Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

epsilontheory.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

181–190 of 206 posts

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#181

Post by dragonwriter »

School-Cotton wrote: post #178
ryandrake wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s pretty simple to me: I like being alive and want to continue living. I’m old, but not “will probably die next year” old, and I’m out of shape. I have a family and a kid who wants to keep her daddy around. The economy will recover. People will get back to working and shopping later. What we can’t do yet is come back from the dead.

> People will get back to working and shopping later. Yes, but... We all have a small finite number of years on this earth, and even fewer when we're young. I'll never get 2020 back, and who knows how much of how many people's lives will be lived in poverty and other forms of misery because of the economic destruction we've opted into to slow the spread of the virus. Would you tell someone condemned to a prison term…

> And who knows how much of how many people’s lives will be lived in poverty and other forms of misery because of the economic destruction we’ve opted into to slow the spread of the virus.

Plenty of less-rich countries took much stronger steps to prevent economic destruction even with stronger control measures than the US took.

We didn’t opt into poverty/misery to slow the spread of the virus, we opted into it because the federal administration wanted to use the pain to generate opposition to slowing the spread of the virus.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#182

Post by flukus »

drcross wrote: post #100

I'm Irish in Ireland, I've been following the matter closely. Ireland had one of the strictest lockdowns in most of Europe since March, no pubs, nightclubs, limited restaurants, churches, limited sports, 5km travel restrictions were on and off. We masked up early and our national broadcaster was constantly warning everyone non-stop. Schools were open however. We were the poster boy for lockdown success up until at le…

> The WHO warns that lockdown should only be treated as a last resort, to truly flatten the curve and no more. We ignored that.

Countries that have eliminated the virus have ignored this for good results. Some like us here in Melbourne have used lockdowns to eliminate the virus, others like New Zealand have used them as a first resort to contain outbreaks. Because we eliminated it we're now back to (mostly) normal, we don't have young people sacrificing anything, we have kids in school, we have large sporting events and it's not coming at the cost of everyone's lives. Despite WHO advice most countries that eliminated it have also kept borders mostly shut.

Ireland is a tragedy because the were so close to elimination but never took those final steps to eliminate it and keep it out. The worlds tragedy is that they gave up on elimination, it would have been much cheaper and less impactful than rolling lockdowns.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#183

Post by candiodari »

8note wrote: post #110
scarmig wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> ...the CDC models project that 70 MILLION Americans have already gotten sick with symptomatic Covid, but decided to just write it off as a bad cold and never got tested... > Why is this hard to believe? I don't agree with the article more broadly, but it does make the point that 70 million prior infections isn't consistent with hospitalization numbers over the summer vs now. The only way I can reconcile those numb…

There's another assumption you can add - that some people are more susceptible than others. A good portion of hospitalizations and deaths have been the elderly via nursing homes. If those have become safer, it'd make sense that we can have more cases without heavily increasing hospitalizations

They have become safer by adapting ... and by having the most vulnerable filtered out by earlier waves.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#184

Post by drcross »

flukus wrote: post #182
drcross wrote: post #100

I'm Irish in Ireland, I've been following the matter closely. Ireland had one of the strictest lockdowns in most of Europe since March, no pubs, nightclubs, limited restaurants, churches, limited sports, 5km travel restrictions were on and off. We masked up early and our national broadcaster was constantly warning everyone non-stop. Schools were open however. We were the poster boy for lockdown success up until at le…

> The WHO warns that lockdown should only be treated as a last resort, to truly flatten the curve and no more. We ignored that. Countries that have eliminated the virus have ignored this for good results. Some like us here in Melbourne have used lockdowns to eliminate the virus, others like New Zealand have used them as a first resort to contain outbreaks. Because we eliminated it we're now back to (mostly) normal, w…

It's summer in the southern hemisphere and don't say you got rid of sars2 in your winter, you didn't, and there's still cases recently.

Let my comment be a warning that you might be in for a world of hurt in the next few months as you go into winter. You have to remain globally isolated until the virus is completely eradicated.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#185

Post by drcross »

scsilver wrote: post #165
drcross wrote: post #100

I'm Irish in Ireland, I've been following the matter closely. Ireland had one of the strictest lockdowns in most of Europe since March, no pubs, nightclubs, limited restaurants, churches, limited sports, 5km travel restrictions were on and off. We masked up early and our national broadcaster was constantly warning everyone non-stop. Schools were open however. We were the poster boy for lockdown success up until at le…

Do you have opinions about 1. holding the damn until the vaccine gets deployed 2. What are your concerns if any about the long term illnesses and organ damage in younger covid afflicted patients. I agree with your points except for those two key considerations. Because of this, I am for continuing lockdowns and distancing until the vaccine and refuse to potentially subject myself to life long debilitation when waitin…

Sure, wait for a vaccine but I certainly won't be taking it as I can run a 5km in 23 minutes, in the gym five days a week when it's not shut down, I eat well and I take vitamin D. I would only recommend a vaccine to those aged between 65 and 80. Below that age and you don't need it, above that age and it's very risky. There were only 800 people above 70 on the pfizer trials, when that cohort is the high risk for this.

