Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

theguardian.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

481–490 of 519 posts

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#481

Post by matwood »

curiousllama wrote: post #432
matwood wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have also been through many hurricanes. A point you're missing is that places like a gas stations are prioritized to getting power back on over a place like your house. In one large hurricane as a kid, my house didn't get power back for almost a month. With that said, many places on the coast have improved a lot by building power lines underground. We never even lost power in the last storm I went through a few yea…

This is a good point. Do electric charging stations get the same prioritization, do you know?

Probably not, but seems like they would as more people begin to own electric cars. Charging stations also tend to be on main thoroughfares, which tend to get power back before neighborhoods.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#482

Post by oblio »

thinkcontext wrote: post #441
oblio wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're being downvoted because HN loves electric car, but for the layman, that's their thought process: 1. Does the EV cost as much as a regular car? Most of them are very expensive, comparatively, especially for cheap family cars. 2. Is the range comparable to regular cars? It's not, at similar prices it's 60%. 3. Is it trivial to recharge it, especially quickly? Not true for most of the world. 4. Can the car be bou…

> Does the EV cost as much as a regular car? Most of them are very expensive, comparatively, especially for cheap family cars. The average price paid for new US cars was $40K [0]. There are now plenty of models below that without subsidy, including Chevy Bolt, Nissan Leaf, VW ID4, Kia Niro, Hyundai Kona and even the low end of the Tesla 3. That's just the upfront price, of course TCO is lower than a same price ICE ca…

That $40k price is just for the US. For the rest of the world prices are much lower, even in developed countries (the average EU car price is about $35k: https://www.statista.com/statistics/425095/eu-car-sales-aver...). And let's not get started with developing countries, where it's a lot more likely that the price is around $15k.

On top of that, a lot of people buy used cars. Even in the rich US, used car sales dwarf sales of new cars: https://www.statista.com/statistics/183713/value-of-us-passe...

And as cars are a quickly depreciating asset, used cars are much cheaper on average:

> In 2019, the average selling price of used vehicles came to around 21,000 U.S. dollars

https://www.statista.com/statistics/274928/used-vehicle-aver...

This is what EVs are fighting against. Not just against other new cars, but against used cars too.

Plus personally I've rarely convinced anyone to buy anything with TCO calculations. Maybe you've had more luck :-)

I think EVs are still a few years ago from real mass adoption. 2025 sounds a bit more realistic. I'd say that the second gen ones are the ones that will make it through (Tesla Model 3 2027 facelift, or whatever they'll call it, ID3/ID4 2028 facelift, etc.). Those will probably have access to well developed super charging networks and to 90-100k MWh batteries at a 25% lower price.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#483

Post by throwaway2a02 »

bluGill wrote: post #463
throwaway2a02 wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand why grid-tied systems are built this way, but from an engineering standpoint this is really inefficient. Converting from DC to AC and back to DC, for no reason. In fact, most solar controllers are already designed to use and charge batteries. It doesn't help that most car manufacturers use locked battery charging protocols that don't allow you to easily change this process.

solar panels are the wrong dc voltage, so some sort of conversion is needed. I'm no EE, but my understanding is you go through AC and a transformer anyway in most cases.

Virtually all off-grid solar installations use some kind of an MPPT controller with a battery setup. The controller is always charging the battery (when there is power output from the panels), and the consumer power output is supplied by the batteries. This way you get much higher peak current output than the panels could provide, you also ensure stability.

In fact, many cabin installations don't even use inverters to convert into AC. They instead use DC appliances. So no, going through AC makes no sense in this scenario.

As for DC voltage levels, that of course is dependent on solar panel configuration and battery cells configurations/packing. Virtually all electric cars have a built in charger with a switching power supply that's already doing the DC voltage conversion. What I was remarking was that there is a lot of duplicate electronics that perform the same function and that a lot of intermediary steps can be eliminated.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#484

Post by brianwawok »

palmtree3000 wrote: post #470
brianwawok wrote: post #413

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Cheapest Honda 21k https://automobiles.honda.com/tools/build-and-price#panel-so... Cheapest Ford $19,995 https://shop.ford.com/showroom/?linktype=brand&intcmp=hp-sho... Those budget brands generally don’t have dealers here. Like I said you can maybe find a weird budget dealer somewhere, but it’s well under 1% if sales volume. Low budget people typically buy 3-15 year old versions of these cars (which is easily u…

Honda fit? https://automobiles.honda.com/tools/build-and-price-trims?mo... "Starting at $16,190"

Nice, had to dig deeper to find it.

https://carsalesbase.com/us-honda-fit/

Only sold 32k cars in 2020, basically a rounding error compares to overall Honda sales. 260k civics and 200k accords.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#485

Post by brianwawok »

throwaway0a5e wrote: post #414
sergiosgc wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this real? In Europe you can get a Fiat Panda, brand new, for 9k€. Smallish engine, barebones interior, but overall a pretty decent car.

>Is this real? In Europe you can get a Fiat Panda, brand new, for 9k€. Smallish engine, barebones interior, but overall a pretty decent car. Mitsubishi Mirage and other ~15k hatches fly off the (metaphorical) shelves. Just not in the kinds of neighborhoods HN tends to live in. Also HN's househeeper tends to buy a used Corrolla (or some other hallmark of upper middle class conspicuous consumption) from one of their cl…

19k cars sold in 2020?

https://carsalesbase.com/us-mitsubishi-mirage/

That is a tiny tiny fraction of things like Corrola and Civic.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#486

Post by csunbird »

selykg wrote: post #394
csunbird wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It is totally uneconomic to scrap a car only because one part broke. When the battery replacement cost outvalues the cars price, it is uneconomical to repair.

