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The reverse brain drain

bbc.co.uk

11–20 of 59 posts

Re: The reverse brain drain

#11
post #2

India is definitely a country to watch. With China's one-child-per-family rule, it could very well be India that becomes the new super power in the next 20-50 years...

A lot of my family is considering moving back. Things are getting better, but infrastructure still largely sucks (but improving).

Re: The reverse brain drain

#12
post #2

India is definitely a country to watch. With China's one-child-per-family rule, it could very well be India that becomes the new super power in the next 20-50 years...

I'd like this to be true, but I can't help thinking that much of this is just wishful thinking. India has terrible infrastructure, which as far as I can make out is only getting worse. All-pervasive corruption is a big problem as well, as is the fact that _all_ (at least something like 85% or more) politicians are criminals. The (completely unscientific) impression I get is that things got better between 1995-2005 an…

I think you unscientific impression is leading you astray.

India has its share of problems, and it has its share of corrupt politicians. But it also has a pretty robust democracy and part of what returnees are bringing home is an appreciation for governments that work vs ones that don't. And when the people don't tolerate an ineffective government they change it.

The other thing India is, is big. There is a lot of country there. While it's true you can find abject poverty and people manually crushing rocks with bigger rocks to make a handful of gravel to sell, you can also find vibrant urban centers with shopping centers and affluence that would make you think you were back in Europe or the US.

Its an interesting transition, and if they pull it off they will become a threat to China. But their economic development also puts a damper on some of the saber rattling too.

My own take on it is that nothing but good can come of India developing its economy into a completely vertically integrated one.

Re: The reverse brain drain

#13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

things are still getting better. the presence of bad things doesn't mean you can ignore a huge upswing in living standards all over a country of a billion+ people.

> the presence of bad things doesn't mean you can ignore a huge upswing in living standards all over a country of a billion+ people. You can say that about China, but not about India. Things have not improved much for the average Indian. In fact, in many places it's gotten worse.

Everywhere I go in Pune, I see new stores, new shopping malls, new apartment complexes advertising Italian marble and fitness centers [1]. The traffic on the roads today is unprecedented, caused by the fact that a huge number of Indians can now afford cars (car production has increased about 500% over the past 10 years).

Don't get me wrong - it's got a long way to go. This morning I just jogged through undocumented housing without plumbing or electricity. But to say things have not improved is just ridiculous - even many of the people without electricity had cellphones. (Certain shops let you charge a cellphone for a few rupees.)

[1] The fitness centers are, unfortunately, never used. My apt complex has a gym, and the weights are always exactly where I leave them.

Re: The reverse brain drain

#14
post #2

India is definitely a country to watch. With China's one-child-per-family rule, it could very well be India that becomes the new super power in the next 20-50 years...

Unlike China, India is a multicultural society. India might disintegrate like USSR in next 20-50 years http://www.lewrockwell.com/sowell/sowell24.1.html

Re: The reverse brain drain

#15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the presence of bad things doesn't mean you can ignore a huge upswing in living standards all over a country of a billion+ people. You can say that about China, but not about India. Things have not improved much for the average Indian. In fact, in many places it's gotten worse.

Can we get some objective data or examples for these claims?

Former USSR republics are doing better than India http://doingbusiness.org/rankings

   Georgia - 12,
   Estonia - 17,
   Lithuania - 23
   Latvia - 24,
   Kyrgyzstan - 44,
   Armenia - 48,
   Azerbaijan - 54,
   Kazakhstan - 59,
   Belarus - 68,
   Moldova - 90,
   Russia - 123,
   .
   INDIA - 134

CARS PER 1000 PEOPLE

   Moldova - 49,
   Azerbaijan - 51,
   Belarus - 87,
   Ukraine - 140,
   Kazakhstan - 170,
   Russia - 213,
   Latvia - 372,
   Estonia - 410,
   Lithuania - 453
    .
   INDIA - 12
GLOBAL PEACE INDEX

   Lithuania - 42,
   Estonia - 46,
   Latvia - 54,
   Moldova - 66,
   Kazakhstan - 95,
   Ukraine - 97,
   Belarus - 105,
   Uzbekistan - 110,
   Armenia - 113,
   Turkmenistan - 117,
   Azerbaijan - 119,
   .
   INDIA - 128

Re: The reverse brain drain

#16
post #2

India is definitely a country to watch. With China's one-child-per-family rule, it could very well be India that becomes the new super power in the next 20-50 years...

I'd like this to be true, but I can't help thinking that much of this is just wishful thinking. India has terrible infrastructure, which as far as I can make out is only getting worse. All-pervasive corruption is a big problem as well, as is the fact that _all_ (at least something like 85% or more) politicians are criminals. The (completely unscientific) impression I get is that things got better between 1995-2005 an…

Are you saying that Chinese authorities are not corrupt? Did the state controlled media of China make you believe so?

Take a look at Corruption Index published by Transparency International:

http://transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/...

Both China and India are the same. In fact, with free-media, India has a greater chance of tackling corruption in the future than China.

Re: The reverse brain drain

#17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the presence of bad things doesn't mean you can ignore a huge upswing in living standards all over a country of a billion+ people. You can say that about China, but not about India. Things have not improved much for the average Indian. In fact, in many places it's gotten worse.

The United Nations Human Development Report doesn't seem to agree: http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/IND.html . What do you mean?

Kashmir is excluded from India in that map.

Re: The reverse brain drain

#18
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/07/world/asia/07iht-letter07....

This article is an apt read here; but in a little different context. The article talks about Indians fighting against real India which is undeniable, but the flip side is that this is the same fight which is enabling people in India to work the way they want. Sans the economic liberation, if development was left in the hand of Govt. (a job well done in China), we would not be seeing this spur. If that little percentage of Indians were not fighting against the real India to create their own work, India would not be where it is today. I am not trying to claim any top spot and I know that almost nothing has been done till now, but the improvements cannot be ignored. Talk about the IT companies; irrespective of the quality of work they do, they have definitely achieved something (USD6-10 billion in revenue) which looked impossible few years back, and when you see them operating you will find that they have hardly anything to do with the Govt. support, they manage their infra from tip to toe and sometimes they contribute to the surrounding infra too.

Re: The reverse brain drain

#19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

things are still getting better. the presence of bad things doesn't mean you can ignore a huge upswing in living standards all over a country of a billion+ people.

> the presence of bad things doesn't mean you can ignore a huge upswing in living standards all over a country of a billion+ people. You can say that about China, but not about India. Things have not improved much for the average Indian. In fact, in many places it's gotten worse.

What are you talking about? The UN's Millennium Development Goal (MDG) report says:

"India is expected to reduce its poverty rate from 51 per cent in 1990 to 24 per cent in 2015, reducing its number of extremely poor by 188 million."

http://news.outlookindia.com/item.aspx?685779

Re: The reverse brain drain

#20
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can we get some objective data or examples for these claims?

Former USSR republics are doing better than India http://doingbusiness.org/rankings Georgia - 12, Estonia - 17, Lithuania - 23 Latvia - 24, Kyrgyzstan - 44, Armenia - 48, Azerbaijan - 54, Kazakhstan - 59, Belarus - 68, Moldova - 90, Russia - 123, . INDIA - 134 CARS PER 1000 PEOPLE Moldova - 49, Azerbaijan - 51, Belarus - 87, Ukraine - 140, Kazakhstan - 170, Russia - 213, Latvia - 372, Estonia - 410, Lithuania - 453 .…

We're talking about whether India has made progress from its own past. Why are you bringing former Soviet states for comparison?
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