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How to increase your luck surface area (2010)

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Re: How to increase your luck surface area (2010)

#61

Post by conformist »

stouset wrote: post #54
motohagiography wrote: post #31

Taleb talked about this with his recommendation to get exposure to randomness that has asymmetric upside, and is analogous to luck is preparedness meeting opportunity. What I like about the OP's model is it also explains the asymmetry of social media where people do very little at all and talk about is a lot because the kind of non-linear success we are aiming for is a function of exposure. When you have wealth of an…

Your observation about young people with four-figure net worths thinking it’s rational to gamble it all on options is pretty much this week’s equivalent of those living paycheck-to-paycheck “investing” in the lottery. The bigger problem is that this is rarely just a one-time decision to gamble. And repeatedly doing this is statistically pretty certain to lose you significant amounts of money—particularly when compare…

These are good points and the lottery analogy seems quite accurate. I think, there may be an additional macro-aspect to this: If you are a young person with a four-figure net worth, you should be able to leverage this to buy (non-financial) options that have a much higher expected payoff than hyped stock options. For example, being able to quit a job to apply for others, moving to another town, spending additional time and money on education or similar. These are all options that you haven't got without the four-figure net worth. The real tragedy is that these options seem to be becoming more expensive or scarcer. Many are still better than an iterated lottery, but the (perceived) decline in optionality may be worthy of some sympathy. (Completely agree on Vanguard.)

Re: How to increase your luck surface area (2010)

#62

Post by soared »

I really really dislike the idea that everything you do needs to be multiplied by networking. Not everything is entrepreneurship, not everyone is looking to meet people to accomplish x.

I had hoped this article was something unique, but one paragraph in and it’s more growth hacking nonsense.

Re: How to increase your luck surface area (2010)

#63

Post by postit »

I struggle a lot with advertising my work outside the company.

I'm the kind of engineer that will get anything done regardless of the tech (or people/process) complexity, and I always end up watching someone else in the team going to conferences to present my work.

Random reasons random, but mostly because my inner klout is way bigger than my outer persona.

Re: How to increase your luck surface area (2010)

#64

Post by dade_ »

Closi wrote: post #13
KineticLensman wrote: post #8

I'll stick with the proverbial Seneca: “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” Which is actually a generalization of the author's (relatively narrow) thesis where 'opportunity' depends primarily on the people that you meet and the 'preparation' is being passionate about something.

I think this is roughly the same thesis with different words - preparation = doing and telling = creating opportunities.

Except Seneca said this 2000 years ago and used far fewer words than this blog post.

Re: How to increase your luck surface area (2010)

#65

Post by nicbou »

analyst74 wrote: post #16
kharak wrote: post #11

Being passionate about something for a long time (not just a couple of hours or weeks) seems to be a rare quality. Too bad for those who lack it, as it seems to be a requirement for success in everything. There are so many posts that try to tell you how to get the most out of your passion, I haven't seen one that explains the origin of passion or whether it is possible to become passionate.

Opposite of passion is contentment, which is also very desirable for many. You just can't have both, because with a burning passion, comes a sense of imperfection and constant struggle to get better but never enough, or worse, fear of decay and irrelevance, an inevitable outcome as one ages.

You can be passionate and content.

There are plenty of passionate artists, athletes and engineers who don't care about going pro, getting famous or changing the world.

For example, I'm passionate about software development, but I make simple things that don't matter. I'm passionate about cooking, but only for myself and the occasional guest. I'm also passionate about the website I live from, but I don't worry much about its growth.

I like to build stuff, but I don't want an audience or its recognition. I don't want users nor money. I just do it because it's nice.

Re: How to increase your luck surface area (2010)

#66

Post by PartiallyTyped »

stouset wrote: post #54
motohagiography wrote: post #31

Taleb talked about this with his recommendation to get exposure to randomness that has asymmetric upside, and is analogous to luck is preparedness meeting opportunity. What I like about the OP's model is it also explains the asymmetry of social media where people do very little at all and talk about is a lot because the kind of non-linear success we are aiming for is a function of exposure. When you have wealth of an…

Your observation about young people with four-figure net worths thinking it’s rational to gamble it all on options is pretty much this week’s equivalent of those living paycheck-to-paycheck “investing” in the lottery. The bigger problem is that this is rarely just a one-time decision to gamble. And repeatedly doing this is statistically pretty certain to lose you significant amounts of money—particularly when compare…

Being a 4 digit net worth grad student in Europe, riding a few meme stocks just for a short-while has increased my 'wealth' and given me tremendous amount of financial freedom. I understand that the odds are against me, but really, the expectation even when accounting for variance, and adjusting for risk tolerance are a no brainer to me.

