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Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

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Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#51
post #32

I've been a car guy since my teens, and have nearly everyone around me be some sort of mechanic but I've wondered a couple things about why electric vehicles will have mass appeal. Most electric vehicles seem to have their value based in the battery pack, but these batteries packs have a life span of 10~ years, right? Do these vehicles have zero value after ten years (assuming the batteries are bad then), high mileag…

That far into the future cars will most likely be autonomous. there isn't really any point to speculating that far out, who knows what could happen. Look at 2020....

Or 1894 when people predicted the death of urban cities due to horse manure:

https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great...

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#52

It seems like I’ve seen this movie before. A large automotive consortium puts out an optimistic press release announcing its full commitment to EVs https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1086902_volkswagen-will... Then it turns out that the primary cost contributor to an EV is the cost of batteries. Automakers being relative nobodies on the lithium market, they are paying retail for it and passing the mark-ups to you,…

> Automakers being relative nobodies on the lithium market, they are paying retail for it and passing the mark-ups to you, the consumer.

Automakers are already huge players in the metals markets and it seems unlikely that they would pay retail for any component, raw or finished.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#53
post #5

I really love the F-150 and it's size, but I don't need all the power it comes with and would love it to be a little more fuel efficient. I realize the coming hybrid model is going to be a fortune more than the non hybrid, but I am curious how expensive an all-electric model will be.

I honestly don't know why someone hasn't done a diesel-electric[1] truck yet with a moderate size battery.

You'd have more torque than is possible, could ditch the transmission/transfer case/etc and it would allow you to build out a platform to understand the motor/electrification side of things with reasonable energy density until the battery curve catches up with high duty cycle usage.

I mean locomotives moved to that powertrain decades ago(which is why the VFDs in current EVs are so fantastic) so it seems like a reasonable way to approach things.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel%E2%80%93electric_transm...

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#54
post #32

I've been a car guy since my teens, and have nearly everyone around me be some sort of mechanic but I've wondered a couple things about why electric vehicles will have mass appeal. Most electric vehicles seem to have their value based in the battery pack, but these batteries packs have a life span of 10~ years, right? Do these vehicles have zero value after ten years (assuming the batteries are bad then), high mileag…

It’s unclear what happens to the batteries after such a long period. The first modern EVs are still only 5-6 years old. That said the battery degradation on EVs with active thermal management looks pretty good. It’s plausible that batteries in the future will last the entire lifespan of the vehicle: at least 200k miles.

The most common repairs on an EV can be done at your regular mechanic. The only thing that will probably require going to the dealership will be main battery work. But here’s the thing, EVs have so many fewer moving parts that they’re far less likely to have severe mechanical breakdowns. All of the data to date shows that the expected cost of maintenance over the life of a typical car will be drastically less for EVs.

The grid will be adapted as people electrify. It won’t happen overnight. I’m not worried about the price of electricity. The cost of renewables has fallen by 90% in the last decade and will continue to decrease in the next decade. Fossil fuels for cars and light trucks will not be economic by the middle of this decade period. That’s without heavy subsidies or taxes.

Electric vehicles will help lower income people because their total cost of ownership is significantly less than ICE vehicles. While they’re more expensive today, by the time electrification goes mainstream there will be a wide range of used electric cars for people to buy at all price points. Also, in the near term no one is saying you have to get rid of all gas cars. Most families could get by with one gas car and one electric.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#55
post #32

I've been a car guy since my teens, and have nearly everyone around me be some sort of mechanic but I've wondered a couple things about why electric vehicles will have mass appeal. Most electric vehicles seem to have their value based in the battery pack, but these batteries packs have a life span of 10~ years, right? Do these vehicles have zero value after ten years (assuming the batteries are bad then), high mileag…

> I managed to save thousands of dollars in high school/university just driving a beater and fixing it as stuff broke, but an electric vehicle isn't something that can be casually repaired right? Even if in 20-30 years when parts are cheap and plentiful, you need to be a skilled engineer (or at least highly trained) to do these repairs right? People will train themselves. In the world of science fiction, ordinary peo…

You underestimate the power of manufacturers to use DRM to prevent "unauthorized" repairs.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#56
post #42

The patterns only going to become more pronounced from here on out. My guess is that we’re going to See a electric bulbs style phase out of gasoline engines announced over the next two years. If I’m Ford or GM I’m gonna try and get my hands on some of that sweet sweet tesla speculation cash in the form of a buy out as quickly as possible. Solves the technology platform problems too. If VW couldn’t handle it, why do y…

I simply don't agree. What the old companies have are billions of man hours of experience and engineering. Tesla has cool new tech, but keeps falling apart on things Ford or GM solved 40 years ago. I'm not saying one or the other is better, but it's not like buying some dead useless company.

