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The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

thetyee.ca

11–20 of 248 posts

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#11
SARS-CoV-2 is a zoonotic, (fairly) highly infectious endemic respiratory virus. Eradication is literally impossible, and even if we could wave a magic wand and simultaneously eradicate it from all humans on earth, you still need to worry about it jumping back over from any of the many animal species infected with it.

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eradication_of_infectious_dise...:

> The selection of infectious diseases for eradication is based on rigorous criteria, as both biological and technical features determine whether a pathogenic organism is (at least potentially) eradicable. The targeted organism must not have a non-human reservoir (or, in the case of animal diseases, the infection reservoir must be an easily identifiable species, as in the case of rinderpest), and/or amplify in the environment. This implies that sufficient information on the life cycle and transmission dynamics is available at the time an eradication initiative is programmed. An efficient and practical intervention (such as a vaccine or antibiotic) must be available to interrupt transmission of the infective agent. Studies of measles in the pre-vaccination era led to the concept of the critical community size, the size of the population below which a pathogen ceases to circulate.[2] The use of vaccination programs before the introduction of an eradication campaign can reduce the susceptible population. The disease to be eradicated should be clearly identifiable, and an accurate diagnostic tool should exist. Economic considerations, as well as societal and political support and commitment, are other crucial factors that determine eradication feasibility.[3][4]

SARS-CoV-2 satisfies none of these pre-conditions (except for having a vaccine now). It is not only unrealistic but actively delusional/deleterious to argue for “COVID zero”. Don’t fall for it.

Remember herd immunity doesn’t mean eradication. The virus stays endemic. Which is fine; over the long run the set of all COVID-19-naive individuals becomes dominated by the very young (infants/toddlers), who have essentially zero risk of COVID-19 mortality.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#12
China and Vietnam get the virus under control by using centralised quarantines.

I wonder how many people supporting the sentiments of this article would be ok with someone arriving at their doorstep, taking you to a prison basically whether you agree or not, and quaranteening you there for at least 10 days with other covid people. Perhaps they also take your family too, in case they are also infected. Are you willing to pay that price?

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#13
post #9
post #5

how the efficacy of vaccines changes with mutating strains of the virus is I think still out in the open, but I'll second the general tone of the article. Complacency is dangerous. Already are there people who treat the vaccinations themselves as panacea despite the fact that in some countries like the US almost half of all frontline workers aren't even willing to be vaccinated.[1] The pandemic will not magically end…

or it'll turn into just another cold/flu that we get used too and ignore. How many thousands die a year from the flu and it was all but ignored?

I don’t know but before COVID I used to get a flu shot each year. This year wasn’t as important as 1) restrictions also decimated the flu, 2) my country used up all the shots it ordered (which never happens) before I had time to get one myself.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#14
post #12

China and Vietnam get the virus under control by using centralised quarantines. I wonder how many people supporting the sentiments of this article would be ok with someone arriving at their doorstep, taking you to a prison basically whether you agree or not, and quaranteening you there for at least 10 days with other covid people. Perhaps they also take your family too, in case they are also infected. Are you willing…

This and all other countries mentioned are Islands (Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan)

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#15
post #12

China and Vietnam get the virus under control by using centralised quarantines. I wonder how many people supporting the sentiments of this article would be ok with someone arriving at their doorstep, taking you to a prison basically whether you agree or not, and quaranteening you there for at least 10 days with other covid people. Perhaps they also take your family too, in case they are also infected. Are you willing…

This is cherry picking as Taiwan and New Zealand are also on the list.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#16
post #12

China and Vietnam get the virus under control by using centralised quarantines. I wonder how many people supporting the sentiments of this article would be ok with someone arriving at their doorstep, taking you to a prison basically whether you agree or not, and quaranteening you there for at least 10 days with other covid people. Perhaps they also take your family too, in case they are also infected. Are you willing…

Yes. If it means I can actually go to the gym and workout, meet my friends, etc.

I am tired of wearing the god damn masks, having to worry about my elderly parents,

Are you tired of the god damn pandemic? I know I am. Because we already have no freedom.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#17
Definitely a report we did not want to hear. Just the the record though, the author is factually wrong about Denmark being one of the jurisdictions that "chose not to stamp out this virus and blithely tolerated high infection rates" and is probably referring to Sweden - see https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-nor....

We actually wiped out an entire industry of mink farming in the name of stopping the spread of mutations, but that is a topic for an other thread (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/health/covid-mink-mutatio...).

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#18
post #2

It won't happen, because there's no political incentive to do so. The citizens of these beleaguered countries seem quite happy with the government management thus far[1]. I honestly don't know how anyone can look at the UK response thus far and think - more of that please! [1] https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1355606835873669126

I agree, but it also doesn't help when the Labour opposition have had a string of weak opposition leaders.

Even Keir Starmer seems content to sit back and only critise the Government's response the day or days after a grim milestone/but of news.

Why isn't he constantly saying that the UK should totally shut their borders, for example? He should be saying this and nothing else, and directing the rest of Labour to do the same. That's how an effective opposition works.

Instead he generally chooses silence.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#19
post #12

China and Vietnam get the virus under control by using centralised quarantines. I wonder how many people supporting the sentiments of this article would be ok with someone arriving at their doorstep, taking you to a prison basically whether you agree or not, and quaranteening you there for at least 10 days with other covid people. Perhaps they also take your family too, in case they are also infected. Are you willing…

This is cherry picking as Taiwan and New Zealand are also on the list.

Until they open their borders.

Re: The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

#20
Funny he puts more faith in Astrazeneca vaccin. True it's logistics are easier. But it's efficacy is not... Worse given the higher transmission rates of the new strains it in itself might not be sufficient to prevent further spread. Higher R0 requires higher efficacy to keep R below 1.
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