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Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

nytimes.com

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Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#21

Post by bluekeybox »

carsongross wrote: post #9

Demographics: most crime is committed by groups of young men. Fewer groups of young men, less crime. Also, eventually your civilization collapses. So it's a tradeoff.

You first point is spot on. People spending time previously reserved for leisure and socialization at a computer screen -> fewer young males with enough spare time to organize into gangs. Unless you consider the Anonymous to be a gang.

Not sure about your point on civilization though. Yeah, water is wet, civilizations collapse, etc.

Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#22

Post by muhfuhkuh »

nodata wrote: post #4
PaintBucket wrote: post #3

I blame video games.

I see you're getting downvotes, but it would be interesting if distractions do lead to a decrease in crime.

The modern interpretation of "bread and circuses": Subsidized food and broadband ubiquity with 24/7 access to whatever stimulates and titillates (sex, violence, a captive audience) can lead to a more sedate populace. Of course, that was one factor that led to the decline of the Roman Empire, too. When you've got a pretty sweet deal going, why risk going to jail and messing it all up?

I'd also like to see if the rise in the access, use and broad social acceptance of pharmaceutical opiates, anti-psychotics, and anti-depressants is also contributing to the decline. You can't really go out and rape and murder if you're hopped up on goofballs.

Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#23

Post by ajju »

jobu wrote: post #12
ajju wrote: post #2

So the Freakonomics guys famously (and controversially) attributed the decline in crime in the 90's to four factors, abortion being the most controversial [1]: – Increased reliance on prisons – Increased number of police – The bursting of the crack bubble – The legalization of abortion The NYT article says that incarceration rates have dropped, which would eliminate the first factor. I wonder how the other 3 correlat…

They've also mentioned the removal of lead from paint and gasoline: http://www.freakonomics.com/2007/07/09/lead-and-crime/

Makes you wonder what harmful things we are being unknowingly exposed to now, that in 20 years will be correlated with serious negative effects on individuals or societies.

Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#25

Post by carsongross »

fourspace wrote: post #17
carsongross wrote: post #9

Demographics: most crime is committed by groups of young men. Fewer groups of young men, less crime. Also, eventually your civilization collapses. So it's a tradeoff.

So right before the end of civilization, there will be a brief period of relative peace?

Well, I'm just going by what I see, and that sounds about right for Japan.

Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#26

Post by ajju »

pragmatic wrote: post #19
chrismealy wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That dude is a hardcore racist. Unless you want his rep rubbing off on you might want to find another reference.

I don't know anything about this guy. However when you say "[t]hat dude is a hardcore racist" you're making a very strong claim about his character. Could you point us to some evidence of your claim?

I don't want to debate about whether some random Internet person I first heard about today is racist, but I was curious enough to Google it and found this wikipedia article describing the author of iSteve.com. It may help provide some context to claims made by the parent.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Sailer

Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#27

Post by dminor »

pragmatic wrote: post #19
chrismealy wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That dude is a hardcore racist. Unless you want his rep rubbing off on you might want to find another reference.

I don't know anything about this guy. However when you say "[t]hat dude is a hardcore racist" you're making a very strong claim about his character. Could you point us to some evidence of your claim?

He has his very own wikipedia page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Sailer

Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#29

Post by scottkduncan »

Goronmon wrote: post #15
steve_b wrote: post #7

"When crime rates go up, the police say it is because they are encouraging more victims to come forward, Mr. Silverman said, 'but when crime goes down, it’s the work of the police.'" I find that sentence really confusing. Does Silverman believe that a decrease in crime is the work of the police, or is he still quoting the police? Also, I'm curious: did I quote the quote correctly?

I think the quote is basically saying that the police claim an increase in crime rates is largely because more victims are coming forward instead of holding back, but when crime rates go down the police say it's because they are reducing crime. It seems to imply that when crime rates go down you could also question whether that's just because fewer victims are coming forward (or whether police are misrepresenting cri…

The main lesson I took from watching The Wire is not to trust any statistics that come from police departments. When performance is evaluated on crime statistics and case closure rates, there are an awful lot of tricks one can pull to make one's performance look better no matter what the underlying trends are.

The second lesson I took from The Wire is that while robbing drug dealers for a living can be lucrative, the risk/reward calculus is slightly problematic.

Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#30

Post by ericb »

hugh3 wrote: post #13
steve_b wrote: post #7

"When crime rates go up, the police say it is because they are encouraging more victims to come forward, Mr. Silverman said, 'but when crime goes down, it’s the work of the police.'" I find that sentence really confusing. Does Silverman believe that a decrease in crime is the work of the police, or is he still quoting the police? Also, I'm curious: did I quote the quote correctly?

He is saying: 'When the crime rates go up, police say "we are encouraging more victims to come forward', and when crime rates go down, police say "this is due to the work of the police" '

Right, in other words, no matter what, they tell a story that is favorable to themselves.

It's like asking a real estate agent about the right time to buy. If prices are rising, it is a great time to buy and make a profit. If prices are falling, it is a great time to buy at a discount and make a profit.

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