GM and Ford have billions of man hours assembling cars... and a super-tight battery supply chain they share with every other car maker scrambling to secure battery supplies right now. They can assemble the fuck out of those car parts, but in the end they are cranking out expensive cars with crappy range because they have no reliable battery source.

Tesla has spent the past 15 years getting their battery supply chain squared away. You think GM and Ford are going to pull that out of their ass tomorrow?

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#57
post #32

I've been a car guy since my teens, and have nearly everyone around me be some sort of mechanic but I've wondered a couple things about why electric vehicles will have mass appeal. Most electric vehicles seem to have their value based in the battery pack, but these batteries packs have a life span of 10~ years, right? Do these vehicles have zero value after ten years (assuming the batteries are bad then), high mileag…

> but an electric vehicle isn't something that can be casually repaired right

There is aftermarket batteries to put life back in a Nissan leaf.

> can our grid handle that?

Not in the few hours of peak though there are charges that understand the time of day costs and will only charge in certain times when the grid is cheaper.

Some electric vehicles such as the Nissan leaf also have V2G which will help the grid in times of need.

> cannot see how it would be cheaper than gas

It already is.

> I just see this hurting low-income people.

You are right it will as people transition off gas it will no longer have economies of scale so the price of gas will rise.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#58
post #44
post #32

I've been a car guy since my teens, and have nearly everyone around me be some sort of mechanic but I've wondered a couple things about why electric vehicles will have mass appeal. Most electric vehicles seem to have their value based in the battery pack, but these batteries packs have a life span of 10~ years, right? Do these vehicles have zero value after ten years (assuming the batteries are bad then), high mileag…

EV batteries don't instantly die. After ten years, it'll probably be down 10-20% of its original capacity, which is still drivable but might not work for everyone's commute. In that case, the battery can be potentially refurbished or repurposed for energy storage. Cars, not just electric ones, have gotten more complex and have software that may need special equipment to diagnose. EVs are simpler and more robust in a…

I've swapped engines before and it's usually a weekend job costing around $1000-1500 and you essential bring your mileage back down to 0 (assuming you rebuilt the engine before installing).

I could see dropping the battery pack and getting it repaired be a comparable option in the future.

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#59
post #32

I've been a car guy since my teens, and have nearly everyone around me be some sort of mechanic but I've wondered a couple things about why electric vehicles will have mass appeal. Most electric vehicles seem to have their value based in the battery pack, but these batteries packs have a life span of 10~ years, right? Do these vehicles have zero value after ten years (assuming the batteries are bad then), high mileag…

Fixing a beater DIY style might work for the small number of people that have the tools and patience to learn all the quirks of it (maybe with the exception of things like changing oil and other small things that EVs won't have for the most part)

Yes, batteries will need to be recycled if we want a sustainable solution

Not sure how EVs will age and how things will work in the end. It wouldn't be surprised to have shorter range ones with refurb batteries

Re: Ford Makes $29B Commitment to Electric and Self-Driving Cars

#60
post #26

I wish auto manufacturers focused on extending EV range then FSD. the buzz so much but nobody is bothered about bringing extended range to masses. People who want entry level ev can't sit for 40 minutes every week at a supercharger.

I leased a 2020 Leaf last year due to the killer deals. I went with the S-Plus for the extra range. Now driving it around for a few months, I’d rather go with the lower range model because: 1- cost, 2-I’ve found that 99% of my driving falls within 75 miles, and 3-charging infrastructure is improving quickly.

If you’re going to do long distance road trips or drive for Uber or something then you should probably buy a Hybrid. Otherwise, 150 miles feels pretty good to me, 250 is almost overkill.

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