Intel Problems

Perhaps now the "Why do people obsess over manufacturing?" question that many tech workers ask when other US industries were decimated will become a bit less quizzical.

Well I got down to the part where the author said that AMD never threatened Intel in the data center market and I closed the tab. AMD won entire generations of data center orders while Intel was flailing with Itanium and NetBurst.

Totally reasonable argument, and I think most would be better off with an independent, US-based foundry.

Unfortunately, I doubt that the US government functions well enough at this point to recognize the threat and overcome the influence Intel's money would wield against the effort.

> This is why Intel needs to be split in two. Yes, integrating design and manufacturing was the foundation of Intel’s moat for decades, but that integration has become a straight-jacket for both sides of the business. Intel’s designs are held back by the company’s struggles in manufacturing, while its manufacturing has an incentive problem.

The only comparable data point says that this is a terrible idea. AMD spun out GlobalFoundries after a deep slide in their valuation, and the stock (as well as the company's reputation) remained in the doldrums for several years after that. Chipmaking is a big business and there are many advantages to vertical integration when both sides of the company function appropriately. If you own the fabs and there is a surge in demand (as we see now at the less extreme end of the lithography spectrum), your designs get preferential treatment.

Intel's problem isn't the structure of the company, it's the execution. Swan was not originally intended as the permanent replacement to Krzanich[0], and it's a bit strange to draw conclusions about whether the company can steer away from the rocks when the new captain isn't even going to take the helm until the middle of next month.

People are viewing Intel's suggestion that it may use TSMC's fabs for some products as a negative for Intel, but I just see it as a way to exert pressure on AMD's gross margin by putting some market demand pressure on the extreme end of the lithography spectrum (despite sustained demand in TSMC's HPC segment, TSMC's 7nm+ and 5nm are not the main driver of current semiconductor shortages).

[0] https://www.engadget.com/2019-01-31-intel-gives-interim-ceo-...

I think one day we’re going to wake up and discover that AWS mostly runs on Graviton (ARM) and not x86. And on that day intel’s troubles will go from future to present.

My standing theory is that the m1 will accelerate it. Obviously all the wholly managed AWS services (Dynamo, Kinesis, S3, etc.) can change over silently, but the issue is EC2. I have a MBP, as do all of my engineers. Within a few years all of these machines will age out and be replaced with m1 powered machines. At that point the idea of developing on ARM and deploying on x86 will be unpleasant, especially since Graviton 2 is already cheaper per compute unit than x86 is for some work loads; imagine what Graviton 3 & 4 will offer.