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I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

epsilontheory.com

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Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#111

I'm Irish in Ireland, I've been following the matter closely. Ireland had one of the strictest lockdowns in most of Europe since March, no pubs, nightclubs, limited restaurants, churches, limited sports, 5km travel restrictions were on and off. We masked up early and our national broadcaster was constantly warning everyone non-stop. Schools were open however. We were the poster boy for lockdown success up until at le…

Thank you. I honestly believe that there is a non-trivial percentage of the population that _likes_ the COVID world and wants to keep it going as long as possible. Some may like working remotely, others may like the wider acceptance of meal and grocery delivery, others may prefer the reduction in greenhouse gases. That is the only way I can rationalize the insistence of lockdowns here on HN and elsewhere.

Either that or COVID is another social issue that is being exploited by nefarious actors to divide western nations.

Or both.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#112
A point not many people are raising is its winter in the northern hemisphere, so naturally the R0 will increase. Why this new strain is so prevalent? My personal opinion is since schools opened up they have acted as the main vector. Going undetected for an extended period, I read children are 'being hit the hardest' ie their is a lot more asymptomatic children. The latter point is just conjecture but the note on winter I do think has merit.

Overtime the virus will be less deadly to all age groups and likely become another common cold virus. I read a article in hn the other day talking about how all cold virus might have started as pandemics.

Based in history pandemics last 18 months. Two winters and one summer. But that is during natural spread rather than nation wide lockdown.

While I'm ranting, I believe masks were always a vector to get people the smallest viral dose. Have you seen anyone with a mask, they touch it every few seconds and even reuse it. I remember back 12months ago I was panning on wearing different clothes inside from outside, having a buffer area in my house and having a mask cycle were they spend 3 days in the suns UV.

I don't think the virus will get as much news, a important catalyst is when their is government mandate of the pcr cycle number. If they reduce it they can stimulate low infection numbers.

In my personal opinion mass testing was the biggest mistake, after it hit large community spread they should have only tested in hospitals for research purposes and held all data at a national security level for 10 years.

People are just not mentally able to deal with such situation, look at social media for an example their is so much pure rage in the world. Even in my county NZ the anger on social media is shocking. Its the same logic that you should not tell people about aliens (in movies) because people as a group can not take the stress.

We on HN are a bad sample, we are probably more likely to be logical. Where most people would have strong emotions.

I read this title as "Ireland events" as social unrest. I know this is not the subject, but its equally vaild, given what we have witnessed over the last year.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#113
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t this last bit in some sense a good thing? Representative government changing policies to reflect a shift in the population’s preference after ten months of dealing with these restrictions?

Representative government caving to demands when the demands are terrible, like in this case, is not a good thing. In that moment what is needed is enough guts to see the measures through and fend interest groups off. Loss of leadership and movement towards "the customer is king" politics is responsible for a lot of mistakes in the response to this virus.

Hindsight is 10/10.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#114
> An “Ireland Event” outbreak, with draconian shutdowns, an unemployment shock and small business bankruptcies, would be massively deflationary.

Close your positions or reduce it today. Do it now. Don't wait until the shit hits the fan.

Sell, reduce or hedge. You've been warned.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#115

I feel like everyone continues to assume COVID-19 infection has an exponential curve but it's been shown by Nobel prize winner Michael Levitt that it actually follows a Gompertz function more accurately. Not only that but the WHO recently released a statement saying that PCR testing for COVID-19 is not suitable as it detects many forms of respiratory problems including the common cold. I feel like the author of this…

I wouldn't trust a PhD in literature to tell me about epidemiology, I'm disinclined to trust a chemist either.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#116
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t this last bit in some sense a good thing? Representative government changing policies to reflect a shift in the population’s preference after ten months of dealing with these restrictions?

Representative government caving to demands when the demands are terrible, like in this case, is not a good thing. In that moment what is needed is enough guts to see the measures through and fend interest groups off. Loss of leadership and movement towards "the customer is king" politics is responsible for a lot of mistakes in the response to this virus.

