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Americans Don’t Know What Urban Collapse Looks Like

theatlantic.com

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Re: Americans Don’t Know What Urban Collapse Looks Like

#61

Post by JAlexoid »

nostrademons wrote: post #49
burntoutfire wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But for this to be the cause of collapse, you need to explain how cities can have high levels of crime, corruption, and decaying buildings and then recover back to lower levels of crime, corrupion, and decaying buildings. This sounds like a perspective of someone who's lived their entire life in the US. Meanwhile, here in Poland, you can have relatively large metro areas (Warsaw + suburbs is probably over 2 million…

I should probably say "large groups of disparate people". Ethnic homogeneity makes everything easier. American gun laws probably don't help either, but there are non-American cities - Sarajevo, South Africa, much of Europe after the Syrian migration crisis - that struggle with crime too, and there seems to be a correlation there.

That's severely overblown.

Re: Americans Don’t Know What Urban Collapse Looks Like

#62

Post by JAlexoid »

ashtonkem wrote: post #44
nostrademons wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crime, corruption and decaying buildings were much more prominent in NYC of the 1970s than NYC of today. Or Chicago in the 1960s than Chicago of today. Or Boston in the 1920s vs. Boston today. The problem with this explanation - even though it sounds reasonable - is that it lacks predictive power. There's always crime, corruption, and decay, because whenever large groups of people come together there's crime, corrupt…

Also, American cities on average continue to gain population, not lose them. Even cities that are derided as “decaying”, like NYC.

NYC is set to loose people and/or have a drop in median household income(the second bit is where it really hurts)

Re: Americans Don’t Know What Urban Collapse Looks Like

#63

Post by JAlexoid »

medium_burrito wrote: post #31
marcinzm wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>With increased crime, corruption, and decay, the taxpayers leave (NYC). Do you have numbers to back that up? Pre-COVID. Personal income tax numbers have increased until 2018 (last year I can find) which indicates that taxpayers were coming in rather than leaving.

I agree with the other commenter that it's a boiling point issue. Things looked ok at the surface but... - rising cost of living, propelled by foreign investment in housing, pricing out even upper middle class - more taxes - more crime, and less policing - shitty schools As soon as you don't need to be in the expensive city for work, it's like hmmm, why the hell am I putting up with this? People with kids may be slig…

If you think that a town of 200k can compete with NYC - you are deluded. People move to large cities for more than just the money* or the job.

You are aware that there are only two places in the world to have globally renowned theatre districts? NYC's Broadway and London's West End.

No periodic Osheaga can outdo music venues in Brooklyn.

There are things that stick. Things that would have to move. Things that seems "easily replicated", but are only possible in extremely densely populated areas.

PS: I just recently moved out of NYC to a town 1 hour north of NYC. And I hate NYC. And I still can see what is impossible without certain factors.

*Software Engineer in Bay area gets paid more, than in NYC.

Re: Americans Don’t Know What Urban Collapse Looks Like

#64

Post by ashtonkem »

JAlexoid wrote: post #62
ashtonkem wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, American cities on average continue to gain population, not lose them. Even cities that are derided as “decaying”, like NYC.

NYC is set to loose people and/or have a drop in median household income(the second bit is where it really hurts)

Chances are they’ll move to another city, and NY will regain that population sooner rather than later.

Meanwhile rural areas have been constantly and consistently depopulating for decades. My grandmother is buried in a graveyard in the middle of a soy field; the town that originally made that graveyard is just gone, and it happened within my lifetime.

Re: Americans Don’t Know What Urban Collapse Looks Like

#65

Post by JAlexoid »

ndiscussion wrote: post #21
marcinzm wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>With increased crime, corruption, and decay, the taxpayers leave (NYC). Do you have numbers to back that up? Pre-COVID. Personal income tax numbers have increased until 2018 (last year I can find) which indicates that taxpayers were coming in rather than leaving.

I believe these things come to a boiling point... covid has perhaps accelerated that boiling point in NYC's case. NYC was also kind of a bad example for me to use because actually, it's a really clean city. When I visited in 2016 I couldn't believe how much cleaner and safer it felt than my hometown (Portland Oregon). I went to all areas, manhattan, brooklyn, the bronx, harlem, queens, and I just didn't see the sad h…

There's plenty of sad human decay - it's just very compartmentalized.

