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UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

theguardian.com

21–30 of 112 posts

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#21

Can someone explain this, Matt Levine-style? I mean, if someone offered to pay me interest to take out a loan, I'd immediately request MAXINT.

> I'd immediately request MAXINT.

Would you really though. They're trying to avoid deflation, if/when that happens the value of property and shares falls each year. What would you do with your loan if all assets fall in value each year?

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#22
post #21

Can someone explain this, Matt Levine-style? I mean, if someone offered to pay me interest to take out a loan, I'd immediately request MAXINT.

> I'd immediately request MAXINT. Would you really though. They're trying to avoid deflation, if/when that happens the value of property and shares falls each year. What would you do with your loan if all assets fall in value each year?

Crypto?

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#23

If chartered banks charge for ... holding cash ... don't people next create a new industry of unchartered financial institutions to hold money without charging so much? Like, safe deposit? Or insurance? This seems like an ivory tower exercise that has not yet met the messy realities of the world.

My understanding is that Dutch banks already have negative interest rates. They charge a negative interest to large account holders (over 1M euros) and a minimal positive rate for less wealthy clients. In reality I suspect that few end up in the 1M+ category since you can spread your money and keep the rest invested in the stock market or T-Bills if you really want security.

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#24

Can anyone counter my impression that we are witnessing in the Western world the exact same course of events that happened in Japan in the 1990s? (low growth, high debt, ageing population, low interest rates, rising of average P/E ratios). Am I wrong to expect that corporate valuations in Europe and the U.S. will not appreciate in the coming decades as they have in past decades? Edit: Yes, the U.S. and Europe are ind…

More importantly, has Japan ever recovered from such state?

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#26

Can anyone counter my impression that we are witnessing in the Western world the exact same course of events that happened in Japan in the 1990s? (low growth, high debt, ageing population, low interest rates, rising of average P/E ratios). Am I wrong to expect that corporate valuations in Europe and the U.S. will not appreciate in the coming decades as they have in past decades? Edit: Yes, the U.S. and Europe are ind…

Europe yes. US, no. The US is in an amazing position in terms of demography and growth. Aging population, but not immigrant averse like Japan and not an island. The US borders a rising economy with perfect demographics for growth (Mexico). The US is the least involved country in global trade. The US is increasingly disinterested in being the world police, so that capability can be deployed to protect economic interests abroad.

We’re headed for global instability, but don’t expect the US to have a fate similar to Europe.

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#27

Can someone explain this, Matt Levine-style? I mean, if someone offered to pay me interest to take out a loan, I'd immediately request MAXINT.

It’s a negative interest rate for banks to keep their money with a central bank. It is supposed to discourage banks from hoarding money and stimulate the economy by giving out more loans. Like all things economic there are debates about if it works or not. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/12/do-negative-interest-rates-w...

But it's not just the rate with the central bank, they're forcing high street banks to prove that their systems can handle negative interest rates for consumer loans and mortgages.

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#28

Can anyone counter my impression that we are witnessing in the Western world the exact same course of events that happened in Japan in the 1990s? (low growth, high debt, ageing population, low interest rates, rising of average P/E ratios). Am I wrong to expect that corporate valuations in Europe and the U.S. will not appreciate in the coming decades as they have in past decades? Edit: Yes, the U.S. and Europe are ind…

Well, the Bank of England is also predicting a rebounding economy in the Summer for the UK because of the vaccine. A whole load of pent-up demand to live again, a dearth of travel opportunity so the money is spent in the UK, and everyone vaccinated so things open up ...

So who knows ?

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#29

Can anyone counter my impression that we are witnessing in the Western world the exact same course of events that happened in Japan in the 1990s? (low growth, high debt, ageing population, low interest rates, rising of average P/E ratios). Am I wrong to expect that corporate valuations in Europe and the U.S. will not appreciate in the coming decades as they have in past decades? Edit: Yes, the U.S. and Europe are ind…

Well, the Bank of England is also predicting a rebounding economy in the Summer for the UK because of the vaccine. A whole load of pent-up demand to live again, a dearth of travel opportunity so the money is spent in the UK, and everyone vaccinated so things open up ... So who knows ?

That's more short-term with regard to OP's question.

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#30

If chartered banks charge for ... holding cash ... don't people next create a new industry of unchartered financial institutions to hold money without charging so much? Like, safe deposit? Or insurance? This seems like an ivory tower exercise that has not yet met the messy realities of the world.

My understanding is that Dutch banks already have negative interest rates. They charge a negative interest to large account holders (over 1M euros) and a minimal positive rate for less wealthy clients. In reality I suspect that few end up in the 1M+ category since you can spread your money and keep the rest invested in the stock market or T-Bills if you really want security.

Any idea what happens when T-Bills go negative as happens in Germany? Do people hoard physical cash or gold?
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