Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is the problem - someone is selling something they don't own. It's like you borrowed a car from a rental company and then you sold it to someone. Pretty sure that's a crime. If this is allowed on the stock market, then I think this is laziness of law enforcement that they don't know what to do with it. What if the owner wants the item back and the person you sold it to won't sell it? It seems like this may be th…
You can think of shorting as betting that the stock will go down. For example, Alice can write on a piece of paper: "Anytime anyone wants to sell this paper back to me, I'll pay a sum equal to the price of GME at that moment". Now if Alice sells the paper to Bob, Alice is short and Bob is long, even though none of them touched any stock. Of course if many Alices do that, that will push down the price of GME, because…
Counterfeiting Stock – Explaining illegal naked shorting and stock manipulation
251–260 of 403 posts
Re: Counterfeiting Stock – Explaining illegal naked shorting and stock manipulation
#252This is mostly nonsense. There is nothing wrong with there being more shares short than shares outstanding. It just seems problematic, until you think it through. Person A has 1 share of company Y. Person B borrows 1 share of company Y from person A, and then sells it into the market. This is called a short sale. But person B just sold their borrowed share. Now that share is owned by person C. Person C can now lend i…
> and the process can repeat infinitely. If it is possible to 'create' and sell an infinite amount of shares, wouldn't this automatically and artificially dilute the stock price, making these short attacks self-fulfilling prophecies? This makes me think, that the theory that retail traders own more than 100% of GME might actually be true and that this is the reason why the situation is still not resolved.
But it's a same concerns longs have. If people borrow non-stock (money) and buy too much stock the price goes up, self fulfilling prophecy.
Re: Counterfeiting Stock – Explaining illegal naked shorting and stock manipulation
#253Time to read the SEC SHO FAQ [1] again: > Question 7.1: Do naked short sale transactions create "counterfeit shares?" > Answer: Some believe that naked short sale transactions cause the number of shares trading to exceed the number of shares outstanding, which in turn allows broker-dealers to trade shares that don't exist. Others believe that the U.S. clearance and settlement system, and specifically the NSCC’s CNS,…
An overspecific dementi: Surely, it has no effect on issuer's total shares outstanding but on shares outstanding.
GME had 140% short interest, issuance was 100%, so there was -40% float. So there was less float than for a non-publicly traded company (which would be 0)
How would you like it if I sell more than 100% of your company? Should I be allowed to in the first place?
"significant confusion" indeed
Re: Counterfeiting Stock – Explaining illegal naked shorting and stock manipulation
#254Earlier quoted context omitted.
> There is a really simple reason for not allowing naked short selling and that is the potential for effectively creating a divide by 0 error, when the short sellers have to cover their short The point of a naked short system is that short sellers never need to cover their positions. Naked shorting allows any credit worthy institution to create synthetic shares as long as they continue to pay the dividends. That’s wh…
> That’s what makes it IMO a superior system. Wouldn't you want to know if what you bought are actually, say, AAPL shares or "synthetic shares"? An AAPL share will always be worth an AAPL share. What can you say about those "synthetic shares"?
The biggest asterisk is hand waving away the credit worthiness of the synthetic issuer. But this is a solved problem. We have plenty of derivative markets, where a counterparty guarantees some cash flow related to an underlying security. You just use central clearing houses and set reasonable margin. Nobody worries about whether their options will actually payoff or if their futures contract will default.
Re: Counterfeiting Stock – Explaining illegal naked shorting and stock manipulation
#255Earlier quoted context omitted.
Can only agree. There is a really simple reason for not allowing naked short selling and that is the potential for effectively creating a divide by 0 error, when the short sellers have to cover their short, and there aren't enough shares available. It really is that simple. While this doesn't mean a price of infinity, since price is also constrained by the available money for the purchase, in reality this then become…
> There is a really simple reason for not allowing naked short selling and that is the potential for effectively creating a divide by 0 error, when the short sellers have to cover their short The point of a naked short system is that short sellers never need to cover their positions. Naked shorting allows any credit worthy institution to create synthetic shares as long as they continue to pay the dividends. That’s wh…
Re: Counterfeiting Stock – Explaining illegal naked shorting and stock manipulation
#256Earlier quoted context omitted.
