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Counterfeiting Stock – Explaining illegal naked shorting and stock manipulation

counterfeitingstock.com

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Re: Counterfeiting Stock – Explaining illegal naked shorting and stock manipulation

#271
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When A borrows a share, they sell it to D. Now as far as anyone knows, both A and D own a share but in fact only one exists. The extra sale from A to D also influences the stock price. What some consider bets are creating actual volume on the exchange, along with temporary dilution of shates.

What do you mean by "temporary dilution of shares"? All the shareholders will get dividends, for example. The same as if there were no shorts. The only thing that those who lend their shares will lose is the voting rights - and those who don't lend their shares will vote normally.

That doesn't make sense. If I have to pay each share 5$, and I have given out 500 shares, but when it's time to pay out dividends 700 shares show up to claim them,then someone has to lose money right? Either I have to give 5$ to 200 shares that I never sold to people to begin with, or the 500 people who actually bought shares from me lose some of their portion to the extra 200. What am I missing if that's not the case? Surely that dividend money for those extra 200 shares has to come from somewhere?

Re: Counterfeiting Stock – Explaining illegal naked shorting and stock manipulation

#272
post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It also bankrupts viable businesses, when there is more short speculation than long speculation.

No that's false. Short selling a stock doesn't reduce the business's assets (except for treasury stock) or increase it's liabilities. Even if theoretically short sellers drove the $GME share price to zero the GameStop business would still exist.

But it will make it more expensive than otherwise to raise capital. That can make or break any company.

Re: Counterfeiting Stock – Explaining illegal naked shorting and stock manipulation

#273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure you read the article. Author is alleging the prime broker/clearing house system regularly "gives out" shares to sell on the market (diluting company's shares) with no transparency in the reconciliation because the main clearing system is privately owned. You're better off reading the full article since my summary is extremely surface level.

> with no transparency in the reconciliation because the main clearing system is privately owned The DTCC provides extensive reporting to market participants, including issuers [1]. [1] https://www.dtcc.com/settlement-and-asset-services/issuer-se...

A daily report is 9450.00 USD per year per security as far as I can tell.

https://www.dtcc.com/settlement-and-asset-services/issuer-se...

Re: Counterfeiting Stock – Explaining illegal naked shorting and stock manipulation

#274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can think of shorting as betting that the stock will go down. For example, Alice can write on a piece of paper: "Anytime anyone wants to sell this paper back to me, I'll pay a sum equal to the price of GME at that moment". Now if Alice sells the paper to Bob, Alice is short and Bob is long, even though none of them touched any stock. Of course if many Alices do that, that will push down the price of GME, because…

What this example has anything to do with selling something you don't own? It's like a thief would explain why he "borrowed" a car and then sold it and will promise it will get it back to the owner. Apparently stockmarket has an exemption for this behaviour, maybe they pay big sums to law enforcement to turn the blind eye.

The rules of the stock market say reselling borrowed securities is ok though, and both borrowers and lenders agree to these rules when entering into deals. I'm not sure why anyone needs to turn a blind eye.

Re: Counterfeiting Stock – Explaining illegal naked shorting and stock manipulation

#275
It's trivial to prove that naked short selling doesn't exist the way the author thinks it does.

a) Take my word for it. I am a former VC now working as a professional short seller (for the past eight years; my first really great short idea I found from a comment on HN). When I instruct our prime broker to short a stock, I must provide a matching locate id that corresponds to a specific block of borrowed stock. No locate id, no trade. Can't locate the stock to borrow to obtain a locate id? No trade.

Get a margin account and try it yourself.

b) Borrow costs. If I could short sell anything I wanted without having to borrow the stock, there wouldn't be such a thing as a borrow cost. I could short anything in as much size as I wanted for free. (And retail traders wouldn't get paid for lending their shares, which happens all the time.)

c) Recalls. If naked shorting were a thing, there would be no such thing as stock borrows getting recalled. Again, take my word for it, they happen.

d) Margin. Would I have to post cash collateral to our prime broker to borrow a stock if I could naked short? There's no stock I need to return, as I wouldn't have borrowed it from anyone. I mean, I guess I could still lose money short a stock and they'd want some protection against that, but I doubt we'd have Reg T margin rules if naked short selling were a thing.

And nobody could make me close the short, unless the company got sold. I could just stay short forever, as I haven't borrowed anything that ever needs to be returned.

So if interest rates were >0%, I could just naked short at no fee, let the cash from the short sale sit in my account collecting interest, and never have to cover the short. I'd also pay no dividends on the borrowed stock, as I presently must, as I hadn't actually borrowed it.

In other words, riskless profit for everybody. Let me know if you find one of those.

e) There are dozens of stocks out there that I (and lots of other people) believe will likely be worth zero one day, but it's uneconomic to make that bet as the borrow cost is 90%+. If I could naked short, I'd make a huge fortune shorting them to zero. Other people would make huge fortunes. Neither I nor other short sellers have such fortunes. If short sellers made fortunes, there'd be hundreds of short-only funds. There are barely a handful remaining.

More broadly, I've worked on hundreds of shorts over the past eight years. In some cases, the company was perfectly legitimate, just overvalued by an enthusiastic market. I've also helped expose companies that were screwing people and lying to investors, in several cases resulting in SEC investigations and criminal indictments. And I've lost money when companies got bought by other companies that later wrote off the entire investment. I've also been straight up wrong on plenty of them, and exited the position when that became clear.

An important function of the market is price discovery, and my job--like that of a long-oriented analyst--is to express the reasoned view that the current price is wrong. It's not a market if there's no way to express a contrary view.

