Europe's Vaccine Disaster • Hacker News Board

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#331

Post by Udik » Sat, Jan 30, 2021, 1:34 PM UTC

HugoDaniel wrote: post #281

true_religion wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the case of health care, it’s apt because the federal government cannot force states to take actions. They can only issue guidelines.

Still there are a lot of variables to consider: production, distribution, shares, access, storage, etc... In comparison to USA states, the European countries are a real mess: lots of small autonomous areas, language barriers everywhere (with some places only speaking particular dialects), hospital networks and management with wild variations (with a crude mix of private / public / semi-private-public / church / volun…

European countries are not (just) states, they're sovereign nations. And that's the big issue of the EU. The whole system is organised in such a way that each nation can retain most of its power, which is almost always greater than that of the EU institutions.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#332

Post by tsimionescu » Sat, Jan 30, 2021, 1:38 PM UTC

yyyk wrote: post #296

beagle3 wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please look at the graphs and data, not the headlines. Nothing magical happens past day 12 from the first vaccine in the Pfizer paper, or day 18 in this paper. Seriously. Look at it. Yes, ynetnews is ynet/yediot. Their reporting of covid is exactly parroting the government with no criticism whatsoever so far. I’m not antivax, I’m provad. 50% is pretty damn good for a first attempt. But everything has become so politi…

I'm not referring to the Pfizer research, I'm referring to the Maccabi paper. The data is explicitly for the first dose and not the second. The paper also mentions the effect starts from day 18, not beforehand - maybe you should read it again. What Maccabi did publish on the second dose, it was in a much more encouraging note. Granted, not a peer reviewed paper, that would be difficult given lack of time. Claiming Ye…

The main point that beagle3 makes is that the Pfizer study actually shows ~89% efficacy starting 12 days after the first dose, which improves to ~90% immediately after the 2nd dose (day 21) and ~95% 7 days later (day 28).

The Maccabi study was designed with this comparison in mind: they look at efficacy in days 1-12 and 13-24 after the first dose. They are mainly interested in comparing the Pfizer results for days 13-21 (89% efficacy) with real-world data. They show that the real world data is actually showing only ~50% protection in days 13-21, compared to 89% in the Pfizer data for the same period. This is somewhat disheartening.

HOWEVER, the Maccabi paper is not measuring the same thing as the Pfizer study. The Pfizer study only looked at symptomatic infections (Covid19 symptoms + positive PCR for SARS-CoV-2), while the Maccabi paper is also including asymptomatic infections.

Neither study includes sufficient data to accurately compare with the other one - the Pfizer study did not do PCR tests on anyone who didn't show symptoms, so we don't know how many asymptomatic infections they had exra; and the Maccabi study didn't record symptom information, so we don't know what percentage of those infected were symptomatic.

All of these numbers and facts are explicitly mentioned in the Maccabi study, it's not me reading into the data on my own.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#333

Post by estaseuropano » Sat, Jan 30, 2021, 1:39 PM UTC

freeflight wrote: post #101

robotmay wrote: post #10

From what I've gathered (unfortunately mostly on Reddit, before this article), Ursula von der Leyen wasn't exactly fondly thought of in Germany before this and somehow keeps managing to fail upwards. Is that accurate? The utterly bonkers u-turn today was a bit of a shocker. For those that haven't seen the news, the European Commission managed to say they were effectively going to establish border controls between the…

Leyen failing upwards is a pretty accurate description of her political career in Germany. She was never popular, one of her first "big ideas", as the head of the ministry for families, was to introduce DNS Internet-censorship against child pornography, which ultimately failed due to the public backlash. Like many other German career politicians, her doctors dissertation was found to be partly plagiarized. Her change…

She is a product of the CDU - which promotes based on internal networks, not quality results. I would say she's not one of the worst politicians - everyone with that length in public life has a few scandals. I haven't forgiven her for her censorship laws, but the other 'scandals' seem rather be a matter of hubris (often confused with 'vision'). In other countries that's a normal expectation - new policies such as on childcare will have some birthing problems - but in germany politicians usually have waited for a solid plan before they announce big measures.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#334

Post by Macha » Sat, Jan 30, 2021, 1:40 PM UTC

slim wrote: post #314

foepys wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US does currently not allow COVID-19 vaccine exports. Pfizer's plants are only manufacturing for the US while the EU plants are producing for the EU, Isreal, Canada, UK, etc.

coul EU ban vaccine export?

