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Intel Problems

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Re: Intel Problems

#71

Post by BenoitEssiambre »

ashtonkem wrote: post #10

I think one day we’re going to wake up and discover that AWS mostly runs on Graviton (ARM) and not x86. And on that day intel’s troubles will go from future to present. My standing theory is that the m1 will accelerate it. Obviously all the wholly managed AWS services (Dynamo, Kinesis, S3, etc.) can change over silently, but the issue is EC2. I have a MBP, as do all of my engineers. Within a few years all of these ma…

Yeah and I assume we are going to see Graviton/Amazon linux based notebooks any day now.

Re: Intel Problems

#72

Post by stefan_ »

klelatti wrote: post #12

Feel this piece ducks one of the most important questions - what is the future and value of x86 to Intel? For a long time x86 was one half of the moat but it feels like that moat is close to crumbling. Once that happens the value of the design part of the business will be much, much lower - especially if they have to compete with an on form AMD. Can they innovate their way out of this? Doesn't look entirely promising…

Why are people so hung up about the x86 thing? ARM continues to be sold on because everyone has now understood they don't really matter; they are not driving the innovations, they were simply the springboard for the Apples, Qualcomms and Amazons to drive their own processor designs, and they are not setup to profit from that. ARMs reference design isn't competitive, the M1 is.

Instruction set architecture at this point is a bikeshed debate, it's certainly not what is holding Intel back.

Re: Intel Problems

#73

Post by moonbug »

api wrote: post #45
dogma1138 wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At that point if it will be trouble for Intel it would be a death sentence for AMD... Intel has fabs, yes it’s what maybe holding them back atm but it also a big factor in what maintains their value. If x86 dies and neither Intel nor AMD pivot in time Intel can become a fab company they already offer these services, yes no where near the scale of say TSMC but they have a massive portfolio of fabs and their fabs are l…

How hard would it be for AMD to make an ARM64 based partly on the IP of the Zen architecture? Seems like AMD could equal or beat M1 if they wanted.

"Seattle". tried it, couldn't meet perf targets, canned it.

Re: Intel Problems

#74

Post by darig »

If you want to write an article about how your article website has matured, maybe start with proofreading the first sentence.

Re: Intel Problems

#75

Post by yjftsjthsd-h »

klelatti wrote: post #57
mhh__ wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The likelihood of Intel moving to ARM is probably nil. They have enough software to drag whatever ISA they choose with them, whereas AMD bringing up an ARM core could be fairly herculean as they have to convince their customers to not only buy their new chip but also trust AMD with a bunch of either missing or brand new software.

The days when Intel could single handedly successfully introduce a new (incompatible) ISA are long gone (if it ever could). I expect they will stick with x86 for as long as possible.

> The days when Intel could single handedly successfully introduce a new (incompatible) ISA are long gone (if it ever could).

Given itanium, I'd say they never could (although that could have been a fluke of that specific design)

Re: Intel Problems

#76

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

oldgradstudent wrote: post #56
dogma1138 wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At that point if it will be trouble for Intel it would be a death sentence for AMD... Intel has fabs, yes it’s what maybe holding them back atm but it also a big factor in what maintains their value. If x86 dies and neither Intel nor AMD pivot in time Intel can become a fab company they already offer these services, yes no where near the scale of say TSMC but they have a massive portfolio of fabs and their fabs are l…

> Intel can become a fab company Not unless they catch up with TSMC in process technology. Otherwise, they become an uncompetitive foundry.

The point is Intel can't compete as a fab or as a design house.

It's doubtful if Intel would have been able to design an equivalent to the M1, even with access to TSMC's 5nm process and an ARM license.

Which suggests there's no point in throwing money at Intel because the management culture ("management debt") itself is no longer competitive.

It would take a genius CEO to fix this, and it's not obvious that CEO exists anywhere in the industry.

Re: Intel Problems

#77

Post by moonbug »

totalZero wrote: post #15
ENOTTY wrote: post #3

Contrary to the article, AMD is not yet shipping 5nm in volume. (Rumors point to Zen 4 later in 2021.) Additionally, Intel works with ASML and other similar suppliers. Intel even owns a chunk of ASML.

I looked up Canon's and Nikon's lithography numbers yesterday and was shocked to see that they barely make any money off their lithography businesses, considering that both companies make DUV machinery. Although they don't have the street cred of ASML, they are important because (A) there's a shortage, and (B) the demand side of the machinery market needs to foster competition in order to keep ASML from gouging its c…

they'll still be depreciating the newer fabs.

Re: Intel Problems

#79

Post by JumpCrisscross »

> a federal subsidy program should operate as a purchase guarantee: the U.S. will buy A amount of U.S.-produced 5nm processors for B price; C amount of U.S. produced 3nm processors for D price; E amount of U.S. produced 2nm processors for F price; etc.

I really like this concept, though I’d advocate for a straight subsidy (sales of American-made chips to a U.S.-registered and based buyer get $ credit, paid directly to the supplier and buyer, on proof of sale and proof of purchase) given the logistical issues of the U.S. government having a stockpile of cutting-edge chips it can’t dump on the market.

Re: Intel Problems

#80

Post by 11thEarlOfMar »

A major incentive for the US government to get involved is touched on. Not only is Taiwan 'just off the coast' from China, China is coming for it and intends to assimilate Taiwan back into China just as Hong Kong and Macau have been.

At that point, the only sustainable leverage the rest of the world would have in chip technology would be ASML.

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