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The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

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Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#81

Post by herewegoagain2 »

croes wrote: post #37
__blockcipher__ wrote: post #11

SARS-CoV-2 is a zoonotic, (fairly) highly infectious endemic respiratory virus. Eradication is literally impossible, and even if we could wave a magic wand and simultaneously eradicate it from all humans on earth, you still need to worry about it jumping back over from any of the many animal species infected with it. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eradication_of_infectious_dise... : > The selection of infectious…

"who have essentially zero risk of COVID-19 mortality." With current virus, that could change with each mutation.

A lot of things COULD happen. For example, a meteor could hit the earth and wipe out all life. Therefore we should pour ALL resources into space exploration, not medicine.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#82

Post by gridspy »

As a citizen of New Zealand I believe a short, sharp lock-down combined with test & contact trace is the only route to zero.

I think that this option is far far better than being in "half measures" restrictions for very long periods of time.

When a country announces their lock-down measures I feel excited for their populace that they might finally be heading to zero.

Then I read the holes in the measures:

- Resturants open, even if only for takeout.

- People mixing bubbles with friends

- Working from an office when WFH is possible

- Anything beyond food, health and utilities being considered "essential" and allowed

- Lack of financial support so it is not financially feasible to take public health measures (stay home, feed family, get tested, get healthcare).

I can't wait for other countries to simply copy the New Zealand quarantine rules and institute an Alert level 4 lockdown, not some half-hearted level 3 / 2 ripoff.

Ask for level 4: https://covid19.govt.nz/assets/resources/tables/COVID-19-ale...

When all the citizens are in this together, when they all see the shared sacrifice and they have the means to actually take a lock-down together ... it's a huge weight off. It would only take 6 weeks of true level 4 to transform the infection rate of any nation - the virus dies out if it cannot spread.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#83

Post by freeone3000 »

__blockcipher__ wrote: post #32
kiba wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. If it means I can actually go to the gym and workout, meet my friends, etc. I am tired of wearing the god damn masks, having to worry about my elderly parents, Are you tired of the god damn pandemic? I know I am. Because we already have no freedom.

Ethics of mandates aside, there’s no strong evidence that universal cloth masking in a community setting reduces transmissions, and many theoretical mechanisms by which they could worsen transmission (increased aerosol generation, deeper breaths to maintain o2 homeostasis leading to more absolute aerosols, improper handling->contamination, altered social behavior, having to speak louder or closer). So, I would argue…

Schools are a huge transmission vector for every communicable disease. Gathering a bunch of people from different households causes diseases to jump between households. It doesn't matter if the kids aren't harmed, it's communicating the disease through the population.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#84

Post by thaumaturgy »

baxtr wrote: post #27
jensgrud wrote: post #17

Definitely a report we did not want to hear. Just the the record though, the author is factually wrong about Denmark being one of the jurisdictions that "chose not to stamp out this virus and blithely tolerated high infection rates" and is probably referring to Sweden - see https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-nor... . We actually wiped out an entire industry of mink farming in the name of stoppin…

He is also factually wrong on at least one other thing: “He finds it astonishing that COVID-19 has boosted its infectiousness by 30 to 50 per cent over previous strains by doing what viruses do: evolve, mutate and adapt for more effective reproduction.” The UK strain seems to be 25% more infectious. It’s still bad but less than mentioned. EDIT: source is the latest Drosten podcast, where he referenced to some new evi…

The article leads with B117 but B.1.351, the South African variant, is approximately 50% more contagious. Probably just a minor mix-up on the author's part.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#85

Post by mkl »

bumbada wrote: post #71

Something must be said: It is too late. The New Zealand or Taiwan model works because you don't let the virus enter in the first place. Also New Zealand and Australia are in Summer right now. Just 30 seconds of Australia sun radiation now will kill(inactivate) any virus on any surface. Temperature will dry the membrane of any COVID virus that remains on the shadow. People immune system is much stronger in Summer, and…

Australia did "let" it enter, and had worse per capita infection rates than the UK for a while, and still got control of it and eliminated it. I don't think it's too late, but I (in NZ) think other countries have done pretty soft and ineffective "lockdowns".

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#86

Post by baxtr »

threeseed wrote: post #67
baxtr wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes I agree. Canada has a long border but just with one country. So think it’s in a good position. It’s way more difficult for a European country for example.

It's not that difficult for most European countries. People are going to be crossing borders at relatively few and well understood locations. And they could've simply imposed large fines for anyone who tried to sneak through.

You obviously don’t live in mainland Europe. I can easily cross borders in a small village, on a field, through a forest. There are no fences. Sometimes you don’t even have a line.

It’s a bit like saying New York should close its borders with Pennsylvania

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#87

Post by T-A »

jansan wrote: post #29
EdwardDiego wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You miss the point - a virus with a 1% death rate of those infected, that mutates into a virus 50% more transmissible, with a 1% death rate of those infected, is obviously likely to kill more people.

If I look a the infection numbers of South Africa and UK, I completely fail to see how there variants are more infectious. Also, in Brazil, where life seems to go on as usual, there is no exponential growth of cases. Do you have any numbers that prove that the new strains are actually spreading faster in society?

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#88

Post by KineticLensman »

gridspy wrote: post #54
baxtr wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, agreed. It’s embarrassing for the UK... my point was that there is no example of a western, liberal country not being an island that was able to reach zero Covid. It’s just way easier as an island state.

New Zealand is about as large as Europe. Larger than the UK. https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2019/08/map-how-n...

But not a major transit hub, miles from anywhere, low density population

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#89

Post by icelancer »

gridspy wrote: post #82

As a citizen of New Zealand I believe a short, sharp lock-down combined with test & contact trace is the only route to zero. I think that this option is far far better than being in "half measures" restrictions for very long periods of time. When a country announces their lock-down measures I feel excited for their populace that they might finally be heading to zero. Then I read the holes in the measures: - Resturant…

>> I can't wait for other countries to simply copy the New Zealand quarantine rules

When the United States of America can relocate to an island and near-permanently ban travel into the country like NZ has, we'll do that, I guess.

EDIT: Ah yes, HN the libertarian paradise unless it's about COVID, then the recommendations are non-practical authoritarian measures and citing island nation success and hurling downvotes. Keep them coming.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#90

Post by mkl »

gridspy wrote: post #82

As a citizen of New Zealand I believe a short, sharp lock-down combined with test & contact trace is the only route to zero. I think that this option is far far better than being in "half measures" restrictions for very long periods of time. When a country announces their lock-down measures I feel excited for their populace that they might finally be heading to zero. Then I read the holes in the measures: - Resturant…

Yes, the holes in the "lockdowns" elsewhere are kind of unbelievable. If the lockdown is hard enough, and the financial support is there for those who need it, then it can be short and effective.
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