Earlier quoted context omitted.
A lot of little guys are gonna be left holding the bag at the end, though. The stock was probably overvalued at $10. It's definitely overvalued at $400.
People were shorting this stock when it was an order of magnitude less expensive. Isn't it an even more attractive short target now?
Reddit's GameStop, AMC surge is the new Occupy movement
231–240 of 281 posts
Re: Reddit's GameStop, AMC surge is the new Occupy movement
#232They're talking about Occupy like it was a bad thing.
Re: Reddit's GameStop, AMC surge is the new Occupy movement
#233Earlier quoted context omitted.
Events like these make it clear why the vast majority of Wall Street practices are banned in Islam (including shorting). It's a terrible predatory practice that is not just gambling, but also creating artificial risk that does not correspond to the value being created from such transactions. This can easily collapse the entire market as we already saw in 2008 and many times before. The sooner we prohibit these terrib…
I am under the impression that Islam technically bans loans. So one would have to do an investment instead of a loan with interest. Do you know if I have this right?
Re: Reddit's GameStop, AMC surge is the new Occupy movement
#234Good. I'm tired of fake Economics where the value of a company or the product is not made from the real value of it, while some yuppies get rich in the proccess. The more they cry, the better. Hope is collapses so "middle" and low class workers can get fair prices of what they earn by doing actual hard work. Because this will create a good crash, dont fool about it. It will harm everyone, but at least this Century wi…
I also don't care about a hedge fund losing out but Id hardly call the current value of Gamestop to be "real" Economics. And for the few /r/wsb guys and girls making a killing there are a lot more late comers who will lose big, and can't afford to.
Yeah that's the whole damn point. Some normies figured out how to play their fake little game.
Re: Reddit's GameStop, AMC surge is the new Occupy movement
#235Earlier quoted context omitted.
Go to the third world and you'll see that reliability and longevity give Toyota a huge cachet that is basically unrivaled. That effect is amplified in countries that have import tariffs on automobiles, because the secondary market is large. Not everyone in the world buys cars to pleasure themselves. For most people, automobiles are a tool and their dependability is more important than their excitement factor. Also, a…
>Go to the third world and you'll see that reliability and longevity give Toyota a huge cachet that is basically unrivaled. >That effect is amplified in countries that have import tariffs on automobiles, because the secondary market is large. This is the exact same naive logic people use to justify Tesla's valuating. On one hand you have yuppie fanboys bindly harping on about Tesla's magical engineering in the face o…
> Toyota makes fairly boring products of the last century.
Toyota sells around 10mm cars a year. Only about a fifth of those sales take place in Canada, US, and Mexico. The demand picture for EVs and vehicles in general is not uniform across geography. Some places like small cars, others big; some places like EVs, others have no chargers; some places buy new cars, others can't afford it.
BTW Mexico has a different mix of vehicles because much of the first-world production happens within the country. And Chile has the highest median income of all Latin America. Extrapolating from some perception about the Chilean or Mexican auto market is a poor way to characterize LatAm in general.
> On the other hand there is another yuppie fanboy harping about "muh hilix" despite the fact that Toyota has lied through its teeth about rust in North America for ~30yr, the Hilux/LC aren't outstandingly (in the literal sense) popular in Asia and people in Africa/ME will bolt a machine gun to anything that runs regardless of brand.
OK so this is a bit more on topic. The Hilux is a great truck (even ISIS likes it) but I'm not talking about the Hilux and yuppies. I'm telling you that there are people who make $400/mo who are proud to buy a 10yo Toyota. They don't approach vehicle purchases the same way that an American would. The concept that a car is "last century" is absolutely ridiculous to that segment of the auto market. Those people don't buy these vehicles because of status, they buy them because the local mechanic tells them that the motors don't need to be rebuilt so often.
Case study: Ecuador. Import tariffs make autos cost approximately double what they cost in the US, perhaps more. A Ford Raptor costs US$150k. Income disparity means there isn't a vibrant middle class. Fuel is subsidized; the country produces a half-million barrels of oil daily and has three refineries. Much of the transit (including in the Quito metropolitan area) occurs through mountains where roads are poor quality. Road closures due to landslides are common. A used Suzuki Grand Vitara that costs $700 in the US might go for $4,000 in Ecuador.
