have zero value after ten years (assuming the batteries are bad then), high mileag…

It’s unclear what happens to the batteries after such a long period. The first modern EVs are still only 5-6 years old. That said the battery degradation on EVs with active thermal management looks pretty good. It’s plausible that batteries in the future will last the entire lifespan of the vehicle: at least 200k miles. The most common repairs on an EV can be done at your regular mechanic. The only thing that will pr…

I feel like with the reliability and durability of EV's the used market will not have remarkably low prices compared to gas cars. Low income families will still go with gas as they will get cheaper as well.
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