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Why do we assume extraterrestrials might want to visit us?

scientificamerican.com

231–240 of 299 posts

Re: Why do we assume extraterrestrials might want to visit us?

#231

"Chemical" based intelligence/life is only the bootstrap to "electron" based intelligence/life. Most likely we might be unable to understand that until ourselves cross that line. They will wait for it.

This seems so... obvious , that I'm surprised this potential isn't talked about more. Our own species probably isn't all that far away from generating some variety of machine consciousness. I'd say give it a few hundred years at most. Heck, this begs the question of why the hell would an intelligent alien species even send their meat bags into space, when they can just upload their consciousness into a machine and ha…

>it a few hundred years at most.

We will not wait for that long. When the fundamental "piece" comes out, all our current knowledge in neuroscience will fall into place very quickly.

Re: Why do we assume extraterrestrials might want to visit us?

#232
post #2

>We may be a phenomenon as uninteresting to them as ants are to us; after all, when we’re walking down the sidewalk we rarely if ever examine every ant along our path. Not really the most convincing argument. There are professions that study ants. And I'm sure I'm not the only person on this forum that has a casual interest in observing ants. Pretty sure aliens would still be interested in us even if we were as primi…

I think the argument is that while ants are indeed interesting to us as a subject, not every single anthill gets our attention. There are probably lots of anytime anthills in out of the way places that have never had human interaction.

Maybe not humans, but they probably do get visits from other insects and animals.

Re: Why do we assume extraterrestrials might want to visit us?

#233

I disagree with the author's statement that the Fermi paradox is "pretentious" because it assumes we have cosmic significance. I think a better word for that is "presumptuous", but pedantry aside, I don't believe the Fermi paradox ever says anything about what aliens think of humans. It asks why there isn't more evidence of aliens anywhere we've ever looked, not about why aliens haven't come to ask us for our wisdom…

> It's not asking why they haven't contacted us, it's asking why we can't see them

Space is vast. The strength of communication signals drops off quickly with distance. All life is subject to the laws of thermodynamics.

The Fermi paradox was proposed in 1950 during a time of rapid growth and empire. At that time, radio communications were powerful, and it seemed like they would only get more powerful as our civilization advanced. But that's not what happened. The key to better communication is not more power, but better noise reduction. Since WW2, our radio signals have become weaker and weaker and our receivers smaller as we transmit information more efficiently. Ideally we would transmit signals with the bare minimum amount of energy needed for them to be reliably received by the intended receiver. Any civilization that wants to not waste energy (read all of them) would do the same.

Because power drops off with distance, a more sensitive receiver is required to receive a message at a greater distance than the one intended, and this required improvement to sensitivity increases rapidly with greater distance.

Your cellphone communicates with an antenna approximately 2 meters in length with a maximum range of about 70 kilometers. An antenna of the same technological capability able to pick up your cellphone signal at 1 lightyear would need to be 2900 km in length. At 100 lightyears, you would need an antenna over 37,000 km long.

If you can bounce a signal off satellites, you can communicate with any point on earth - thus the most powerful radio transmissions we need to send for our own utility need to be detectable by a 4 meter dish 30000 km away in geostationary orbit. To detect such a transmission at 1 lightyear requires a receiver 203 km in diameter, at 100 lightyears a dish 2600 km in diameter. Beyond 2000 light years, you need a dish larger than Earth. If you need to communicate any further away than that, you're using highly directional beamed communication between planets which won't be detectable unless the receiver just happens to also be along that beam line.

Thus to detect a radio signal from another civilization using a telescope we could conceivably fit on our planet, one of the following must be true: the transmission must be from a relatively nearby world (0.16% of the milky way in range if they are our technological peers, less if they are more advanced than us), the transmission must use orders of magnitude more power than is necessary for communication (either they are using dramatically less advanced technology or intentional broadcast), or we need to detect highly focused beamed communication (either we get incredibly lucky or its an intentional message directed at us). It would be presumptuous to assume that aliens would set up a colony conveniently close to us, that in our mere 100 years of radio use have already greatly surpassed them, that they have maintained an active beacon for long enough that we would happen to see it, or that they would be trying to communicate with us specifically (especially given that any civilization more than a few dozen light years away would have no way of knowing that there is intelligent life on Earth.

There are of course other means of detecting life besides radio communication. Perhaps we may see pollutants in another world's atmosphere - but we have only directly detected a few thousand exoplanets thus far and observed the atmospheres of only a tiny fraction of those. Perhaps we could detect megastructures like dyson spheres - but to know what we are looking for requires a lot of assumptions about how they are built and we don't even know if they can be built. Really any sign of intelligence detectable over interstellar distances other than radio waves is purely speculative.

The assumption that evidence should be commonplace is poorly founded. Unless the universe were teeming with civilizations at a similar technology level to our own, we shouldn't expect to see anything at all.

Re: Why do we assume extraterrestrials might want to visit us?

#234

I've always loved the thing about solar eclipses and auroras: in order to see an aurora during an eclipse, the moon has to be the exact same size as the sun (when viewed from the planet). Earth has this (for a while at least - the moon is slowly moving away from us), and it makes us special. So if you want to find aliens, look during a solar eclipse. It's a rare phenomenon and if there are alien tourists, they'll wan…

This is in Iain Banks's book Transition. Did anyone else come up with this before him?

Re: Why do we assume extraterrestrials might want to visit us?