Everyone is always so hung up on the value of the car when it comes to repairs. The value of the car is only what someone would pay for it. If you're planning to keep it, then that value is only an insurance number. A car is potentially worth a lot more if you keep it, especially if the car is low maintenance. With electric cars you trade some value up front (they are typically more expensive) to reduce the maintenan…

This is quite different from maintenance. You already pay upfront to have lower maintenance costs, so the gas/oil/maintenance savings argument do not apply here, I think.

You usually do not throw the car when it requires a major repair, but when the car is worth 2k with dead batteries to scrap and the replacement of the batteries costs 10k, while you can find a car that is OK to drive for 9k, it is considered uneconomical to repair. Because if you can just sell the car for 2k, pay 9k for another car, you are only losing 7k in the process. Replacing the battery costs 10k - the opportunity cost of replacing the battery is 3k.

This is why a car that requires an engine replacement (for an ICE car) is simply scrapped for parts instead of putting a new engine.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#487

Post by csunbird »

leetcrew wrote: post #439
selykg wrote: post #416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still say that's not a good argument. If the repair costs $2000 to fix the car, and it's otherwise fine, then it's worth it over another car so long as it is still getting the job done. Where I would agree with you is when the car is no longer safe, either from a structural standpoint, or due to safety standards improving drastically. In those types of scenarios it is worth buying a new car simply for those reasons…

> But here's an example. Say you have a car. It's worth $1000 but is otherwise in fine condition. It runs great, it's safe, it is rust free and structurally sound. Except it needs to tires. Lets say those tires cost $750 because you also have to buy a new wheel and maybe the tires are harder to find. Do you go "well... that's too much... I'm just going to throw the car out and get a new one I think the same logic app…

> It's worth $1000 but is otherwise in fine condition.

You need to calculate if the cost of 4 tyres plus any future maintenance costs (and the time that is going to be lost in the future for maintenance) exceeds the cost of a new car minus the cars current value.

Opportunity costs and value brought by a new car is hard to calculate, yes, but the motto is: if you like the car to spend 1000 on it, just do it. E.g. My car is 15 years old, while I can afford a brand new one, I don't, because I love it :)

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#488

Post by thinkcontext »

oblio wrote: post #482
thinkcontext wrote: post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Does the EV cost as much as a regular car? Most of them are very expensive, comparatively, especially for cheap family cars. The average price paid for new US cars was $40K [0]. There are now plenty of models below that without subsidy, including Chevy Bolt, Nissan Leaf, VW ID4, Kia Niro, Hyundai Kona and even the low end of the Tesla 3. That's just the upfront price, of course TCO is lower than a same price ICE ca…

That $40k price is just for the US. For the rest of the world prices are much lower, even in developed countries (the average EU car price is about $35k: https://www.statista.com/statistics/425095/eu-car-sales-aver... ). And let's not get started with developing countries, where it's a lot more likely that the price is around $15k. On top of that, a lot of people buy used cars. Even in the rich US, used car sales dwa…

You've moved the goalposts from where you originally said EV's are "very expensive". "Very expensive" cannot mean less than the average price for a new car. You can argue more expensive than comparable quality or something but "very expensive" is wrong. As for used cars, I don't think there's enough data yet but I recall seeing an article where Teslas depreciated less than comparable ICE vehicles.

On the developing world front, in the last few months of the year the best selling EV in China cost $4,200.

> Plus personally I've rarely convinced anyone to buy anything with TCO calculations. Maybe you've had more luck :-)

The fuel costs ways less per mile, what don't you believe about that?

> I think EVs are still a few years ago from real mass adoption. 2025 sounds a bit more realistic.

This is what the projections I've read say as well, and battery prices will continue to decline, though not as steeply. That will be when the steepening of the adoption S curve happens.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#489

Post by oblio »

thinkcontext wrote: post #488
oblio wrote: post #482

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That $40k price is just for the US. For the rest of the world prices are much lower, even in developed countries (the average EU car price is about $35k: https://www.statista.com/statistics/425095/eu-car-sales-aver... ). And let's not get started with developing countries, where it's a lot more likely that the price is around $15k. On top of that, a lot of people buy used cars. Even in the rich US, used car sales dwa…

You've moved the goalposts from where you originally said EV's are "very expensive". "Very expensive" cannot mean less than the average price for a new car. You can argue more expensive than comparable quality or something but "very expensive" is wrong. As for used cars, I don't think there's enough data yet but I recall seeing an article where Teslas depreciated less than comparable ICE vehicles. On the developing w…

> You've moved the goalposts from where you originally said EV's are "very expensive".

Very expensive for me, personally. I wouldn't pay the average US price of a car :-) Most of the world, including most Americans, seems to agree with me.

> As for used cars, I don't think there's enough data yet but I recall seeing an article where Teslas depreciated less than comparable ICE vehicles.

This is both good and bad. It's good, rationally, for TCO (but see my comment about TCO below), but it's bad because the second hand market price is higher, see my comment above :-)

> The fuel costs ways less per mile, what don't you believe about that?

I'm not saying I don't believe you, I'm saying that a big initial price is a much higher hurdle than you'd expect. People are not fully rational (otherwise the $9,99 psychological prices wouldn't work everywhere across the world) plus they don't fully/correctly factor in savings later. As they say: a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#490

Post by ryathal »

u678u wrote: post #452

I want to install electrical charge points in my building's 200 car garage. Does anyone have suggestions on solutions for this?

County or city building departments is probably a good place to start. If you want a few chargers it's probably find an electrician and get a permit. If you want 200 chargers, you will be talking to the power company and governments, you probably want a lawyer.
Post reply on HN