Re: Americans Don’t Know What Urban Collapse Looks Like

#66

Post by JAlexoid »

imtringued wrote: post #20
waynesonfire wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kinda like when cities build roads but fail to budget for their maintenance costs? .. but keep building new roads.

That's a problem with suburbia. You need a lot of road per house. The tax money you receive doesn't cover maintenance. Even the worst city blocks bring in enough tax revenue to maintain their roads. https://youtu.be/VVUeqxXwCA0

TBH - NYC is really bad with road maintenance.

NYC should have had congestion zones and tolls on Manhattan long ago. Not to mention a lot less street parking.

Re: Americans Don’t Know What Urban Collapse Looks Like

#67

Post by JAlexoid »

throwawaysea wrote: post #43
Simulacra wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is San Francisco a special case, though? It's a one party government that tends to tilt towards the extreme in its decision making, with an extraordinarily wealthy class of citizens, and a very difficult homeless and drug population, all compounded in a small area. I'm old. I remember San Francisco of the 80s, prosperous, wild, open armed, and beautiful. Today it's a concrete jungle with terrible management.

Seattle is pretty much the same. It retained its old Seattle credentials until the mid 2000s and then it started a rapid change politically, maybe due to a tipping point in terms of California transplants or some other such trend. Now it is a one party city with extreme (far left) politics being normalized. The effects of that are apparent daily - despite ever increasing city and state budgets, urban blight is everyw…

I find it funny when NIMBYs are called far left. LOL!

Far left is literally against conservatism, that is the driving force behind NIMBYs.

Re: Americans Don’t Know What Urban Collapse Looks Like

#68

Post by JAlexoid »

Hadrianus wrote: post #46
imtringued wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Question, where would you poop if you were homeless?

Over a trash can, bury it in a hole in a park, carry a small bag with me to throw away, in a bucket, at a library or other public building, in a park toilet, at a Target.. Literally anywhere other than the public thoroughfare or someone’s stoop.

Except that the local "progressive" NIMBYs have prevented "a restroom being built in that new waterfront park". Then complained enough to bar you from going to that Target. Etc...

It's considerably harder in US to get to a publicly accessible toilet, than in many countries that I've lived in.

Re: Americans Don’t Know What Urban Collapse Looks Like

#69

Post by JAlexoid »

ashtonkem wrote: post #64
JAlexoid wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NYC is set to loose people and/or have a drop in median household income(the second bit is where it really hurts)

Chances are they’ll move to another city, and NY will regain that population sooner rather than later. Meanwhile rural areas have been constantly and consistently depopulating for decades. My grandmother is buried in a graveyard in the middle of a soy field; the town that originally made that graveyard is just gone , and it happened within my lifetime.

The issue isn't that NYC will not regain, but in what state it will be.

Lower income families cannot leave an urban center easily. Drop of median income is bad because the loss of a group of people that contribute a lot more tax money and provide demand for services. That means that an "exodus" of 400k (some are) middle class people will only marginally reduce the demands for infrastructure. That will inevitably lead to strain on infrastructure of NYC.

NYC infrastructure is the most expensive in the world. Construction of one mile of subway runs at $1bn. That is not even TBM bored deep tunnels.

Re: Americans Don’t Know What Urban Collapse Looks Like

#70

Post by ashtonkem »

JAlexoid wrote: post #69
ashtonkem wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chances are they’ll move to another city, and NY will regain that population sooner rather than later. Meanwhile rural areas have been constantly and consistently depopulating for decades. My grandmother is buried in a graveyard in the middle of a soy field; the town that originally made that graveyard is just gone , and it happened within my lifetime.

The issue isn't that NYC will not regain, but in what state it will be. Lower income families cannot leave an urban center easily. Drop of median income is bad because the loss of a group of people that contribute a lot more tax money and provide demand for services. That means that an "exodus" of 400k (some are) middle class people will only marginally reduce the demands for infrastructure. That will inevitably lead…

All fair points. But I’ll point out that NYC infrastructure costs are largely a matter of political policy. There’s no particular reason why NYC couldn’t construct for the same cost as say, Tokyo or Paris if they wanted to.
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