Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars • Hacker News Board

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#61

Post by axaxs » Sun, Feb 07, 2021, 5:44 AM UTC

ogre_codes wrote: post #56

axaxs wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I simply don't agree. What the old companies have are billions of man hours of experience and engineering. Tesla has cool new tech, but keeps falling apart on things Ford or GM solved 40 years ago. I'm not saying one or the other is better, but it's not like buying some dead useless company.

GM and Ford have billions of man hours assembling cars... and a super-tight battery supply chain they share with every other car maker scrambling to secure battery supplies right now. They can assemble the fuck out of those car parts, but in the end they are cranking out expensive cars with crappy range because they have no reliable battery source. Tesla has spent the past 15 years getting their battery supply chain…

No of course not. I guess I meant they could use each others' experience.

And it's not about simply assembling things. Ford and GM have tons of engineering and experience on hand.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#62

Post by clouddrover » Sun, Feb 07, 2021, 5:44 AM UTC

cookiengineer wrote: post #17

prostoalex wrote: post #7

It seems like I’ve seen this movie before. A large automotive consortium puts out an optimistic press release announcing its full commitment to EVs https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1086902_volkswagen-will... Then it turns out that the primary cost contributor to an EV is the cost of batteries. Automakers being relative nobodies on the lithium market, they are paying retail for it and passing the mark-ups to you,…

This so much sounds like all the PR stunt cars that renault put out. You literally have to lease a battery on top of the absurd prices, and you cannot get it changed for free, even when you lease it. Which makes all their cars basically useless after a year of usage, because the batteries are embedded in their chassis. Every time I compare European manufacturers to Tesla and Nissan, they are such a bad joke. Nissan h…

> Every time I compare European manufacturers to Tesla and Nissan, they are such a bad joke

The Renault Zoe was the best selling BEV in Europe in 2020 and Volkswagen Group was the best selling BEV maker in Europe overall:

https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2021/01/europe-december-2020.h...

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#63

Post by totalZero » Sun, Feb 07, 2021, 5:46 AM UTC

tourdownunder wrote: post #57

Ralo wrote: post #32

I've been a car guy since my teens, and have nearly everyone around me be some sort of mechanic but I've wondered a couple things about why electric vehicles will have mass appeal. Most electric vehicles seem to have their value based in the battery pack, but these batteries packs have a life span of 10~ years, right? Do these vehicles have zero value after ten years (assuming the batteries are bad then), high mileag…

> but an electric vehicle isn't something that can be casually repaired right There is aftermarket batteries to put life back in a Nissan leaf. > can our grid handle that? Not in the few hours of peak though there are charges that understand the time of day costs and will only charge in certain times when the grid is cheaper. Some electric vehicles such as the Nissan leaf also have V2G which will help the grid in tim…

I think that the price of gas would go down. You'd still need refineries for jet fuel, heating oil, etc -- other parts of the distillate -- and existing wells don't really need that much attention to keep producing. But maybe there would be taxes imposed.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#64

Post by natch » Sun, Feb 07, 2021, 5:46 AM UTC

justapassenger wrote: post #31

nickik wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you even talking about. Nissan sales have collapsed, the Leaf went from one of the most sold cars to small program and is being discontinued in many places. Nissan has the Ariya coming out but not much beyond, their announced targets for electrification are embracingly bad compared to basically every other auto-maker. VWG and Renault are outselling Nissan by 2-3x in terms of BEV. And you don't have to lease…

Tesla’s are famous for not being repairable by 3rd party shops. You lack documentation, software, getting parts is PITA, and Tesla will happily disable features in your car, if you repaired it in a way they don’t agree with (like disabling supercharging on salvaged cars).

Tesla is just going through the growing pains of ramping production so their repair story is still a work in progress at the moment. They make it work as needed, but it’s not always ideal nor as widely available everywhere as people hope yet. It will get better.

Disabling supercharging for DIY battery fix/hack jobs I assume is done to protect the network so that other cars are not impacted by a potentially incorrect or incomplete repair job.

I believe it’s usually a heathy practice in life to look for the straightforward explanations that don’t assume bad motives in the part of the actor you are looking at. Disabling supercharging is not great in this respect but they have to weigh it against the downside of how it could possibly affect other drivers.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#65

Post by dragosmocrii » Sun, Feb 07, 2021, 5:48 AM UTC

What are your favorite battery related stocks? Lithium mining companies? I've been reading on solid state batteries to find some new trends, but it seems they are using same composition as lithium ion technology.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#66

Post by rlonn » Sun, Feb 07, 2021, 5:50 AM UTC

totalZero wrote: post #45

friedman23 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This kind of uninformed negativity is why I'm loaded up on GM calls. GM btw, has no debt (at least in the way you are thinking).