I made >40% of my net worth in the first 2 weeks of January alone, and with GME I have multiplied my net worth by (>tenfold). Yes I understand that these are 'extraordinary times', but accounting for everything. I have literally nothing to lose. I can fast for a week if I need to, I can walk instead of taking the metro. Whatever. I am not going to lose a lifestyle that I never had and I never had a safety net to begin with because being a 4 digit net worth student doesn't give you any safety net.

Keeping track of my bets even before getting into this, I was right more often than not, and I am aware of survivorship bias and confirmation bias. In the limit, it makes more sense to spend 4-5 hours per day learning about market analysis, observing trends close to me and making decisions about sectors/fields that I know about.

Re: How to increase your luck surface area (2010)

#67

Post by genuine_smiles »

motohagiography wrote: post #31

Taleb talked about this with his recommendation to get exposure to randomness that has asymmetric upside, and is analogous to luck is preparedness meeting opportunity. What I like about the OP's model is it also explains the asymmetry of social media where people do very little at all and talk about is a lot because the kind of non-linear success we are aiming for is a function of exposure. When you have wealth of an…

What’s better to invest in once you have 50k?

Re: How to increase your luck surface area (2010)

#68

Post by Judgmentality »

nicbou wrote: post #65
analyst74 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Opposite of passion is contentment, which is also very desirable for many. You just can't have both, because with a burning passion, comes a sense of imperfection and constant struggle to get better but never enough, or worse, fear of decay and irrelevance, an inevitable outcome as one ages.

You can be passionate and content. There are plenty of passionate artists, athletes and engineers who don't care about going pro, getting famous or changing the world. For example, I'm passionate about software development, but I make simple things that don't matter. I'm passionate about cooking, but only for myself and the occasional guest. I'm also passionate about the website I live from, but I don't worry much ab…

I think this is just a simple semantics distinction.

I believe what you mean by passion is interest, and what OP means by passion is drive. I think you're discussing slightly different things.

I don't believe it is possible to be driven and satisfied at the same time. But I believe it is possible to be interested and content simultaneously.

Re: How to increase your luck surface area (2010)

#69

Post by dehrmann »

motohagiography wrote: post #31

Taleb talked about this with his recommendation to get exposure to randomness that has asymmetric upside, and is analogous to luck is preparedness meeting opportunity. What I like about the OP's model is it also explains the asymmetry of social media where people do very little at all and talk about is a lot because the kind of non-linear success we are aiming for is a function of exposure. When you have wealth of an…

> the economy doesn't provide anything better to invest in for under $50k

What's wrong with index funds? Real estate isn't everything.

Re: How to increase your luck surface area (2010)

#70

Post by gwnwest21 »

punnerud wrote: post #47
motohagiography wrote: post #31

Taleb talked about this with his recommendation to get exposure to randomness that has asymmetric upside, and is analogous to luck is preparedness meeting opportunity. What I like about the OP's model is it also explains the asymmetry of social media where people do very little at all and talk about is a lot because the kind of non-linear success we are aiming for is a function of exposure. When you have wealth of an…

I love how Reddit (and HN) enable fast sharing, fact checking of information and lifting ideas. When it comes to increase luck surface I think Clubhouse maybe will become one of the most important platforms. GME case seems to exploit the possibility for “short attack” by flipping the table into a infinite price increase, because the hedge funds accidentally created more fake shares that there is shares in existence a…

Hedge Funds managers have infinite resources and are working with Data Firms to prevent this from getting out of control again. These firms will use AI to scout social media platforms chatter and report back in real time what stocks are gaining momentum with retail investors.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-looks-for-ways...

https://www.ft.com/content/04477ee8-0af2-4f0f-a331-298744489...

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