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Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught

arstechnica.com

61–70 of 410 posts

Re: Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught

#61

> On Wednesday Melvin said it had exited its bet against GameStop and repositioned its portfolio. The firm moved to reduce risk in its investments following a turbulent start to January when it lost 30 percent in the first three weeks. Melvin’s leverage ratio is at the lowest it has been since the firm’s founding in 2014, said a source familiar with the firm. The news of Melvin’s January performance was first reporte…

How up-to-date is that short interest data?

Re: Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught

#62
post #48
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You don't spend money on ads saying "we no longer have a financial stake in this stock" I don't think they did. The source of this meme seems to be a Twitter ad from CNBC that was teasing an interview with a quote to that effect. That's a CNBC ad selling their show, they don't take paid ads from their guests.

> they don't take paid ads from their guests. How do you know this?

They sell journalism under the NBC brand. Is this a serious question? If CNBC was issuing paid advertisement like that it would be a much, much bigger story than a spike in a small cap retail stock.

Re: Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught

#63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is somewhat important to describe how these people are not acting rationally or individually and how these internet groups can group together to have very powerful and unusual effects.

>not acting rationally Lots of participants understand what they are doing and are achieving their stated goals (causing chaos). There’s nothing internally inconsistent or irrational about the behaviour to the individuals. Maybe it’s irrational if you transpose your own form of rationality to others.

I'm sure there's some people who are just successfully aiming to cause chaos. But 3 of my closest friends are in on Gamestop now, and each of them expects they're going to exit at $1000+ and make bank. So in the absence of hard data (which I have no idea how we'd collect) I kinda have to assume that making money is a big motivating factor for people.

Re: Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught

#64
post #50
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should consider at least editing this post given that it has a massive inaccuracy in it, i.e. that Melvin Capital bought ads to communicate not having a position in GME. That was CNBC.

I'll double down for you and it will really melt you brain- they paid Ars in this article to say they have covered their shorts. To think hedge funds wouldnt do such a thing when so much is riding on this, is extremely naive.

With respect, you haven't thought this through. Given there is "so much riding on this", why do you think a hedge fund would concoct a nefarious, extremely uncertain scheme to get people to think they closed instead of actually closing?

You agree they're motivated by money, right? They would have lost literally all their money, even with the additional investment, if they were still in when GME soared to $400. They would also be aware of that fact.

Re: Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught

#65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The general assumption on WSB is that Melvin Capital is lying and that they haven't closed their positions. I haven't seen any evidence to suggest they've closed it, and have seen circumstantial evidence suggesting they have not. You don't spend money on ads saying "we no longer have a financial stake in this stock" unless you, you know, have a financial stake in this stock. Considering this is a hedge fund, I just a…

The way that WSB has latched onto Melvin as their enemy is to their detriment. It was never about killing Melvin capital, or at least, it shouldn't have been. It ought to have been about the ridiculous short interest on the stock, regardless of who was funding it. Whether or not Melvin specifically has covered their shorts is irrelevant to how the short interest as a percentage of float has changed in the past week.…

I think that post is representative of how only the market and time will actually flesh out this story. The GME holding party entrenches further because the graph is bad (Y Axis distortion) and the GME short party says the pressure has been alleviated.

Re: Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught

#66

How much evidence is there that the "reddit onslaught" actually moved the price, as opposed to them being the stalking horse for more sophisticated actors with more capital exercising a vanilla short squeeze strategy?

Yeah, Matt Levine pointed this out in an article last week... the total buy and sell numbers for ‘retail investors' was actually pretty well matched (meaning retails investors bought and sold roughly the same number of shares)

This is not a just simple “Redditors keep buying shares” story

Re: Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught

#67
post #42

It's really strange. Why would they openly announce that they have closed shorts and that they are sustaining damage so publicly? My theory is that they are not only doubling down but quadrupling down everytime the stock shoots up. Gamestop has no fundamentals going for it, take a look at its other competitors in the industry, they are all gone. Neither do cases for AMC (who themselves acknowledged and WARNED investo…

> My theory is that they are not only doubling down but quadrupling down everytime the stock shoots up. They would not have survived Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday if they doubled down once instead of closing out, let alone if they did it on every significant increase. Even if you cite the investment from Point72 and Citadel: that's a fraction of what they'd have needed to survive the stock going from $100 to $300+.

They could have. If they shorted again on tuesday at >300 they could have made a lot of money by covering the next day when the price dropped due to the buy restrictions. At one point in the aftermarket the stock even hit 500$ and the next day went back down to 190$. That is potwntially a lot of money for the right short positions.

Re: Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught

#68

How much evidence is there that the "reddit onslaught" actually moved the price, as opposed to them being the stalking horse for more sophisticated actors with more capital exercising a vanilla short squeeze strategy?

I don't know if you're right. But that definitely sounds like a good game plan for state to pretend to be on the side of the little guy, and do what they like to do...

Create a bigger, more sinister enemy...and you can have the crowds on your side.

Re: Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught

#69

How much evidence is there that the "reddit onslaught" actually moved the price, as opposed to them being the stalking horse for more sophisticated actors with more capital exercising a vanilla short squeeze strategy?

This has been my question as well. Especially when you overlay the charts for gme and amc and bb, they move almost identically. I really struggle to believe it's all gressroots. This entire thing was astroturfed if you ask me.

Re: Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught

#70

How much evidence is there that the "reddit onslaught" actually moved the price, as opposed to them being the stalking horse for more sophisticated actors with more capital exercising a vanilla short squeeze strategy?

Could you elaborate a bit on what you mean by this? I have seen similar comments elsewhere but don't really understand what is being suggested.

A strat that quant funds use are algorithms that look for movement in the market. When they noticed an uptick in gamestop they bought in. When they buy in the price goes up which signals to other algorithms to also buy in. Thus raising the price and causing a tsunami.
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