If there is a cash takeout, the IV will go down. If there is a share component to a hypothetical acquisition, the IV will potentially increase. However, I'm not sure how likely that is. Just be aware that your Vega p&l could be negative, so extremely long dated calls with a lot of Vega may need a big gap between a cash takeout price and spot in order to be profitable.

This reads like finance buzz bingo

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#67

Post by chii » Sun, Feb 07, 2021, 5:52 AM UTC

ogre_codes wrote: post #56

axaxs wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I simply don't agree. What the old companies have are billions of man hours of experience and engineering. Tesla has cool new tech, but keeps falling apart on things Ford or GM solved 40 years ago. I'm not saying one or the other is better, but it's not like buying some dead useless company.

GM and Ford have billions of man hours assembling cars... and a super-tight battery supply chain they share with every other car maker scrambling to secure battery supplies right now. They can assemble the fuck out of those car parts, but in the end they are cranking out expensive cars with crappy range because they have no reliable battery source. Tesla has spent the past 15 years getting their battery supply chain…

It depends on whether the battery sourcing and assembly is a harder problem than car assembly.

The reason, may be, why Tesla had a lot of issues is that they are blazing a new trail. Now that it's been shown that batteries are viable to make at scale, the capital will be available, and it's just sourcing mines and raw materials. I fail to believe Tesla can monopolize the world entire supply.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#68

Post by agleason » Sun, Feb 07, 2021, 5:53 AM UTC

ip26 wrote: post #11

agleason wrote: post #5

I really love the F-150 and it's size, but I don't need all the power it comes with and would love it to be a little more fuel efficient. I realize the coming hybrid model is going to be a fortune more than the non hybrid, but I am curious how expensive an all-electric model will be.

Why is sheer bigness something to love about it? They literally don’t fit in many people’s garages anymore, they are so big. Honestly, can you help me understand?

It makes it enjoyable to drive for whatever reason, there's something that makes me feel good and powerful when I drive it (note that my girlfriend tells me I drive like a grandma). It's a comfortable car to drive, and it's pretty dependable in the long term (so I've heard, never owned one long time personally). Also it's a super useful car for carrying things around, helping friends move, etc.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#69

Post by pmorici » Sun, Feb 07, 2021, 5:53 AM UTC

friedman23 wrote: post #25

pmorici wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The chances that Tesla will buy out a legacy auto company are zero. It makes no sense. They are all saddled with crushing debt loads, dealer networks, and stranded assets. None of them have anything Tesla needs to become the largest car manufacturer in history by 2030.

This kind of uninformed negativity is why I'm loaded up on GM calls. GM btw, has no debt (at least in the way you are thinking).

Yeah I’m sure Tesla is just chomping at the bit to take on a debt portfolio backed by ICE vehicle loans and leases. The assets underlying all that debt are going to have a drastic revaluation as electric takes over. I would bet on a GM bankruptcy within 5 years.

GM is blackberry it’s 2008.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#70

Post by Ralo » Sun, Feb 07, 2021, 5:54 AM UTC

tourdownunder wrote: post #57

Ralo wrote: post #32

I've been a car guy since my teens, and have nearly everyone around me be some sort of mechanic but I've wondered a couple things about why electric vehicles will have mass appeal. Most electric vehicles seem to have their value based in the battery pack, but these batteries packs have a life span of 10~ years, right? Do these vehicles have zero value after ten years (assuming the batteries are bad then), high mileag…

> but an electric vehicle isn't something that can be casually repaired right There is aftermarket batteries to put life back in a Nissan leaf. > can our grid handle that? Not in the few hours of peak though there are charges that understand the time of day costs and will only charge in certain times when the grid is cheaper. Some electric vehicles such as the Nissan leaf also have V2G which will help the grid in tim…

>It already is.

That's my point though, it currently is. There's no massive load, its not the majority. If the world switches, cities will be needing to do massive power overhauls and use more resources. This will be translated into electricity rates/taxes increasing. Will it be translated to the rate of gasoline? Who knows.

I feel like batteries are right there, and this tesla push for electric cars is giving battery research a new life and we might see batteries be a huge upgrade from gas but I don't think it's entirely there. If it is an upgrade, it's marginal.

All things considered, I keep my car budget around $1k and that's been working fantastic for me. That budget if ever possible, won't be viable for many many many years.