You have this concept that people in the third world model their choices on the preferences of rich people. I don't believe that's true. Income disparity is so broad, and the middle class so narrow, that most non-rich people in LatAm just make do and try to survive.
Re: Reddit's GameStop, AMC surge is the new Occupy movement
#236Earlier quoted context omitted.
Can anyone explain what utility, to the real economy, that short selling stocks provides? Practically speaking, why is shorting useful? What problems in the financial system does it solve. Asking in earnest.
Short selling accelerates price discovery in order to allow for more efficient capital allocation, thus making our overall economy stronger.
Re: Reddit's GameStop, AMC surge is the new Occupy movement
#237The only thing more ridiculous than the rise in the GME stock are these attempts to frame this is some sort of culture war. All this is is a bunch of people on an online forum trying to make a quick buck; it's not some grand statement against Wall St. or whatever.
Re: Reddit's GameStop, AMC surge is the new Occupy movement
#238Earlier quoted context omitted.
Toyota makes fairly boring products of the last century. Musk is currently shooting rockets into space and deploying a network of satellites. The optics of this cannot be discounted.
Toyota is always a decade behind, it is part of their value proposition. Bronze tools were better than iron for over a century after iron was commonplace. Toyota has a very conservative engineering culture. And the idea is that it makes for more reliability. The overvaluation of tesla is just an extreme example of the overvaluation of the whole market. Every stock has a decade or two of growth baked into the current…
Anecdotal - my neighbour has a 2019 Model X with some shenanigans going on with a sensor in the driver's side door. It has been going on more or less since the car was new, but parts are in short supply as it is (understandably, as long as the market lets them get away with it) more profitable to put the part in a new car than it is to perform a warranty repair.
On my 20-year old Land Cruiser, I recently had to replace the multi-function switch for adjusting the power mirrors. My local Toyota garage (on a small island off the Norwegian coast) didn't have it in stock, but next morning at 0851 a SMS ticked in, stating the part was ready for pickup - at a cost of less than $100 for the complete unit.
That kind of logistics organization is what Tesla will need in the long run. Building it is going to be very, very costly.
Re: Reddit's GameStop, AMC surge is the new Occupy movement
#239Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am under the impression that Islam technically bans loans. So one would have to do an investment instead of a loan with interest. Do you know if I have this right?
My understanding is that it isn't the loan that is banned but charging interest. A fairly simple workaround would then be to charge a monthly fee instead, and you would then end up with something that in practice is more or less the same.
Re: Reddit's GameStop, AMC surge is the new Occupy movement
#240Earlier quoted context omitted.
Could you elaborate on how shorting past 100% is comparable to subletting? How is shorting alike borrowing something?
Ok, so, there's a concert by in 4 weeks. Tickets are sold at 100$. But the show is extremely popular, so the tickets are traded, and the price shoots up to 300$. You think the price is still going to go higher, so you buy a ticket for 300$. The price goes up to 400$, you sell the ticket, and you made 100$. (You were long, and the price went up - you made money.) Now, the price goes to 5000$. You think, well, that's w…
Now, price is back at $5000. You want to go short, but big time this time around.
You're going to Mike and borrow the ticket, and to Steve and borrow his ticket, and all your 8 friends (MSetc), and borrow their tickets and sell them to Anna, Betsy, Charlotte, etc (ABC). Now you're short 8 tickets, you'll have to buy back 8 tickets later to give back to your friends (SMe).
However, your hedge fund buddy (HFB) also thinks the price is too high, and wants to sell. He goes to Anna, Betsy, Charlotte etc. and asks whether he could borrow their tickets. Well, why would they give him their tickets? Well, he'll give it back in time, and he'll throw in a 2$ borrow fee for every day he has the tickets borrowed. Sure, they say, and he goes out and sells those 8 tickets to Redditors.
However, turns out that it's an Indy band, and they had only sold 15 tickets in total, 8 to your friends, and 7 to random other people (ROP).
There's a net supply of 15 tix.
Your friends SMe have 0 tickets, have lent 8 tickets, so are long 8 tickets.
