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Once we can see them, it’s too late

scottaaronson.com

41–50 of 114 posts

Re: Once we can see them, it’s too late

#41

How a civilization would expand at the speed of light? Unless it lives directly on the fabric of space or something like that, matter is discrete in the universe. You settle on planets that are not everywhere, or in space stations built with Oort cloud or asteroid belts materials, but it takes time to settle and expand in each new ground you get. You are not talking about the speed of light anymore there. Of course,…

Think “matter scanner/printer”. Scan an object, at atomic & energy vector level. Transmit that information to a destination’s printer. Expansion is then indeed at speed of light, capped only by need to physically move a small “seed” printer (rapid transport may have enormous energy cost, but that’s all that needs moving; everything else is just data). Having seen tech go from digital imaging to 3D organ printing in a…

But first you have to deliver the printer to the destination somehow.

Re: Once we can see them, it’s too late

#42
The ideas discussed in his post, especially the idea of rapidly expanding spheres of civilizations consuming all resources in their path, were beautifully explored in Stephen Baxter's sci-fi book, Manifold: Space (a spin-off of his earlier book, Manifold: Time, which is also excellent). In his book, alien intelligences are common; once they become sufficiently advanced, their civilizations tend to rapidly expand and consume all available resources, often to the detriment of other civilizations in their path. This pattern leads to some interesting phenomena: first, while the night sky might seem quiet at first, once we do encounter aliens, we tend to see their signals across many star systems in rapid succession. The reason is pretty obvious: there is only a brief period of time when we are on the surface of a sphere - a few years after our first observations of aliens, we are engulfed within their sphere and observe their signals from all over our stellar neighborhood. Another idea he plays with is the idea of "refugee" species, who attempt to flee oncoming spheres by evacuating ahead of their path instead of being consumed. Actually, he pushes this idea even further: in the book, our solar system was already engulfed in a few spheres millions of years ago. He suggests that this why Venus is such a hellscape: the aliens came, took the resources they wanted, and left behind a polluted mess. In the case of Venus, they left lots of greenhouse gases behind as the result of some chemical process used to extract resources; as a result, Venus quickly became the warmest planet in the solar system. It's a fun twist on the Fermi paradox: signs of aliens are actually all around us, we are just too dumb to notice them.

Another interesting idea he explores a bit is "ownership" of resources. Do the resource-rich asteroids in our solar system really belong to us? Or are they available to any alien race who happens to pass through? In the book, we first notice aliens by observing unexplainable infrared radiation from the asteroid belt (later revealed to be thermal emissions from their resource extraction). He suggests that these aliens will potentially crowd out humans; even if they are not overtly hostile, they could gobble up all the resources we would have used to expand our civilization.

Highly recommend this book.

Re: Once we can see them, it’s too late

#43
Notice that, in Robin’s scenario, the present epoch of the universe is extremely special: it’s when civilizations are just forming, when perhaps a few of them will achieve technological liftoff, but before one or more of the civilizations has remade the whole of creation for its own purposes. Now is the time when the early intelligent beings like us can still look out and see quadrillions of stars shining to no apparent purpose, just wasting all that nuclear fuel in a near-empty cosmos, waiting for someone to come along and put the energy to good use.

This presumes that The Most Technologically Advanced Civilization sees virgin nature as nothing but raw material waiting to become something useful. That's possible, but probable? I think that it's likely that diminishing marginal utility still holds even for TMTAC, and therefore they are disinclined to convert all the universe's visible matter and energy into Dyson swarms of Space Product.

My favorite (not particularly testable) solution to the Fermi paradox is that TMTAC originated shortly after the first heavy elements and planets formed. It became space faring and expanded throughout the visible universe before our solar system formed. Its agents have been lurking in our solar system since before life first appeared here. Having long ago achieved immortality and technological supremacy, there's no motivation for plundering or trading with terrestrial creatures. They silently observe like space faring bird watchers. They'll intervene if/when we start to approach the capabilities of TMTAC, particularly if we show destructive paperclip-maximizer inclinations toward converting the universe into Space Product.

To borrow some terminology from Nick Bostrom's Superintelligence book, it's possible that the universe has been colonized by a singleton civilization -- the first one to become star faring. But it's not particularly chatty or inclined to let potentially competing star faring civilizations expand.

Re: Once we can see them, it’s too late

#44

It seems like the argument gets a lot less interesting if the most-expanding interstellar civilizations don't spread at anywhere near the speed of light? It's easy to think of reasons why this might be the case. There is acceleration, deceleration, and replication time, which seems like it would be substantial for any civilization that doesn't want to put most of its resources into replicating as fast as possible.

Ah, the classic mistake in a game of "Risk"; expanding as fast as you possibly can, leaving too few resources (troops) at your border to prevent a rapid collapse. If a fast-as-you-can civilization meets a slowly-expanding civilization, it is not at all clear to me that the former would prevail.

Re: Once we can see them, it’s too late

#45
post #31

Huh? > Only when the sphere’s thin outer shell had reached the earth—perhaps carrying radio signals from the extraterrestrials’ early history, before their rapid expansion started. By that point, though, the expanding sphere itself would be nearly upon us! Wouldn't the problematic portion of the sphere be, by definition, millions of years away from us? Given that radio waves travel at the speed of light, and the alie…

The first radio transmission by humans was made in 1895. It took another 74 years for humans to land on the moon. It would be disappointing if our augmented and/or artificial descendants really needed millions more years to reach beyond the solar system.

Re: Once we can see them, it’s too late

#46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no alternative to working with the data you have. But believing that you understand the data when there are huge glaring inconsistencies in your understanding is... naive.

I guess I missed the part where this was proclaimed to be Truth.

Yeah fair enough I didn't specifically point out the part I was responding to.

He says there are only 3 possibilities (the part starting with "then either" 1) ... 2) ... 3) ...

But that's ignoring category 4) which is that we have only a fraction of a fraction of a grain of sand of the real data, and might be a bit early to come to conclusions.

So not to say #3 is wrong, and heck it could very well be more probably than #1 and #2, but I wouldn't bet the house yet when we don't know if there's an option #4 - #4,000,000,000,000 because we haven't even observed data from dimensions we don't even know exist it.

Re: Once we can see them, it’s too late

#47
post #18

This kind of assumes that a “maxed out” civilization can expand at speed of light, but I don’t think it is given. It may very well be that meaningfully massive transport cannot exceed even a small fraction of c . After all, propulsion has to make energetic sense. 1. There is energy to get to speed 2. Mass of fuel to decelerate (and you have to accelerate that fuel in the beginning!) 3. Highly blue shifted CMB (that a…

In theory you can manipulate atoms and molecules at a distance with light.

So you can use a laser beam to construct a 3D printer at a distance.

Rinse and repeat, and this is asymptotically expanding at c.

Re: Once we can see them, it’s too late

#50
post #45
post #31

Huh? > Only when the sphere’s thin outer shell had reached the earth—perhaps carrying radio signals from the extraterrestrials’ early history, before their rapid expansion started. By that point, though, the expanding sphere itself would be nearly upon us! Wouldn't the problematic portion of the sphere be, by definition, millions of years away from us? Given that radio waves travel at the speed of light, and the alie…

The first radio transmission by humans was made in 1895. It took another 74 years for humans to land on the moon. It would be disappointing if our augmented and/or artificial descendants really needed millions more years to reach beyond the solar system.

Right, but that was sparse and unlikely to be detected, and the author is talking about the portions of the sphere which travel at near speed of light catching up to earth. If human progress is measured on the scale of reaching near-speed-of-light travel, it is easy to imagine being thousands if not millions of years off.
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