2. You are referring to post covid syndrome, it's well known and not remarkable for Sars2. Weird things happen from viral respiratory infections all the time, covid is no different. Up to the age of 38 or so the seasonal flu has a higher mortality rate. You have a higher chance of dying in a car crash up to the age of 30. I don't have the sources here but they are easily found. After reading the literature extensively on this subject the portrayal of the risk is blown far out of proportion in the media.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#186

Post by drcross »

discreteevent wrote: post #176
drcross wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. I think it's a combination of factors- The people who are currently on a good WFH salary are seeing their savings grow thinking they are doing well for themselves because soon they will buy a house but what they don't realise is that eventually they will have to pay for the 400k people on the pandemic unemployment payment, the 5 billion that was lost this year in tourism, the 10 million we are spending weekl…

They may not be stung for the tax. Zero interest loans with an infinite term are effectively being granted by the ECB.

Yeah I agree, but on that topic I think we're heading into completely unchartered territory with an event horizon beyond which I cannot see, the only wisdom I have that might prepare us for what might unfold is- "there's no such thing as a free lunch" and "there's a time when you have to pay the Piper".

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#187

Post by drcross »

ryandrake wrote: post #162
salmon30salmon wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you. I honestly believe that there is a non-trivial percentage of the population that _likes_ the COVID world and wants to keep it going as long as possible. Some may like working remotely, others may like the wider acceptance of meal and grocery delivery, others may prefer the reduction in greenhouse gases. That is the only way I can rationalize the insistence of lockdowns here on HN and elsewhere. Either that…

It’s pretty simple to me: I like being alive and want to continue living. I’m old, but not “will probably die next year” old, and I’m out of shape. I have a family and a kid who wants to keep her daddy around. The economy will recover. People will get back to working and shopping later. What we can’t do yet is come back from the dead.

I think it's selfish that you'd prefer to remain unfit and see a generation of children your daughter's age lose a year of socialising and education than to choose to isolate yourself and let them live their lives if you really were so worried about a disease with a average IFR of .05%. It's a crab in a bucket mentality.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#188

Post by flukus »

drcross wrote: post #184
flukus wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The WHO warns that lockdown should only be treated as a last resort, to truly flatten the curve and no more. We ignored that. Countries that have eliminated the virus have ignored this for good results. Some like us here in Melbourne have used lockdowns to eliminate the virus, others like New Zealand have used them as a first resort to contain outbreaks. Because we eliminated it we're now back to (mostly) normal, w…

It's summer in the southern hemisphere and don't say you got rid of sars2 in your winter, you didn't, and there's still cases recently. Let my comment be a warning that you might be in for a world of hurt in the next few months as you go into winter. You have to remain globally isolated until the virus is completely eradicated.

> It's summer in the southern hemisphere and don't say you got rid of sars2 in your winter, you didn't

Victoria had a large outbreak in winter, a (way too late) lockdown bought it under control. New Zealand had an outbreak in winter and a brief lockdown bought it back under control. I agree winter is hard mode, but we were 6 months ahead of the world in that regard, we were the warning that was ignored, we found it the hard way that soft lockdowns don't work in winter.

> and there's still cases recently.

Bought back from overseas, unfortunately flight crew are looking like a major vector. Current cases are low enough that good contact tracing is probably enough to keep on top of it, it's already stamped out a minor outbreak in Victoria and NSW just hit zero cases and will hopefully stay there.

> You have to remain globally isolated until the virus is completely eradicated.

We'll be globally isolated until enough people are vaccinated that exponential spread isn't possible. This is preferable to being personally isolated while a pandemic rages.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#189

Post by ryandrake »

dragonwriter wrote: post #181
School-Cotton wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People will get back to working and shopping later. Yes, but... We all have a small finite number of years on this earth, and even fewer when we're young. I'll never get 2020 back, and who knows how much of how many people's lives will be lived in poverty and other forms of misery because of the economic destruction we've opted into to slow the spread of the virus. Would you tell someone condemned to a prison term…

> And who knows how much of how many people’s lives will be lived in poverty and other forms of misery because of the economic destruction we’ve opted into to slow the spread of the virus. Plenty of less-rich countries took much stronger steps to prevent economic destruction even with stronger control measures than the US took. We didn’t opt into poverty/misery to slow the spread of the virus, we opted into it becaus…

We could have 1. Done a real lockdown, with strict, nationwide enforcement, trashing the economy for a few months but beating the disease. Or 2. Done nothing and saved the economy, shouldering massive loss of life as the virus ran unopposed through the population.

But, no, we somehow managed to do the worst of both worlds: 3. we implemented uncoordinated, half-assed business closures and widely-ignored “stay-at-home” schemes which both trashed the economy and resulted in widespread death. Great job!

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#190

Post by ryandrake »

drcross wrote: post #187
ryandrake wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s pretty simple to me: I like being alive and want to continue living. I’m old, but not “will probably die next year” old, and I’m out of shape. I have a family and a kid who wants to keep her daddy around. The economy will recover. People will get back to working and shopping later. What we can’t do yet is come back from the dead.

I think it's selfish that you'd prefer to remain unfit and see a generation of children your daughter's age lose a year of socialising and education than to choose to isolate yourself and let them live their lives if you really were so worried about a disease with a average IFR of .05%. It's a crab in a bucket mentality.

Part of the benefit of living in a civilized society is that civilized people don’t throw entire demographics to their death for the convenience of others. We are supposed to have the decency to make sacrifices for the benefit of the greater good, but our ability to do this seems to be quickly disappearing.

I’m really sorry my kid can’t go on play dates for a year, because it helps save other people’s lives. I also feel sorry that some people don’t have the empathy to understand why we need to make that trade-off. We have really lost our way as a culture if we really think grandma should die so the rest of us can live our normal lives.

Imagine we had your attitude during world war 2. “I’m not gonna go rivet airplanes or ration food because I have freedom and I want to live my life!!”

Post reply on HN