Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

nytimes.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

11–20 of 54 posts

Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#11

Post by rubashov »

ajju wrote: post #2

So the Freakonomics guys famously (and controversially) attributed the decline in crime in the 90's to four factors, abortion being the most controversial [1]: – Increased reliance on prisons – Increased number of police – The bursting of the crack bubble – The legalization of abortion The NYT article says that incarceration rates have dropped, which would eliminate the first factor. I wonder how the other 3 correlat…

The abortion correlation has been thoroughly dismantled. There were even straight-up mathematical errors in the initial claimed correlation.

http://www.isteve.com/abortion.htm

That this claim is still so often credulously repeated tells you something about how tied to reality the chattering classes are.

The above referenced Steve Sailer also offers a decent unempirical hypothesis about the decline of crime: Technology has made it way harder to do much bad stuff without getting caught. Cell phones and surveillance cameras and better police tech make crime much riskier than it was.

I also suspect everybody's fatter, older, and more couch-potato than they used to be. Obese slobs with 200 channels are too lazy to go gang-banging.

Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#12

Post by jobu »

ajju wrote: post #2

So the Freakonomics guys famously (and controversially) attributed the decline in crime in the 90's to four factors, abortion being the most controversial [1]: – Increased reliance on prisons – Increased number of police – The bursting of the crack bubble – The legalization of abortion The NYT article says that incarceration rates have dropped, which would eliminate the first factor. I wonder how the other 3 correlat…

They've also mentioned the removal of lead from paint and gasoline:

http://www.freakonomics.com/2007/07/09/lead-and-crime/

Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#13

Post by hugh3 »

steve_b wrote: post #7

"When crime rates go up, the police say it is because they are encouraging more victims to come forward, Mr. Silverman said, 'but when crime goes down, it’s the work of the police.'" I find that sentence really confusing. Does Silverman believe that a decrease in crime is the work of the police, or is he still quoting the police? Also, I'm curious: did I quote the quote correctly?

He is saying:

'When the crime rates go up, police say "we are encouraging more victims to come forward', and when crime rates go down, police say "this is due to the work of the police" '

Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#14

Post by msluyter »

leelin wrote: post #8

I guess Netflix On-Demand, Facebook stalking, and FarmVille do their job in cheaply entertaining us! Seriously though, murders are a distant leap from idle teenage mischief, but I have to believe people commit fewer crimes when they have more to lose. If someone is reasonably happy with his day-to-day life, why risk disrupting it? Now for a really big leap-of-faith: maybe social media opens our eyes to how other peop…

I know that's an off the cuff one-liner, but this idea has gotten some serious consideration. Particularly vis a vis the availability of online porn and the decline in rape. For example, the paper "Porn Up, Rape Down":

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=913013

(Note, this idea is not uncontroversial.)

Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#15

Post by Goronmon »

steve_b wrote: post #7

"When crime rates go up, the police say it is because they are encouraging more victims to come forward, Mr. Silverman said, 'but when crime goes down, it’s the work of the police.'" I find that sentence really confusing. Does Silverman believe that a decrease in crime is the work of the police, or is he still quoting the police? Also, I'm curious: did I quote the quote correctly?

I think the quote is basically saying that the police claim an increase in crime rates is largely because more victims are coming forward instead of holding back, but when crime rates go down the police say it's because they are reducing crime. It seems to imply that when crime rates go down you could also question whether that's just because fewer victims are coming forward (or whether police are misrepresenting crimes to make the numbers look better).

Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#16

Post by chrismealy »

rubashov wrote: post #11
ajju wrote: post #2

So the Freakonomics guys famously (and controversially) attributed the decline in crime in the 90's to four factors, abortion being the most controversial [1]: – Increased reliance on prisons – Increased number of police – The bursting of the crack bubble – The legalization of abortion The NYT article says that incarceration rates have dropped, which would eliminate the first factor. I wonder how the other 3 correlat…

The abortion correlation has been thoroughly dismantled. There were even straight-up mathematical errors in the initial claimed correlation. http://www.isteve.com/abortion.htm That this claim is still so often credulously repeated tells you something about how tied to reality the chattering classes are. The above referenced Steve Sailer also offers a decent unempirical hypothesis about the decline of crime: Technolog…

That dude is a hardcore racist. Unless you want his rep rubbing off on you might want to find another reference.

Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#17

Post by fourspace »

carsongross wrote: post #9

Demographics: most crime is committed by groups of young men. Fewer groups of young men, less crime. Also, eventually your civilization collapses. So it's a tradeoff.

So right before the end of civilization, there will be a brief period of relative peace?

Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#18

Post by jobu »

PaintBucket wrote: post #10
nodata wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see you're getting downvotes, but it would be interesting if distractions do lead to a decrease in crime.

I guess I should have written more if I wanted to be taken seriously. Crime, like everything else, takes time. If you play video games 4 hours a day, that's 4 hours a day that you are neither able to shoot people, nor are you outside to be shot. Given that the demos likely to commit crimes and play video games overlap so strongly, this has to be considered.

Excellent point, but I think you could just say cheap electronic entertainment. The Internet, torrents, Netflix, and video games in particular could be a huge factor in the crime rate. They are (relatively) cheap, ubiquitous, and huge time sinks.

Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#19

Post by pragmatic »

chrismealy wrote: post #16
rubashov wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The abortion correlation has been thoroughly dismantled. There were even straight-up mathematical errors in the initial claimed correlation. http://www.isteve.com/abortion.htm That this claim is still so often credulously repeated tells you something about how tied to reality the chattering classes are. The above referenced Steve Sailer also offers a decent unempirical hypothesis about the decline of crime: Technolog…

That dude is a hardcore racist. Unless you want his rep rubbing off on you might want to find another reference.

I don't know anything about this guy. However when you say "[t]hat dude is a hardcore racist" you're making a very strong claim about his character.

Could you point us to some evidence of your claim?

Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#20

Post by hencq »

PaintBucket wrote: post #10
nodata wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see you're getting downvotes, but it would be interesting if distractions do lead to a decrease in crime.

I guess I should have written more if I wanted to be taken seriously. Crime, like everything else, takes time. If you play video games 4 hours a day, that's 4 hours a day that you are neither able to shoot people, nor are you outside to be shot. Given that the demos likely to commit crimes and play video games overlap so strongly, this has to be considered.

Good point. The sad thing is of course that if you were able to show a clear correlation between (violent) video games and criminals, the most probable reaction would be to ban these games.
Post reply on HN