What your describing still sounds incredibly dodgy. The price of anything is a result of its some intrinsic value and the volume of supply. So a precious stone is valuable because of its beauty, but also because it's rare. If someone mines a billion such stones, it won't affect their individual beauty, but it will certainly reduce the price someone is willing to pay for one. Now, you seem to be saying that short sell…
It doesn't inflate the supply, because the amount of people who own the share is equal to the number of actual shares, plus the number of people who are short the share. All the people who are short the share have to buy it back in the future. So the additional supply has exactly been matched by additional demand. What you are saying is like saying that lending money to your friend creates inflation by expanding the…
Not if the company goes bankrupt though, right?
Seems like a potential strategy hedge funds can use (and maybe are using) is to short a company a ton and collect a lot of money from that. They can short more than the float, so even collecting more cash then the market cap of the company. This drives the price down, because there is more supply. The more they short, the more the price goes down. Then they just wait for the company to go bankrupt, which is more likely since the company's share price is in the dumpster.
Re: Counterfeiting Stock – Explaining illegal naked shorting and stock manipulation
#257Very, very much a crank site. One pinch fact, two cups of confusion, and generous splash of seething rage. It's interesting in much the way the Timecube site is interesting...and is informative about financial markets in much the same way the Timecube site is as well.
How so? Could you please explain for someone who only knows enough to see this as potentially credible? I tried to research timecube but can't see the connection.
Briefly, if you're familiar with a field, you can (generally) tell if an argument is at least trying to engage with the field, or if it exists in some disconnected parallel universe. This happens a lot more than you might think. It's a real issue in physics (see, eg, https://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/cranks-and-phy... or https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/in-physics-...), but it pops up everywhere.
I believe I am familiar enough with this area to say this is the work of a crank. Some key problems:
1. There's a huge body of scholarship out there about markets, how they work, how to think about them, how they may fail, how you can measure how they're failing, etc. This doesn't engage with any of that. It's not "Prof X said Y is true, but my data suggests he was wrong, see table 2", it's just "everything you think you know about Y is wrong".
2. Also, the paper is making up its own terms. That's actually a pretty good rule: Any paper that tries to discuss a topic and starts with a bunch of idiosyncratic definitions of basic terms is a huge red flag, because anyone in the field knows what those words mean already. So again, you're clearly not writing for an audience of people who could critique your argument. But if you're not looking for a critique, why are you writing at all? How can you know you're right unless the top experts in the field have tried to tear you apart and failed? Which they won't do if you don't engage with them.
3. There's no data anywhere, just assertions which (again, as someone a bit familiar with the field) seem wildly implausible. Eg:
> At any given point in time more than 100 emerging companies are under attack as described above. [...] The success rate for short attacks is over ninety percent—a success being defined as putting the company into bankruptcy or driving the stock price to pennies. It is estimated that 1000 small companies have been put out of business by the shorts.
So more than 100 companies are being attacked every moment of the day. There's no real definition of what an attack might be, or how you might count this, nor is there any evidence given of where the author came up with this number, or how long an attack lasts, or a list of companies under attack at the time of writing. Then we're told that these attacks succeed 90%(!) of the time, bankrupting the company(!). Again, no information why we might think such attacks succeed at all, much less 90% of the time, nor any acknowledgement of the huge body of research suggesting shorting does no such thing. Then we say "it is estimated" (by whom? when?) that 1000 companies have been so bankrupted. ...if 100+ companies are being attacked, and this has been going on for many years, and the success rate is 90%, and the result is bankruptcy, how come only 1000 companies have been bankrupted? Also, again, how come we can't seem to name any of these companies?
Also, I elided a passage of the quote above, which is:
> This is not to be confused with the day–to—day shorting that occurs in virtually every stock, which is purportedly about thirty percent of the daily volume.
That probably sounds pretty wild too. But actually, last I heard, the actual number was more like 49%, because that's how stock markets work. You ask your broker to buy 100 shares of Apple, and he'll sell you 100 shares (short), then go buy the rest on the market. As a general rule, whenever you buy shares it shows up as a short order, and whenever you sell shares it shows up as a long order. Since any time someone buys someone else is selling, about half the order volume is short orders. Simple.
