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Sure, if you were dumb enough to believe that last time, you might consider Bloomberg a reputable source this time, but otherwise why would you?
At this point it’s best not to bet against Elon. I’d bet his timelines are off, that’s always been the case. But his army of engineers know what they’re doing.
Tesla is far from the only EV manufacturer.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Tesla is the only participant that has a true path to self driving technology. Legacy car makers are Goliaths set in the past. They're stuck to the annual release cycle and can't even over the air updates and a touch screen on par with an iPad from 8 years ago. Legacy automakers have failed to deliver on electric cars for decades. Musk talked about this. There was nothing special about the time he entered the market…
> Tesla is the only participant that has a true path to self driving technology. You can’t make a statement without qualifying this. You attack legacy automakers but then go on to discuss Waymo. I would bet money you’re long TSLA. You talk about OTA updates as if that’s some huge technological moat? Hell, cars have been receiving very frequent software updates for over a decade.
Paragraphs 1-3 discuss legacy automakers. Only paragraph 4 references Waymo.
> You talk about OTA updates as if that’s some huge technological moat?
Of course they're not a technological moat. These auto makers are hundreds of thousands of employees. They're likely an organizational nightmare and stuck to the way things have been done. The fact that they don't have over the air updates or have to iterate on an annual cadence is evidence of something deeply flawed in their organizational structure. And I'm not confident that they can overcome it.
... says Google. But this does ring true, and the come-to-Jesus moment on Tesla’s valuation will be when people realize this is the case. If they had a legitimate shot at being the first true players in self-driving, their valuation (which currently prices them on par with something like the sum of the top three automakers...) isn’t insane. But if it really is just lane-keep assist with intelligent cruise control, I’…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Tesla is the only participant that has a true path to self driving technology. Legacy car makers are Goliaths set in the past. They're stuck to the annual release cycle and can't even over the air updates and a touch screen on par with an iPad from 8 years ago. Legacy automakers have failed to deliver on electric cars for decades. Musk talked about this. There was nothing special about the time he entered the market…
In my opinion, the problem is Tesla and Elon refuse to acknowledge the value of LIDAR. A fused sensor approach is the only way we're going to get full autonomy. I was in this field in 2007 on the DARPA Urban challenge so maybe the state of the art indicates otherwise now however, from the NHTSA investigations into crashes from Tesla's autopilot all of them would have been fixed with even basic LIDAR.
Lidar is almost like adding a hand crafted dimension to the decision making process. It makes the system more explainable, but doesn't necessarily mean it will help achieve better results. I look at ML in games like chess and go. Originally, they had a set of hand crafted features, like the concept of "eyes" in go. But later iterations removed those and the network performed better. I think lidar is the same thing where it'll add unnecessary complexity and ultimately hurt in learning.
BUT. Look at the very latest version of the Tesla FSD Beta ("beta 10") as of now. It is literally doing the full self-driving task with very few disengagements now. And the improvements over the course of the last few months have been dramatic.
At this point it is not really safe without watching closely and has a fair way to go before it gets to the high 9s, especially in arbitrary situations as they intend.
But if you look at the progress they have made and how many fewer disengagements there are now, I do not think it is reasonable to assume that they can't get to the finish line. They look like their trajectory is actually to get there.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Tesla is the only participant that has a true path to self driving technology. Legacy car makers are Goliaths set in the past. They're stuck to the annual release cycle and can't even over the air updates and a touch screen on par with an iPad from 8 years ago. Legacy automakers have failed to deliver on electric cars for decades. Musk talked about this. There was nothing special about the time he entered the market…
In my opinion, the problem is Tesla and Elon refuse to acknowledge the value of LIDAR. A fused sensor approach is the only way we're going to get full autonomy. I was in this field in 2007 on the DARPA Urban challenge so maybe the state of the art indicates otherwise now however, from the NHTSA investigations into crashes from Tesla's autopilot all of them would have been fixed with even basic LIDAR.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Tesla is the only participant that has a true path to self driving technology. Legacy car makers are Goliaths set in the past. They're stuck to the annual release cycle and can't even over the air updates and a touch screen on par with an iPad from 8 years ago. Legacy automakers have failed to deliver on electric cars for decades. Musk talked about this. There was nothing special about the time he entered the market…
In my opinion, the problem is Tesla and Elon refuse to acknowledge the value of LIDAR. A fused sensor approach is the only way we're going to get full autonomy. I was in this field in 2007 on the DARPA Urban challenge so maybe the state of the art indicates otherwise now however, from the NHTSA investigations into crashes from Tesla's autopilot all of them would have been fixed with even basic LIDAR.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
In my opinion, the problem is Tesla and Elon refuse to acknowledge the value of LIDAR. A fused sensor approach is the only way we're going to get full autonomy. I was in this field in 2007 on the DARPA Urban challenge so maybe the state of the art indicates otherwise now however, from the NHTSA investigations into crashes from Tesla's autopilot all of them would have been fixed with even basic LIDAR.
This baffles me as well. The technology to solve so many problems hard to approach with other tools is right there, why not use it.
... says Google. But this does ring true, and the come-to-Jesus moment on Tesla’s valuation will be when people realize this is the case. If they had a legitimate shot at being the first true players in self-driving, their valuation (which currently prices them on par with something like the sum of the top three automakers...) isn’t insane. But if it really is just lane-keep assist with intelligent cruise control, I’…
Tesla is the only participant that has a true path to self driving technology. Legacy car makers are Goliaths set in the past. They're stuck to the annual release cycle and can't even over the air updates and a touch screen on par with an iPad from 8 years ago. Legacy automakers have failed to deliver on electric cars for decades. Musk talked about this. There was nothing special about the time he entered the market…
They dont even ship cars with Stereo front facing cameras. Eight cameras, twelve hypersonic sensors, one forward facing radar, GPS, and still no stereo vision resulting in cars plowing full speed into stationary obstacles ....