#235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The hard fact is there are no shortcuts to interstellar travel, barring new physics. Do you know that early in the development of trains people were sure it would be physically impossible for humans to travel over 30 mph or so? They thought something would happen with the air pressure or something. Our understanding of physics changes.

Given that horses run faster than 30 mph [1], and people have been riding on horses for a while before trains were developed [2], this seems unlikely. [1] https://horseandrider.com/western-horse-life/fastest-a-quart... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domestication_of_the_horse

> this seems unlikely

Well duh nobody thinks it's likely now! Obviously I don't believe it so don't explain it to me, explain it to people at the time!

https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/67806/early-trains-were-...

(This article says 50, which is still slower than a horse in your link, but I've read 30 in books.)

Re: Why do we assume extraterrestrials might want to visit us?

#236
post #2

>We may be a phenomenon as uninteresting to them as ants are to us; after all, when we’re walking down the sidewalk we rarely if ever examine every ant along our path. Not really the most convincing argument. There are professions that study ants. And I'm sure I'm not the only person on this forum that has a casual interest in observing ants. Pretty sure aliens would still be interested in us even if we were as primi…

Even more common than those who study ants? Exterminators, ant eaters, and kids who stomp on ants for fun. I don't like our chances...

Re: Why do we assume extraterrestrials might want to visit us?

#237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We might not be unique in those senses. If DNA and carbon based life is the standard then we are likely more similar to most life in the universe even if we have small differences in physiology or culture. We don’t share a direct biological origin but we are still made of the same stuff, probably originated under very similar conditions, etc. Unique forms of life likely develop under equally rare conditions in exotic…

I disagree that Aliens even if we share the exact same building blocks would look similar to us. For example even for planets that would be habitable for us would have minor differences in atmospheric pressure, gravity, the types of radiation their star produces would result in drastically different evolutionary paths. Also even if there was a clone of our solar system evolution would be random and the life would loo…

Every snowflake is unique [1]. That doesn't mean you study every snowflake that means you study the system that makes snowflakes.

[1] https://science.howstuffworks.com/nature/climate-weather/atm...

Re: Why do we assume extraterrestrials might want to visit us?

#238
post #29
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is that we're one of (large number) of ant colonies and there's nothing particularly interesting about us vs. any other ant colony. Even if ETs study ants generally, there's nothing unique about us to give us a greater than 1/(large number) chance of being studied.

This. And to add my own expansion to this, the number of ants studied by humans is effectively zero. First, out of all the ant biomass, humans have only seen a very, very tiny amount. Ants are so numerous, and so ubiquitous, Google claims 10 billion billion. Yet this number seems incredibly low, for apparently (wikipedia) some ant colonies have 100s of millions of workers. Regardless, as a human, can you imagine tryi…

You just made me feel a little sorry for all those millions of ants who get back to their colonies and get ostracized for wild stories of giant aliens stomping on their brothers and lighting them on fire with concentrated beams of light.

On the bright side, their version of "Ancient Aliens" is probably a lot more factual and based in reality.

Re: Why do we assume extraterrestrials might want to visit us?

#239
post #3
post #2

>We may be a phenomenon as uninteresting to them as ants are to us; after all, when we’re walking down the sidewalk we rarely if ever examine every ant along our path. Not really the most convincing argument. There are professions that study ants. And I'm sure I'm not the only person on this forum that has a casual interest in observing ants. Pretty sure aliens would still be interested in us even if we were as primi…

Ants are interesting because of the complex behavioral systems emerging from their comparatively simple biological systems, reminiscent of the game of life. Seeing the insane complexity of the human condition (look at the amount of scientific disciplines we come up with) and thinking "nay, this won't be interesting to a higher mind" feels awfully dismissive. sure, depending on the leap of sophistication we may appear…

I seriously doubt the human condition seems complex to a species that went through this stage a billion years ago.

Or even a million years ago.

If we ever invent a time machine I doubt we'd learn much from humans of 10,000 years ago. There would be some surprises for historians and archaeologists, but we certainly wouldn't treat them as cultural or technological equals.

So the horizon of interest where an encounter would be fascinating and worth the time and effort but not devastatingly disruptive to either side is probably only a few millennia.

But let's call it +/- 10k years, to be generous.

Compare with the age of the universe, or even of the galaxy. It's really not a big proportion of the available time.

Re: Why do we assume extraterrestrials might want to visit us?

#240

I disagree with the author's statement that the Fermi paradox is "pretentious" because it assumes we have cosmic significance. I think a better word for that is "presumptuous", but pedantry aside, I don't believe the Fermi paradox ever says anything about what aliens think of humans. It asks why there isn't more evidence of aliens anywhere we've ever looked, not about why aliens haven't come to ask us for our wisdom…

I would also like to add that Fermi’s paradox doesn’t assume humans are interesting, it just assumed probes are cheap. If probes can easily and cheaply be made to cover the galaxy (and we know that this is possible even without major breakthroughs), aliens don’t need to be excited about us to visit the neighborhood.

If aliens sent a probe to earth 1 million years ago, we'd have no way of knowing. Even if such a probe weren't destroyed or buried over that immense time span, it could be anywhere and we would have no way of knowing what to look for. Even if we were probed just a few centuries ago we'd likely be unaware - it would be quite serendipitous for an alien civilization to just happen to launch a probe such that it arrives within decades of us becoming capable of global monitoring.

It's not enough to probe every planet in the galaxy, they would have to repeatedly probe every planet in the galaxy every few centuries for us to expect to find such a probe. For how many millenia would you keep sending probes to the same backwater before you knew all you needed to know?

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