But consider: The author got the number wrong (it's ~50%, not ~30%), which is a bit embarrassing. Worse, it's a number which exists. "Purportedly about thirty percent"? You don't need to use anonymous rumours. Why not "according to the SEC it's 49%"? (Some slightly old numbers here: https://www.sec.gov/files/short-sale-position-and-transactio..., I believe newer ones are reported regularly, although I'm not quite sure where to look, because I'm not an expert on finance writing about fundamental market structure questions. But I do know the numbers exist, and anyone qualified to write the paper the author is wring would have them at the tips of their fingertips. And of course, the bigger issue is that number has nothing to do with what he's actually talking about. Unless of course he's talking about some other number entirely, but how would we know, because he doesn't actually explain it or cite it!
That's a lot of errors to pack into such a short passage! And then consider his rant about the grandfather clause (linked from the main article, or available here: http://counterfeitingstock.com/CS2.0/CS1TheGrandfatherClause...) Read what's being said carefully; I would paraphrase it as: "The initial regulation grandfathered a group of transactions. Authorities claimed the size of this group was small, but I (and unnamed others) believed they were wrong. This exception was later closed; if I was correct and it covered a large number of transactions, this would have had a large impact, but it actually had a very small impact, in line with what the SEC had stated all long. Since the data suggests I was wrong, this proves the conspiracy goes much deeper than I had realised!" This is not falsifiable; if reality agrees with his predictions it means he's right, if it disagrees with his predictions it means he was even more right. If everything that happens or does not happen proves the SEC is lying then....what now?
And so forth. Note that nothing says this guy (or any other "crank") is wrong; by chance if nothing else they'll occasionally be right! The problem is that science, finance, economics, software engineering, etc. are all disciplines that require many people to work together, building on the work of those that came before. If you come up with your own arguments using your own terminology and your own data, nobody will ever understand what you're trying to say, nobody will ever engage with or vet your arguments, nobody will ever have any reason to trust your arguments, etc.
Re: Counterfeiting Stock – Explaining illegal naked shorting and stock manipulation
#258This is mostly nonsense. There is nothing wrong with there being more shares short than shares outstanding. It just seems problematic, until you think it through. Person A has 1 share of company Y. Person B borrows 1 share of company Y from person A, and then sells it into the market. This is called a short sale. But person B just sold their borrowed share. Now that share is owned by person C. Person C can now lend i…
> This is mostly nonsense. Agreed. People should be able to take the pessimistic side of a trade. The one problem I could see with short selling is not the technical act of selling short, but the (dis)information campaign around a company that appears to follow. But, this happens both ways good and bad so it's probably a wash. > Most of Wall Street hates short sellers, because they drive down the prices of companies…
In the widely reported Gamestop case, they write that over 140% of all shares were naked shorted - aka created from thin air.
This is very different to normal shorting, that is ok.
Re: Counterfeiting Stock – Explaining illegal naked shorting and stock manipulation
#259Earlier quoted context omitted.
You can absolutely sell 5 bananas 500 times. You can't have 500 net buys (i.e. someone is 'long 500 bananas', or 500 people 'long' 1, etc.), but sales, fine!
>You can absolutely sell 5 bananas 500 times. But that is not the point. The point is you had 5 bananas to sell and 500 people who bought 1 banana each. Now all 500 monkeys wants its dinner so please deliver. If you can't it is fraud. The mental gymnastics in the stock market are insane. More shares have been sold than exists. That has nothing to do with the amount of times they were sold.
Re: Counterfeiting Stock – Explaining illegal naked shorting and stock manipulation
#260Earlier quoted context omitted.
People sell things they don’t own all the time line their house or car. When you borrow a share and sell it, you’re really renting it to find one much like someone rented it to you. It’s like subletting an apartment you’re renting from a landlord. In the end there’s a chain and if the person who lent you the share wants it back then the person you loaned it to will need to produce it for you, etc. This is why we have…
I don't think this is the same. If you sell a house that is mortgaged you essentially pay off the mortage and therefore gain ownership and then transfer that ownership onto the buyer. The example with subletting is also wrong - the fitting analogy would be if you rented a flat and then sold it to someone.
The analogies hold though - people sell things they don’t own all the time. The important thing to understand is it is based on promises to deliver an asset/money by a certain date.
Likewise people buy assets on margin all the time. This means people can buy things they don’t have money for based on a promise they will pay that money back. Credit cards, mortgages, auto loans, bonds, etc.
This is how our finance system works and for whatever problems it has, the future promise concept isn’t one. Especially with the regulations and limits on it.