They tried a retaliatory ban against the UK yesterday over the AstraZeneca situation (vaccines in EU plants were exported to the UK last month because the UK were readier to rollout sooner, the UK is not allowing exports from UK plants in return, leaving the EU with a shortfall on vaccines), but because of the way it involved the Northern Ireland border rules agreed in brexit they faced strong opposition from Ireland, also an EU member and I think they've backed down for now

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#335

Post by helij » Sat, Jan 30, 2021, 1:41 PM UTC

MrRiddle wrote: post #12

jacquesm wrote: post #5

It's not just a vaccine disaster, it is a COVID disaster. The response to COVID in most of the developed world was a completely fuck up. We are still learning lessons that should have been learned a year ago, and there are still people everywhere - here too - that believe the best way to tackle a crisis of this magnitude is to stick your head in the sand and to pretend it isn't happening. I've definitely lost the ill…

Meh, I’m not convinced it’s such a disaster it’s being portayed. Serbia is/was heavily hit by Covid, yet only 12% more people died in 2020 than 5 year average before that. Again, meh.

Serbia is actually doing pretty well. Both in controlling Covid and vaccination.

Take a look at their cases and deaths. Unlike many countries in Serbia you are actually recommended to visit a doctor when you have any signs of Covid and not wait for severe symptoms. They established separate small Covid centres. Take a closer look at how they are handling this. Pretty interesting.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#336

Post by gridder » Sat, Jan 30, 2021, 1:43 PM UTC

estaseuropano wrote: post #325

deathgrips wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Covid is not nearly as high on the priority list for many third world countries as it is for the US. Here covid shuts down everything. In many African countries it is an order of magnitude less impactful than malaria.

There's less testing, less reporting and much less transparency and awareness. Doesn't mean there's less infection or less dying.

There probably is (less infection) due to the more broad vaccines they receive compared to developed countries, which as a second effect create a little more broad immunity.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#337

Post by estaseuropano » Sat, Jan 30, 2021, 1:45 PM UTC

cosmodisk wrote: post #26

robotmay wrote: post #10

From what I've gathered (unfortunately mostly on Reddit, before this article), Ursula von der Leyen wasn't exactly fondly thought of in Germany before this and somehow keeps managing to fail upwards. Is that accurate? The utterly bonkers u-turn today was a bit of a shocker. For those that haven't seen the news, the European Commission managed to say they were effectively going to establish border controls between the…

I'm also pro-EU,remainer,etc. The problem is that the EU is the political graveyard, because countries send the most absurd people there. Not all of them,of course,but a lot. EU works when things are going slow and because of the sheer economical scale and power, everybody takes it serious when it comes to negotiations. But the EC isn't a bunch of experts on rapid situations. It's exactly the same when a French civil…

The institutional design of the EU is unique in its setup as a supranational entity - it's neither an international organisation nor a state, it's something in between. Usually it mainly acts on 'market stuff' and the institutional structures are designed for careful compromise finding, especially to balance out any excess weight of the big countries. But since 2005 or so it has been pushed more and more in the geopolitical and criss-reaction realm where these careful but slow processes struggle. The UK gov can take an important spending decision on its own authority (or at most involving the commons and lords) but where it doesn't have the ultimate authority itself (e.g. some trade deals) the EU has to get agreement from the European parliament and 27 national governments.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#338

Post by libertine » Sat, Jan 30, 2021, 1:47 PM UTC

DrBazza wrote: post #311

libertine wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Approval doesn't matter when AZ has to build stock to meet deadlines. Basically they weren't building stock to fulfill UK orders, from EU based production. It takes months to build stock, but they were flushing that stock to UK.

