171–180 of 207 posts
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Being a 4 digit net worth grad student in Europe, riding a few meme stocks just for a short-while has increased my 'wealth' and given me tremendous amount of financial freedom. I understand that the odds are against me, but really, the expectation even when accounting for variance, and adjusting for risk tolerance are a no brainer to me. I made >40% of my net worth in the first 2 weeks of January alone, and with GME…
Are these returns after tax?
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The trouble is that, if it works, why wouldn't you try it again? You're not only a single data point, you are also a snapshot in time. Two months ago, you didn't have much. And, unless you truly decide to stop doing what you're doing, you are likely to have about the same two months from now.
This is exactly right. Posts just like OPs can be found all over the internet, yet it doesn't change the simple facts. Rarely, if ever, do these people come back months later to report that indeed they kept trading and lost all of their gains (if not more). What you have in OP is a snapshot in their time; hardly the complete story. Time will tell, as they say.
The variable is "amount of potential interactions with the environment". People are a part of ones environment.
Compared to someone who sits at home all day, the odds of "having luck" increase dramatically simply by going outside and walking around.
This includes "meeting new or old people", talking to them, sharing what you do etc.
What the author completely ignores is that it also increases the odds of getting unlucky.
I feel like the author has a rather romantic perspective on this.
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You can be passionate and content. There are plenty of passionate artists, athletes and engineers who don't care about going pro, getting famous or changing the world. For example, I'm passionate about software development, but I make simple things that don't matter. I'm passionate about cooking, but only for myself and the occasional guest. I'm also passionate about the website I live from, but I don't worry much ab…
I think this is just a simple semantics distinction. I believe what you mean by passion is interest, and what OP means by passion is drive. I think you're discussing slightly different things. I don't believe it is possible to be driven and satisfied at the same time. But I believe it is possible to be interested and content simultaneously.
I'm just not driven by the desire to be successful. I'm content with home-cooked meals and their software equivalent.
Coincidentally I just read this today: "There is no such thing in the world as luck. There never was a man who could go out in the morning and find a purse full of gold in the street to-day, and another to-morrow, and so on, day after day: He may do so once in his life; but so far as mere luck is concerned, he is as liable to lose it as to find it. "Like causes produce like effects." If a man adopts the proper method…
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Your observation about young people with four-figure net worths thinking it’s rational to gamble it all on options is pretty much this week’s equivalent of those living paycheck-to-paycheck “investing” in the lottery. The bigger problem is that this is rarely just a one-time decision to gamble. And repeatedly doing this is statistically pretty certain to lose you significant amounts of money—particularly when compare…
Being a 4 digit net worth grad student in Europe, riding a few meme stocks just for a short-while has increased my 'wealth' and given me tremendous amount of financial freedom. I understand that the odds are against me, but really, the expectation even when accounting for variance, and adjusting for risk tolerance are a no brainer to me. I made >40% of my net worth in the first 2 weeks of January alone, and with GME…
So always put only a part of your net worth into these risky "bets".
If you put 10% in, you can only lose 10%, and you could still double your net worth.
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> Hell, just watching Cramer get upset is enough for me to realize the rich aren't happy with what's happening. The "rich" are a large group. Much larger than the few names that have been on the news recently. There have been plenty of believable reports about funds that already made crapton of money on this attempted squeeze. Now, that everyone's eyes are on $GME, many more will make fortunes riding the stock down.…
And many people are happy making fortunes riding GME up. Why does nobody ever talk about those stories? If the rich get richer playing the same game as everyone else - good for them! The point is we're playing the same game.
There's been wall-to-wall coverage of DeepF*Value and the other lucky people who are getting out early. Half the stories on here, on Reddit, in newspapers and on TV. You sound frankly delusional claiming nobody talked about them.
(Highlighting the past winners is essential for every pyramid scheme, for recruiting greater fools.)
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Being a 4 digit net worth grad student in Europe, riding a few meme stocks just for a short-while has increased my 'wealth' and given me tremendous amount of financial freedom. I understand that the odds are against me, but really, the expectation even when accounting for variance, and adjusting for risk tolerance are a no brainer to me. I made >40% of my net worth in the first 2 weeks of January alone, and with GME…
The trouble is that, if it works, why wouldn't you try it again? You're not only a single data point, you are also a snapshot in time. Two months ago, you didn't have much. And, unless you truly decide to stop doing what you're doing, you are likely to have about the same two months from now.
I understand that this sounds like a rationalising gambling behaviour, and in part it is, but on the other hand, making money it is a multi-objective problem.
Maximize net worth subject to minimizing risk and time.
There are many ways to play this; you can throw a considerable amount of money in stuff like AAPL/MSFT and so on, and that is a good position to be in, infact MSFT went up 350% IIRC in the last 5 years, that's nearly +35% YOY.
Alternatively, you can gamble small amounts and capitalize on the FOMO by identifying bubbles, riding them, and getting out fast enough by not getting too greedy. This isn't the best strategy long term because you can miss good opportunities, like AMD, but this falls into acquiring more domain knowledge. Plus it sounds like trying to time the market, as many do, but I disagree. Many who try riding the bubble try to time the peak. I disagree with that approach. The goal is to get out fast enough to outpace the market.
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i was one of those that was just certain trump was going to tank the economy. my thinking was "he has no clue, and his bumbling around will ruin it". very wrong, and missed out on a lot of gains. and not too sure of when to start dollar cost averaging back in.
My advice: - Never sell. Ever. (Until retirement). [1] The natural extension of this is... always buy. Buy now. Buy. - Keep a pool of cash on the side (whatever you can afford) to be ready to capitalize on any "fire sale" of stocks. This should be about 10% of your portfolio as a very liquid non-volatile asset (cash). [1] Obviously life hits you hard sometimes and you HAVE to sell to cover unexpected bills. I am obvi…
Positive expected value is positive expected value. This works great, as long as you have plenty of bankroll and can ride out any losses.
As you say, this advice doesn't apply to people who might need the money.