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Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught

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Re: Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught

#51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And the hedge funds making billions off that sentiment do as well of course, Citadel must be blushing at the runaway success of RH right now

Edit: This is probably wrong. The funny thing is that the money Citadel makes off of Robinhood is basically front running RH trades. If those trades are for GME, Citadel has to choose between: - getting their front running revenue while increasing the price and making things worse for shorts (which I'm sure Melvin still has, despite their PR) - foregoing their RH revenue to not exacerbate the situation for shorts Pic…

Citadel is not front running trades. This isn't how PFOF works. People say this over and over again, but it just shows that they have little to no understanding of how a market maker operates.

Which is fine, everyone is uninformed about some things. Except if you know nothing about something, you shouldn't post naive statements that you claim as factual, when they are in fact not.

Re: Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught

#52
post #16
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe so investors can evaluate the current status of their hedge fund without thinking there is some massive looming instability about to hit them?

Or, maybe they're lying to discourage more calls? In any case, their best strategy is to claim they're out of the short position so really them saying so is useless information.

What's not useless information is that they simply didn't have the AUM to survive GME going from $100 to $300. They either got out when they said they did, or they're gone.

Re: Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught

#53
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Likely just new shorts from a variety of places. I've seen plenty of people opening shorts with the expectations that WSB's play will blow in their face eventually.

Yeah - I mean, why wouldn't it attract a bunch more shorts that open their positions at the current highs? Wouldn't surprise me if Melvin hasn't really closed their position - but it wouldn't be irrational to think that /r/wallstreetbets will at SOME point in the future move on from gamestop to something else.

> why wouldn't it attract a bunch more shorts that open their positions at the current highs?

The cost to borrow shares for GME is currently astronomical, last I saw was like 50%

Re: Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught

#54

How much evidence is there that the "reddit onslaught" actually moved the price, as opposed to them being the stalking horse for more sophisticated actors with more capital exercising a vanilla short squeeze strategy?

My experience of reddit is you can get a "wildly successful" meme or post, yet rarely that translates into more than a few thousand dollars of cash being spent on anything.

All the "wildly successful" kickstarters and stuff seem to have commercial backers lined up to make the social media buzz effect appear bigger than it is.

I suspect the same happened here.

Re: Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught

#55

> On Wednesday Melvin said it had exited its bet against GameStop and repositioned its portfolio. The firm moved to reduce risk in its investments following a turbulent start to January when it lost 30 percent in the first three weeks. Melvin’s leverage ratio is at the lowest it has been since the firm’s founding in 2014, said a source familiar with the firm. The news of Melvin’s January performance was first reporte…

Have you looked at open interest for puts? How do you think that's hedged?

Re: Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does the Reddit part matter? It seems to be meta humour around completely risky but reasonable behaviour. You can explain pretty much everything about it in standard market terms. Mentioning the memes and crude humour is just getting into drama. (And completely optional)

It is somewhat important to describe how these people are not acting rationally or individually and how these internet groups can group together to have very powerful and unusual effects.

>not acting rationally

Lots of participants understand what they are doing and are achieving their stated goals (causing chaos). There’s nothing internally inconsistent or irrational about the behaviour to the individuals.

Maybe it’s irrational if you transpose your own form of rationality to others.

Re: Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught

#57

How much evidence is there that the "reddit onslaught" actually moved the price, as opposed to them being the stalking horse for more sophisticated actors with more capital exercising a vanilla short squeeze strategy?

Could you elaborate a bit on what you mean by this? I have seen similar comments elsewhere but don't really understand what is being suggested.

Re: Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught

#58
%53, so far. The problem with the short interest being %140 is that the notional value of shares to cover that extra %40 is in fact, infinite. It's literally everything those funds can sell, borrow, and get bailed out to cover their position.

My prediction last week was this has system wide implications, and I'm thinking 1. the Fed will intervene, leverage Robinhood's EULA, and buy out everyone's shares at a price that will be profitable but still piss everyone off. 2. the new U.S. administration will use this as leverage for some backburner, discredited radical regulations for things like a financial transaction tax or a tax on assets in custody, but only for retail investors and not their donors, 3. the admin will direct the IRS to prioritize making public examples of new traders who screw up their filings. And that's the optimistic view.

The alternative is contagion that takes down Citadel, and causes a lot of institutions to sell otherwise valuable stocks to cover knock-on effect positions, risking things like indexes and pension solvency.

Imo, this is a macro level liquidity crisis, and there are some other players who might use the moment as well. E.g. China could dump some of its massive U.S. treasury holdings, ostensibly to hedge dollar devaluation risk, but really it's seizing its moment to cause enough chaos to tip the U.S. into actual domestic chaos while it consolidates its position in Taiwan and Hong Kong.

Viewed this way, the Treasury and the administration doesn't really have a choice, assuming they can a) use Robinhood's EULA to sell everyone's shares to the Fed, and b) convince the Fed to provide that liquidity vehicle to unwind this execrably stupid trade.

Fanfic? Maybe, but I think the system level risk means the stakes are about opportunities to make moves that upset the global balance of power, and not just a domestic populist issue.

Re: Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught

#59
post #10

> On Wednesday Melvin said it had exited its bet against GameStop and repositioned its portfolio If they really had exited, why would they bother telling anyone? > A Melvin spokesperson declined to comment on the firm’s January performance Hmmmm. They won't talk about performance, but they're very keen to convince everyone they've exited their short position. This reads like yet another press release that all the maj…

> If they really had exited, why would they bother telling anyone? They have their own customers and reputation to maintain. They’re trying to let their customers know that the damage is done and they’re out. They’re trying to stop their customers from abandoning them.

...or they lied. You're picking one answer and I'm picking a different one, either are just as likely.

Re: Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught

#60

> On Wednesday Melvin said it had exited its bet against GameStop and repositioned its portfolio. The firm moved to reduce risk in its investments following a turbulent start to January when it lost 30 percent in the first three weeks. Melvin’s leverage ratio is at the lowest it has been since the firm’s founding in 2014, said a source familiar with the firm. The news of Melvin’s January performance was first reporte…

The general assumption on WSB is that Melvin Capital is lying and that they haven't closed their positions. I haven't seen any evidence to suggest they've closed it, and have seen circumstantial evidence suggesting they have not. You don't spend money on ads saying "we no longer have a financial stake in this stock" unless you, you know, have a financial stake in this stock. Considering this is a hedge fund, I just a…

> The general assumption on WSB is that Melvin Capital is lying

If a company issues a commercial press release that turns out to be a deliberate lie, doesn't that usually result in prison time for someone?

Were there ambiguities in the statement?

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