> Approval doesn't matter when AZ has to build stock to meet deadlines. Basically they weren't building stock to fulfill UK orders, from EU based production. Vaccine delivery, like pretty much everything else, is just-in-time delivery. They haven't been building stocks. They've been manufacturing vaccines and shipping them straight out as they have signed contracts with many other countries other than the UK. Demand…

>Vaccine delivery, like pretty much everything else, is just-in-time delivery. They haven't been building stocks. They've been manufacturing vaccines and shipping them straight out as they have signed contracts with many other countries other than the UK. Demand is outstripping supply.

Vaccine production started before any country gave any approval, it's well documented that it started in 5th JUNE 2020, so I don't quite get what you're saying. If it took Europe 4 more weeks to approve a vaccine all the stock produced until that point should have been flushed to countries who approved it before, even though the production started way before anyone approved - so they take advantage of stock build up, but Europe doesn't because?

>The EU's argument, which is well documented in the press, is that they've promised about 300 million Euros to AZ to build up capacity, only a small amount of which they've paid AZ. It is also well documented that it takes time to get a vaccine manufacturing plant working at close to 100% yield, something even the UK plant hasn't achieved. It's simply the case that the EU should have agreed and paid sooner so that AZ could have invested that money in the EU plants sooner. All of this is covered in the 'best reasonable efforts' parts of the contract.

Again, something doesn't add up - it's well documented that it was EUROPEAN factories in the Netherlands and Germany that produced the first batches of AZ vaccines for the UK. So even before UK has any production capacity they are already taking advantage of Europe capacity of production financed by EU.

Basically the UK took advantage of EU capacity, and EU didn't get anything out of their investment? And now that UK has some capacity, all of it will be for UK, and EU should keep investing to make vaccines for UK and the rest of the world, while AZ is failing to fulfill orders.

This is weird, no?

>Evidence? As far as I can see in the press, the AZ doses in the UK are coming from the AZ manufacturing plants in the UK, and it is vdL / the EU that is demanding that AZ doses in the UK are diverted to the EU to make up the current shortfall in EU manufacturing.

It's well documented in the media, quote:

"Ian McCubbin, the manufacturing lead for the UK's Vaccine Taskforce said that the “vast majority” of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine will be manufactured in the UK.

AstraZeneca also has some plants in Europe, with sites in Germany and the Netherlands producing the jab - these were the first to be rolled out in the UK."

Source: https://www.business-live.co.uk/manufacturing/uk-factories-m...

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#339

Post by estaseuropano » Sat, Jan 30, 2021, 1:49 PM UTC

petre wrote: post #231

pelasaco wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

thats true. At least in Germany, you are just sent to the EU Parlament if you re not performing well in the country level.

Except von der Leyen was sent in as head of the Comission, a position which is essentially the Prime Minister of the EU. The PM's or the head of the Comission's job is to get sh*t done, as opposed to bragging about it and passing the responsability and the blame onto others. Sorry to say but BJ is way better in this regard. He has delivered Brexit and the UK is in a much better position regarding vaccinations.

Yes Legen is a bit like an EU prime minister, but she doesn't have the same prerogatives. The EU has the ultimate authority only on a narrow number of economic issues, but e.g. on borders and health it needs to get the agreement of 27 goverents to act.

The EU is a compromise machine designed to manage the expectations and needs of 27 countries, not a presidential system where a Trump or Putin can sign executive decisions changing laws with the stroke of a pen. So Johnson or Trump as heads of the commission would likely manage to do better publicity-wise but I doubt they could get much faster results.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#340

Post by dd_roger » Sat, Jan 30, 2021, 1:49 PM UTC

What's most hilarious about this situation is that the EU getting cheaper vaccines than the UK was advertised as a major "Aha you shouldn't have left, see?" a month ago, but now the UK has already vaccinated almost as many people as the entire EU.

Both the EU and its member countries fucked up so badly there aren't words strong enough to describe it. Reminds me of last spring when EU countries were blocking exports of medical supplies to eachothers. The EU appears weaker than ever with the corona crisis ; political cohesion between countries is low, economics are bad, and there's going to be a lot of resentment among the population.