Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020 • Hacker News Board

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#241

Post by kstenerud » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 10:10 AM UTC

AYBABTME wrote: post #233

tomp wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> At least in my (very narrow) experience I have not seen much evidence for qualitative innovation in china This argument never sounded very true and intellectually honest to me. I mean, I want to believe in it, but when I scrutinize it precisely, I wonder - how can you measure the ability to innovate of someone who doesn't want (or need) to innovate? At present time, China's competitive advantage is cheap specialize…

If you look at Japan and Korea who took the same approach of "cheap specialized labour", they both pivoted to high quality, and more innovative once they caught up. I have no doubt China will do the same, but at much larger scale. There's already a lot of innovative consumer products coming online, which I'd attribute to the vibe of rapid and efficient hardware products iteration in Shenzen.

Japan and Korea are collective societies, not autocratic ones.

China's goal under Xi is a return to the golden age of the Kingdom of Heaven, where all Chinese people exemplify the ideals and morals of the most civilized society on Earth. That goal is only tangentially related to the technical innovations they're making, and will eventually stifle them as the definition of "good citizen" and "proper pursuits" becomes more hardened and inward-looking (much like it did during the Middle Kingdom).

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#242

Post by numpad0 » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 10:13 AM UTC

adrianN wrote: post #130

jjav wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's easier to set up back yard solar panels than a back yard fuel refinery. If you have lot of open space with sun exposure, true. For the average small yard, it's easier to buy a 55gal drum of gasoline and a manual pump if you can anticipate the need. Growing up in hurricane country, it's something some people did. Buy a drum in the summer and store it. If it wasn't needed, just use it up after November (end of h…

You probably have a roof that doesn't have solar panels yet.

And you probably haven't seen a hurricane. Or snow for that matter.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#243

Post by theshrike79 » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 10:17 AM UTC

oblio wrote: post #118

paul7986 wrote: post #27

Can i get an electric car that I can go fill it's battery as fast as I can go fill my gasoline tank? That's when I'm getting one!

You're being downvoted because HN loves electric car, but for the layman, that's their thought process: 1. Does the EV cost as much as a regular car? Most of them are very expensive, comparatively, especially for cheap family cars. 2. Is the range comparable to regular cars? It's not, at similar prices it's 60%. 3. Is it trivial to recharge it, especially quickly? Not true for most of the world. 4. Can the car be bou…

1. True, EVs are more expensive and do need government subsidies to make up the difference

2. If you're measuring range as "don't stop at all, I'll pee in a bottle" range, then yes.

A better measurement would be "is the range enough for my normal daily use", then the answer is yes for a large number of people. Not everyone of course, some people actually _need_ to drive long distances daily without the ability to recharge. For those people an ICE car is the only valid option for at least a good 5 years.

3. The first thing you should forget is the "gas station" mentality, there shouldn't be any need to drive to a specific "charging station" and wait for 45 minutes doing nothing for the car to charge.

Recharging should always be done at home overnight (10+ hours of charge time, low power requirement), or during normal daily activities (work, shopping).

Quick recharges should only be needed if you're driving more in a day than the car's maximum range is. Road trips and traveling long distances mostly.

4. True, electric cars are sold as fast as they can be churned off the production line. The most popular ones have long queues.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#244

Post by mobilemidget » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 10:19 AM UTC

sircastor wrote: post #10

I’ll be interested to see the lifespan of EVs for “normal” people. I’ve got a 2012 Nissan LEAF we bought post-lease in 2015. I love it still, and don’t have any plans to replace it. The battery is not in great shape, but it gets me where I need to go. I am genuinely considering replacing the battery rather than buying another EV when the battery finally fails.

On the radio the other day there was a car show and they were talking about costs for battery replacements (and then it was advised to replace board computer, managing the batteries too) for a Tesla, I was shocked by the costs. I don't recall the exact but he was 30k+ euro lighter. I was interested in a electric car, but interest dropped significantly after hearing that. Maybe I don't know enough about cars to compare to regular gas cars maintenance costs.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#245

Post by vincentmarle » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 10:21 AM UTC

kstenerud wrote: post #124

missedthecue wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Autocracies seem to be the most efficient form of governance. It's a shame that this also means that they can do evil things very efficiently, given no one can stop them.

Autocracies are only short-term efficient. Once their initial aims are met, they become terribly inefficient, then corruption sets in, and then they must be forcibly removed. It's good for other nations who can benefit from their trailblazing, but bad for the nation itself because they're basically fucked in the future when the bill comes due. Centralization is long-term the worst kind of governance, inevitably becom…

As opposed to... what? Democracy?

You think that democracies are long-term efficient?

Democracies don’t have corruption?

Democracies don’t become self-serving?