Nothing I say or do can keep a company from raising capital or succeeding if the bull case is more convincing than the bear case. (Again, if I could destroy companies based on shorting them--even if I had to borrow the stock--I'd never lose money. So everyone would do it.) Netflix has had short interest forever and ever, and proved all the doubters wrong.

And if you don't believe that overly high prices lead to misallocated investment in nonsense projects, take a good look at the amount of money sloshign around Silicon Valley these days.

The fact is, it's a lot more fun and profitable to be a venture capitalist than it is to be a short seller, and there's a lot more VCs as a result.

Re: Counterfeiting Stock – Explaining illegal naked shorting and stock manipulation

#276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't selling something you don't own a fraud or the stock market has an exemption? The instance when A essentially sells the share to B accepting the right to receive the share back as a payment also wouldn't fly in any other environment, as this could just open the door to money laundering. So why is this accepted in the stock market? Or simply the law enforcement doesn't know how to tackle it?

> Isn't selling something you don't own a fraud or the stock market has an exemption? I call up Dominos and order a pepperoni pizza. They take my order and process my credit card. They’ve just sold me a pizza that doesn’t exist. Is this fraud?

How about if I sell a million pizzas to be delivered next month then put out articles about how Dominos has poison in their pizzas! People will forget or won't want the order and I will pocket the money. These short sellers are a scam.

Re: Counterfeiting Stock – Explaining illegal naked shorting and stock manipulation

#277
post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> naked short selling at volume will create a self-fulfilling prophecy To be super clear, naked short selling is banned for everyone but market makers [1]. A market maker goes naked short when there is a buying frenzy. Their economic incentive is to then cover the short given they are in a buying frenzy . The NYSE explicitly markets its specialist system to issuers as a stabiliser mechanism. It’s a selling point to l…

Though arguably, naked short selling should be allowed as well. (With certain safe guards and sufficient margin requirements.) After all, we allow something similar to naked short selling when people write options or trade futures. And those markets work just fine.

As an investor I would rather an actual share, than a promise. They are not fungible to me. Even disregarding the risks, an actual share comes with voting rights.

Re: Counterfeiting Stock – Explaining illegal naked shorting and stock manipulation

#278
post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is that the value of AAPL is just the value of its future dividends. As long as a creditworthy institution guarantees the same stream of dividends, they are identical in value from the investors perspective. The biggest asterisk is hand waving away the credit worthiness of the synthetic issuer. But this is a solved problem. We have plenty of derivative markets, where a counterparty guarantees some cash flow…

> As long as a creditworthy institution guarantees the same stream of dividends, they are identical in value from the investors perspective. No, the stream of dividends doesn't have identical value. There are other relevant corporate actions. Shares can vote, your stream of dividends cannot vote. If the company spins-off a segment it may distribute shares of the new company to shareholders while the owners of that th…

Those are all great points, but IMO not really that difficult to handle.

> If the company spins-off a segment

A spinoff is just a divided in the form of stock in the new segment. This is easy to handle. The short is now simply short both one share of the original and one share of the spinoff. The long now owns synthetic shares in both.

> If someone wants to acquire the company

An acquisition is just a one-time terminal dividend to the company. In a cash acquisition the short owes the long the value paid for the stock. In a stock acquisition the short is now short the equivalent shares of the acquiring company.

> Shares can vote, your stream of dividends cannot vote.

This is the biggest wrinkle. But it basically still exists even in the current system. If a stock has short interest of 50%, then there's 150 shares held long for every 100 shares of float. In practice it's not really that big a deal because 99% of investors just vote the proxy.

At voting time, some investors will find they own synthetics and some will find they own originals. Just the same as today some will find their stocks on loan, and they can't vote. It doesn't really seem to make a difference.

IMO I think a requirement for public listing should be letting all beneficial owners, including those who own synthetic shares/have shares on loan. I think if anything it strengthens corporate governance, by avoiding voting rights shenanigans. The two classes have equal interest in setting the company perform well.

Re: Counterfeiting Stock – Explaining illegal naked shorting and stock manipulation

#279
post #208
post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> With normal shorting the number of shares being traded is no greater than the float. Only with naked shorting can there be more shares traded than float, as in the parent's example. Interestingly, in both cases the short interest can be greater than 100%. Why? A owns a share, loans it to short seller B. B sells the loaned share back to A. Then A loans the share again to B, B sells it back to A. Now repeat the proce…

I somewhat follow, but it seems shares have privileges that cannot be synthesized in the same way that dividends and value can. For example, if the firm votes for a new CEO, these shares should have voting power, but B cannot fulfill this obligation to A, so how can these shares be resold to multiple buyers?

When A loans out her shares, she accepts the loss of voting rights as part of the deal. If she cares more about voting her shares than about the income from lending, she will simply direct her broker not to loan out her shares.

In the “A loans to B who sells to C” scenario, C is the one who gets to vote.

Re: Counterfeiting Stock – Explaining illegal naked shorting and stock manipulation

#280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is a really simple reason for not allowing naked short selling and that is the potential for effectively creating a divide by 0 error, when the short sellers have to cover their short The point of a naked short system is that short sellers never need to cover their positions. Naked shorting allows any credit worthy institution to create synthetic shares as long as they continue to pay the dividends. That’s wh…

And what happens in the shareholder meeting? Would the previous majority shareholder group lose their majority even if they had sold no shares? Or would the new majority shareholders have no decision making power even though they have more "shares"?

AFAIK a stock that is available to lend does not have voting power. Hence, if you put a stock up for lending (even if no-one actually lends it) you can no longer vote with it.

This can be used to get more votes by borrowing stocks just to hold and vote.

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