Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Tesla is the only participant that has a true path to self driving technology. They dont even ship cars with Stereo front facing cameras. Eight cameras, twelve hypersonic sensors, one forward facing radar, GPS, and still no stereo vision resulting in cars plowing full speed into stationary obstacles ....
U know u can do depth perception from time without stereo cameras?
Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says
41–50 of 60 posts
Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says
#42Earlier quoted context omitted.
In my opinion, the problem is Tesla and Elon refuse to acknowledge the value of LIDAR. A fused sensor approach is the only way we're going to get full autonomy. I was in this field in 2007 on the DARPA Urban challenge so maybe the state of the art indicates otherwise now however, from the NHTSA investigations into crashes from Tesla's autopilot all of them would have been fixed with even basic LIDAR.
Maybe when LICAMs become super cheap but so far, no competitor has shown a better/more advanced ADAS system using LIDAR.
Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says
#43nobody's autopilot will achieve full autonomy in the near future. Full autonomy actually meaning, you could rip the steering wheel out of the car and have it drive through any city you wish instead of "it drives through grid streets in American suburbs correctly like, 95% of the time" The entire current approach has no correctness guarantees, ML systems are horrible at dealing with tail-risk, there's a human communic…
Where do you think we are in fully autonomous planes. Curious if that problem is easier or harder than cars.
There is always a pilot communicating with ATC, providing data, receiving and validating instructions and then entering them to the flight computer.
Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says
#44Earlier quoted context omitted.
> At this point it’s best not to bet against Elon. Maybe in a "should you short Tesla stock" or "will a Californian jury rule against him" sense. But on the other hand, if you bet a friend on how many Tesla Robotaxis would be on the road by the end of 2020 you could be sitting on a nice bottle of whisky by now.
Betting one friend on a small timing detail is fun and all, but that not really what people mean when people talk about 'not betting against Elon'. We are talking about big things. Elon said they will capture Apollo size booster directly from the air on ocean space ports. And the majority of people were like 'mh, sound reasonable will probably work in a few years'. Think about laterally any other person or government…
Elon said coronavirus would be finished in the US by April, 2020. How'd that work out for him?
Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says
#45Earlier quoted context omitted.
Tesla is the only participant that has a true path to self driving technology. Legacy car makers are Goliaths set in the past. They're stuck to the annual release cycle and can't even over the air updates and a touch screen on par with an iPad from 8 years ago. Legacy automakers have failed to deliver on electric cars for decades. Musk talked about this. There was nothing special about the time he entered the market…
>Tesla is the only participant that has a true path to self driving technology. They dont even ship cars with Stereo front facing cameras. Eight cameras, twelve hypersonic sensors, one forward facing radar, GPS, and still no stereo vision resulting in cars plowing full speed into stationary obstacles ....
One is depth-from-defocus combined with "overlap" hierarchy information that can be used to build a depth-map. This is the technique Tesla talked about. Interestingly, instead of manually coding up this algorithm, they simply trained a neural net to do it! The trick was to use the radar data as the "ground truth", and train the NN to predict it based on the optical input. It works quite well, and there are videos floating about showing how a Tesla can build up an accurate 3D model of the world around it as it drives along.
There are other approaches as well. For example, the way birds gather depth information is they move their head. One eye takes two "snapshots" of the scene in rapid succession from slightly different positions, producing a stereo pair. A moving car is constantly shifting the camera positions. Note that you don't have to be moving the cameras side-to-side, moving along the road can be enough, as the shift of the focal plane can be used as an additional channel of information for the depth-from-defocus method mentioned above. This is what some mirror-less cameras do: they shift focus back-and-forth a bit to gain more information about the scene. A moving car has the same effect.
Tesla has recently implemented some variant of this latter technique, they also talked about this publicly. Essentially, the first version of the self-driving hardware didn't have the computing power to analyse multiple frames together like this. The current version has the compute power to include the last few frames as well as inputs to the NN, which gives it not just more temporal stability but also the opportunity to extract depth information from motion. (However, I'm not sure if they've actually used motion in this specific way.)
Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says
#46Earlier quoted context omitted.
Maybe when LICAMs become super cheap but so far, no competitor has shown a better/more advanced ADAS system using LIDAR.
Well, Waymo has demonstrated full autonomous using lidar?
Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says
#47... says Google. But this does ring true, and the come-to-Jesus moment on Tesla’s valuation will be when people realize this is the case. If they had a legitimate shot at being the first true players in self-driving, their valuation (which currently prices them on par with something like the sum of the top three automakers...) isn’t insane. But if it really is just lane-keep assist with intelligent cruise control, I’…
I watched a finance YouTube podcast where they observed the price of Tesla stock can best be explained by "Tesla is a religion." I think this is true. Tesla is a religion to people so it's not clear that the stock will have a come to Jesus moment since religions don't need to deal with facts. People want the stock for religious reasons and will buy the price up. Even in this thread you have someone saying "Elon alway…
Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says
#48... says Google. But this does ring true, and the come-to-Jesus moment on Tesla’s valuation will be when people realize this is the case. If they had a legitimate shot at being the first true players in self-driving, their valuation (which currently prices them on par with something like the sum of the top three automakers...) isn’t insane. But if it really is just lane-keep assist with intelligent cruise control, I’…
Tesla is the only participant that has a true path to self driving technology. Legacy car makers are Goliaths set in the past. They're stuck to the annual release cycle and can't even over the air updates and a touch screen on par with an iPad from 8 years ago. Legacy automakers have failed to deliver on electric cars for decades. Musk talked about this. There was nothing special about the time he entered the market…
The Renault Zoe was the best selling BEV in Europe in 2020:
https://insideevs.com/news/467101/renault-bev-sales-december...
Tesla has gone from being the top BEV maker in Europe to now being third. Soon Tesla will become fourth in Europe after Hyundai overtakes them.
Different markets like different cars. The Audi e-tron was the best selling BEV in Norway in 2020 and is currently the best seller in 2021:
https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2021/01/norway-december-2020.h...
Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says
#49Other stuff from the legends at Bloomberg: SuperMicro is absolutely definitely backdooring all their motherboards with spychips to China. Sure, if you were dumb enough to believe that last time, you might consider Bloomberg a reputable source this time, but otherwise why would you?
RTFA. This clearly is not a position that Bloomberg as a publication is taking. It’s a report on interindustry shittalk - not the highest form of reporting but not even comparable to the story you’re referencing.
Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says
#50I am a huge fan of what Waymo has accomplished. And I think in the beginning Tesla's FSD Beta was so bad that it was reckless to release to the testers. BUT. Look at the very latest version of the Tesla FSD Beta ("beta 10") as of now. It is literally doing the full self-driving task with very few disengagements now. And the improvements over the course of the last few months have been dramatic. At this point it is no…
Lets be honest here. If Tesla had invested the waste majority of their efforts on 1 city, not having to deal with all the problems of broken line markings, crazy signs, signs in different language, driving threw fog at night, driving mountains roads, driving country side in China and so on. Could the Tesla software do what Waymo does? Specially if you map out the whole city? I would argue it could. I agree that Tesla…
But personally I think that Waymo is going to be a bit safer because it has the LIDAR which even if you don't think that matters, it can definitely see farther because of its position above the car.
And I think that Waymo will be deployed in several cities by the end of 2021 or 2022 at least. And I think it's great to have competition. Cruise will also probably be able to deploy.
But Tesla probably will force them to build systems that require less stringent mapping so they can add cities quickly.