You have 0 tickets, have borrowed 8 tickets, so are short 8 tickets. (Replace "borrow 8" by "lent -8", if you want.)
ABC have 0 tickets, have lent 8 tickets, so are long 8 tickets.
HF buddy has 0 tickets, has borrowed 8 tickets, so is short 8 tickets.
Redditors have 8 tickets, haven't borrowed or lent, so are long 8 tickets.
All of the above have a total 8 tickets (Redditors) = 24 long position (SMe, ABC, Redditors) minus 16 short position (You, HFB).
Random other people have the remaining 7 tickets.
Total ticket supply = 15. Total long = 24+7 = 31. Total short = 16. And, 31-16 = 15 net.
This is how short interest (16) can exceed net supply (15).
If the price goes up 10$, the total price of the tickets (=market cap) goes up 150$. The longs win 310$, the shorts lose 160$.
If the price goes down 10$, the total price of the tickets (=market cap) drops 150$. The longs lose 310$, the shorts win 160$.
Ok. Penultimate step.
Now concert comes closer. You owe SME their 8 tickets, and HFBuddy owes ABC their 8 tickets. However, Redditors are not selling their tickets. So, you and HFBuddy go out to random other people (who have 7 tickets in total) and want to buy back 16 tickets! They might give it to you, but when they realise what's going on, they might want $20000 per ticket. Or more! You have to pay up, and what you need is more than what's available on the market!! They won't sell it! Price rises!
That's a short squeeze.
ROP, Redditors, ABC, SME get rich (31 long), and you and HFbuddy lose (16 tix). Hey, you wonder, how can so many people get rich, nearly twice as many as lose? Well, they don't really - remember, 15 people will go to the concert. They won't sell the ticket. They don't care about the price. There is a 15 net supply. Someone ends up with the ticket, with the concert. Not 31 get rich, but 16 get rich, and 16 lose. 15 end up holding the tickets, going to the concert (= being long term share holders.) They might still sell the ticket, then they might win or lose.
Ok. Now, final step.
The Redditors are a fine bunch. They won't sell, and they won't lend their tickets to evil shorters! They like the band, and they will prevail.
But you know, one of the ROP is not that keen on music, and when HFBuddy offers him $5100 for the ticket he bought for $5000, yeah, he sells it. HFBuddy loses a bit, but hey. He gives the borrowed ticket back to Anna, closing this short. So, now he asks her, "would you sell it back to me? $5100 dollars." She is not as keen as the Redditors, and sells it to him. HFBuddy loses a bit, but hey. He gives the ticket back to Betsy. So, now he asks her, "would you sell it back to me? $5100 dollars." .....
Ok, you see where this is going. After a while, he can give back the ticket to Henrietta, and he is out of the short position. Bought 1 Ticket from a ROP, and closed out all his short positions, by buying from the people he had just returned it to. HFBuddy is out of his short, with a bit of a loss.
So, Redditors have 8 tickets left, and they're HODLing, ROP have 6 (since one of them sold out) - and Henrietta has a ticket. You ask Henrietta whether she'd sell it. She does. You take that one ticket and give it to Steve, ask whether he'd sell it back to you. He does. You go to all the other friends MSe friends (except Mike), close out your shorts, and buy it back. Finally, you give the last ticket to Mike, closing out your entire short position.
Now, who has tickets? Mike 1, ROP 6, and Redditors 8. Together 15 tickets. You and HFBuddy are out of their short position, even though 6 ROP and all 8 Redditors held on to their tickets and their long position for dear life.
Price had gone up from 5000 to 5100, so both you and HFbuddy have lost 800 each on their short, total of 1600, (while ABC and MSE (minus Mike plus one ROP)) each made 100, being long, total of 1600.
Now the hype dies down. Nobody wants the tickets anymore, and now Mike, 6 ROP, and the 8 Redditors have to go to the concert.
The Redditors don't really want to go to the concert, they were in it for the LOLs. So now they're trying to sell. Couple of original MSE and ABC say, yeah, I'd be willing to see the band, but I'll only pay 100$ for the ticket.
Redditors lose their shirt, or go to see the concert.
(That's being long term share holder. :)