I mean, I prefer to live in a democracy because of individual freedoms but it’s not terribly well-organized.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#246

Post by eunos » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 10:22 AM UTC

psnatch wrote: post #169

godmode2019 wrote: post #81

'Global sales' I hope everyone understands in China it is very hard to get a licence plate, the government allows you to get a licence plate if you buy a heavily subsidised electric car. The aim is to stimulate demand to develop an industry. Large cities also banned motorbikes and scooters, with the same aim. This is no way market driven demand, BYD is a very interesting company to look into. It is my understanding t…

> If a large part of the consumer sector is driven by electric powered by local sources (coal, hydro, nuclear)... Didn't they have rolling blackouts in China earlier this month, due to a trade-spat with Australia + their reliance on their (our) coal?

Blackout only occurs in a selected province due to strong export demands and early winter which increase electric heaters.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#247

Post by blueblisters » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 10:22 AM UTC

WanderPanda wrote: post #205

kstenerud wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Autocracies are only short-term efficient. Once their initial aims are met, they become terribly inefficient, then corruption sets in, and then they must be forcibly removed. It's good for other nations who can benefit from their trailblazing, but bad for the nation itself because they're basically fucked in the future when the bill comes due. Centralization is long-term the worst kind of governance, inevitably becom…

I absolutely agree! I am just really struggling to put a time estimate on when the bill will come due for china. I think they can be in an upward trend for some more years as a technological follower. What I mean by that is that they use simple metrics of current technology (Ghz, GB, battery life, screen colors, electric car range and so in) and just “mandate” to get better in them. But all these things will eventual…

How do you measure qualitative innovation? If research is a good measure of innovation, China is only second to the US in AI research, for example.

If innovation is measured by consumer adoption of new technology, TikTok is the first major AI-first consumer application. In other markets too, China has made major innovations in the consumer space that have not caught up in the West yet - ecommerce, fintech, consumer goods and more. None of these are top-down CCP mandated innovations.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#248

Post by africanboy » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 10:22 AM UTC

erikstarck wrote: post #59

danielheath wrote: post #11

Up 43% is great news. To put it in context: There were 91 million cars produced last year (per wikipedia) and 3 million electric cars sold.

If that growth rate continues, electric cars will pass 50% sold in 8 years. Going to be an interesting decade.

gold trading volumes have doubled between 2018 and 2019.

It haven' t made it a replacement for fiat currencies in the following 2 years.

EVs are still too expensive for the majority of people that _need_ to buy a car and their growth will put pressure on the charging infrastructure, which is insufficient right now or inexistent in large areas all over the World, for example here in Italy outside of the 2-3 larger cities, owning a 100% EV is a luxury.

I'm also not sure production capacity can sustain that kind of growth in the near future.

In Europe regulations about emissions are driving up the EV sales for company fleets, but the overall car sales are going down. There are 40 million registered cars in Italy and in Q4 2020 only 8.5 thousands were new electric cars.

We have a long way before EVs replace ICEs.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#249

Post by jacquesm » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 10:22 AM UTC

eecc wrote: post #229

rakoo wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Call me cynical but climate change, the biggest threat to mankind right is right in front of us. We will also face the biggest threat to what made our civilization and our democracy possible, which is cheap quasi-unlimited access to energy (petrol in our case). Combine both and I don't see democracies as being able to efficiently navigate us out of this combined nightmare to come. As you said, autocracies are efficie…

Not necessarily. Autocracies don’t self-correct when it’s needed: dissent is not tolerated and dissenters are automatically out-group and dealt with accordingly.

I can see a very bad version of the trolley problem in our future. Do we let go of capitalism and democracy for a while in order to save the species or do we hang on to them and possibly lose it all? Autocracy can always be gotten rid of at some point, at least, you'd hope. With present day tech it might be a ratchet that once it clicks will not get reversed.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#250

Post by kstenerud » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 10:23 AM UTC

bluetomcat wrote: post #234

kstenerud wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Autocracies are only short-term efficient. Once their initial aims are met, they become terribly inefficient, then corruption sets in, and then they must be forcibly removed. It's good for other nations who can benefit from their trailblazing, but bad for the nation itself because they're basically fucked in the future when the bill comes due. Centralization is long-term the worst kind of governance, inevitably becom…

> Autocracies are only short-term efficient. Once their initial aims are met, they become terribly inefficient, then corruption sets in, and then they must be forcibly removed. From the point of view of Western individualism, yes. However, a strong autocracy relies on building a strong collective identity through education and the cultural institutions. That identity isolates the individual from his personal beliefs…

You're conflating autocracy with collectivism. Collectivism exists in a very healthy fashion in democracies / free markets (for example Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and even Hong Kong before the clampdown).

Eastern collectivism doesn't need a rod of iron to enforce it.