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UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

theguardian.com

31–40 of 112 posts

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#31

Can someone explain this, Matt Levine-style? I mean, if someone offered to pay me interest to take out a loan, I'd immediately request MAXINT.

The bank isn't going to pay anyone interest to take out a loan, still less a loan for MAXINT. It still has to cover repayment defaults and make a profit.

But changing the base rate from 0.1% to -0.5% incentivises the banking system to loan to consumers and businesses at lower rates

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#32
post #21

Can someone explain this, Matt Levine-style? I mean, if someone offered to pay me interest to take out a loan, I'd immediately request MAXINT.

> I'd immediately request MAXINT. Would you really though. They're trying to avoid deflation, if/when that happens the value of property and shares falls each year. What would you do with your loan if all assets fall in value each year?

If someone gives me a $10M loan at -1% interest, I would spend $200 on suitcases and a vacuum sealer kit and $200 to hire a mini-digger. I'd then go dig a 6 foot hole in a forest somewhere and hide the money as cash. I'd install some weather stations around the site with PIR sensors and 4G ($25 each, x4) just to see if someone comes hunting for my cash.

After 5 years, I return the cash. I earn $500k. Subtract off the $500 it cost me to set up and that's a pretty tidy profit for 2 days of my time. The chance of theft is well under 1% as long as nobody else knows where it is, so I still make a tidy profit even with a risk premium.

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#33
post #14

So if I take a loan, it would pay itself off after a while?

I don’t think so. All loans have terms and minimum payments. So if you borrow $1000 over a year at -1% you still have to make $990 in payments, or you will default.

So, forgive the ingenuity, what prevents me from taking that 1000 loan, park it in my bank account, and repay the 990 due in a year (earning 10 in the process)?

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#34

If chartered banks charge for ... holding cash ... don't people next create a new industry of unchartered financial institutions to hold money without charging so much? Like, safe deposit? Or insurance? This seems like an ivory tower exercise that has not yet met the messy realities of the world.

I think you can already see this playing out in gold and crypto.

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#35

Can anyone counter my impression that we are witnessing in the Western world the exact same course of events that happened in Japan in the 1990s? (low growth, high debt, ageing population, low interest rates, rising of average P/E ratios). Am I wrong to expect that corporate valuations in Europe and the U.S. will not appreciate in the coming decades as they have in past decades? Edit: Yes, the U.S. and Europe are ind…

Well, the Bank of England is also predicting a rebounding economy in the Summer for the UK because of the vaccine. A whole load of pent-up demand to live again, a dearth of travel opportunity so the money is spent in the UK, and everyone vaccinated so things open up ... So who knows ?

That would necessitate higher interest rates to cool down a heated economy, not low / negative rates.

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is that Dutch banks already have negative interest rates. They charge a negative interest to large account holders (over 1M euros) and a minimal positive rate for less wealthy clients. In reality I suspect that few end up in the 1M+ category since you can spread your money and keep the rest invested in the stock market or T-Bills if you really want security.

Any idea what happens when T-Bills go negative as happens in Germany? Do people hoard physical cash or gold?

I assume you just find rock solid corporate bonds. Apple issues bonds and they have assets far in excess of their debt load + massive profitability. Realistically as an individual you just move into equities. Institutions have different equations. Hoarding physical cash is probably not a good idea, since you have inflation (which probably exceeds the negative rate by quite a bit). It’s worth mentioning that cash holdings in a bank already have negative real growth because inflation exceeds interest (at least in my shitty low interest savings account)

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#37

Can someone explain this, Matt Levine-style? I mean, if someone offered to pay me interest to take out a loan, I'd immediately request MAXINT.

The origin of banks are people with castles agreeing to store valuables of people that don't have castles. You pay them to do that so you don't get robbed and lose your money.

So if you take your max int loan, where are you going to put it? Anywhere you store it has risk. Cash under the mattress can get robbed and investments can go bad.

If you really really want to be sure you get your money back then banks are the only option and in this case it's worth it to pay them.

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#38
post #5
post #2

Its about time it became normal in the UK for accounts to carry fees. I dont know how retail banking can continue without them. Esp the new fintechs they will have near-zero revenue coming in and have to pay to hold cash.

Why? Many banks are already making lots of money, regardless if you know how they make their money or not. I definitely do not agree that "its about time" to pay for having an account.

> Many banks are already making lots of money

I think you mean some UK banks made money before rates went negative. The ones that made the most are in corporate and investment banking. Retail is a disaster zone.

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is that Dutch banks already have negative interest rates. They charge a negative interest to large account holders (over 1M euros) and a minimal positive rate for less wealthy clients. In reality I suspect that few end up in the 1M+ category since you can spread your money and keep the rest invested in the stock market or T-Bills if you really want security.

Any idea what happens when T-Bills go negative as happens in Germany? Do people hoard physical cash or gold?

Hoarding highly liquid physical assets like gold or paper requires security which costs money. The negative interest rates are cheaper than buying equivalent security.

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#40
post #20
post #2

Its about time it became normal in the UK for accounts to carry fees. I dont know how retail banking can continue without them. Esp the new fintechs they will have near-zero revenue coming in and have to pay to hold cash.

If you go to your local branch and ask to pay some fees, I'm sure they can find a way to accommodate.

> If you go to your local branch

I dont even have one any more. And I imagine most will be shutting down very quickly now.

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