If we believe in democracy, we necessarily must believe that the crowd - the mob, if you're feeling less generous - is better at making decisions than any small group of people.

Which means believing that it's better to implement a terrible but popular decision than to override the will of the people.

So in this case, IF the majority supported lifting restrictions (and I'm not Irish so I have no idea what the public sentiment was), then the politicians did the right thing: They obeyed the will of the people.

Which also means that in this case, the people of Ireland f'd up and need to take responsibility for that, rather than blame the politicians who simply implemented their will.

We can't have it both ways. We can't demand a government of the people, by the people, for the people, and also let ourselves off the hook whenever our collective decisions suck.

Maybe we, the people, suck at governing in a crisis.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought the exact same thing- "The Ireland Event" being the Catholic-Protestant conflict in the latter part of the 20th century

I was hoping it involved Guinness myself, or better yet Smithwick's. I'd be okay with multiple events like that.

I love your humour during these times, also thought by "Ireland Event" he was talking about "The Troubles" coming to America and clicked but I guess we have different stereotypical images of Irish folks.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#118
post #89

The author’s argument for why it’s implausible that a lot of people don’t get tested is literally “c’mon, man.” That not satisfying to me. I was sick for a few days over the summer. Was it a mild case of Covid? I don’t know, or care. Why should I get tested when that information will change literally nothing about my life?

1. It's not literally "c'mon man" it's "look at these graphs, then 'c'mon, man'." 2. They stipulate that lots of people didn't get tested, but believe it to be an order of magnitude less than the CDC estimates.

I have no trouble believing the 3x rate given that I believe I had Covid in April and was steadfastly refused a test, and later in November, after traveling, was refused testing once more. There still isn't sufficient testing capacity for everyone who wants one, and even then, not everyone who is sick wants a test.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#119

I'm Irish in Ireland, I've been following the matter closely. Ireland had one of the strictest lockdowns in most of Europe since March, no pubs, nightclubs, limited restaurants, churches, limited sports, 5km travel restrictions were on and off. We masked up early and our national broadcaster was constantly warning everyone non-stop. Schools were open however. We were the poster boy for lockdown success up until at le…

Thank you. I honestly believe that there is a non-trivial percentage of the population that _likes_ the COVID world and wants to keep it going as long as possible. Some may like working remotely, others may like the wider acceptance of meal and grocery delivery, others may prefer the reduction in greenhouse gases. That is the only way I can rationalize the insistence of lockdowns here on HN and elsewhere. Either that…

I would liken it to missing a day at the gym. Even if you regularly work out if you start missing 1, 2, 3 days eventually you stop going altogether. The same thing has happened with WFH. People have already gotten used to working at home 100% of the time. Even if COVID was wiped off the face of the Earth there will be a large number of people who have simply gotten into a new routine and will never go back willingly unless if they are forced to.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#120
post #46
post #13

Disclaimer: I'm Irish, working in tech but my hobby that gets me more of a social life is involvement with an Irish political party. The new variant accounted for 10-25% of these new cases over the period of that spike. The spike happened two weeks after Christmas when lock-down restrictions were lifted, as planned in October, so people could have a respite after 9 months of all this. Did the government misjudge just…

Also Irish. +1 on your assessment here. The virulent strain narrative was peddled by the Irish government who went against medical advice and tried to deflect blame. The evidence doesn’t support the narrative. I think the COVID-fatigue angle is quite interesting though. As critical as I am of the government they were under a lot of pressure from the populous to provide some sort of respite.

Also Irish. 100% agree with the both of you. I have a limited amount of sympathy for the government as Christmas is hugely culturally significant, but I think they did a poor job (especially the handwaving over flights from abroad that can be paraphrased as "we recommend that people don't come home for Christmas unless they feel they really need to") and what we're seeing now is largely CYA.
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