Live data from Hacker News

Moderna is announcing three new vaccine programs

investors.modernatx.com

151–160 of 236 posts

Re: Moderna is announcing three new vaccine programs

#151

One of these is for the little known Nipah virus. This virus is really scary. Like the Coronavirus, it jumps to humans from bats. Unlike the Coronavirus, it is extremely lethal. In the last outbreak, in 2018 [1], the case fatality rate was 89%. Fortunately, there were only 19 cases (17 died). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Nipah_virus_outbreak_in_K...

Is my understanding correct that a virus so deadly would quickly peter out because it kills its hosts before it can spread?

Re: Moderna is announcing three new vaccine programs

#152

One of these is for the little known Nipah virus. This virus is really scary. Like the Coronavirus, it jumps to humans from bats. Unlike the Coronavirus, it is extremely lethal. In the last outbreak, in 2018 [1], the case fatality rate was 89%. Fortunately, there were only 19 cases (17 died). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Nipah_virus_outbreak_in_K...

Is my understanding correct that a virus so deadly would quickly peter out because it kills its hosts before it can spread?

That's my understanding as well. The problem, though, is that the virus doesn't completely peter out because it survives in the bats. There is a possibility a mutation makes the virus less lethal, in which case it could cause much more problems when it jumps again from bat to human. Maybe next year, maybe in a hundred years, maybe never.

Disclaimer: I'm absolutely no expert. The above is only my best guess.

Re: Moderna is announcing three new vaccine programs

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If chronic Lyme illness is caused by lingering bacteria hidding in the body's tissues, the real way to eliminate any doubts about alternate causes is precisely to get a Lyme vaccine. Then, if the symptoms persist, we could easily deduce that the cause is other. Except that one thing... the chronic Lyme could very well caused by an autoimmune side-effect (this is among the most serious explanations), in which case I d…

I don't think that's a very scientific approach as a vaccine may have other effects on the symptoms. Finding lingering bacteria would be the right call. Autopsy or biopsy. And then get better testing, less "false positive". With no specific (set of) symptoms, symptom based evidence seems inherently weak.

Bacteria is latent. CFS is not not strep throat. Generally body-wide immune dysfunction is present.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19393200/

Re: Moderna is announcing three new vaccine programs

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. I wonder about the trolley problem that is medical testing requirements. It seems like we, as a society, would tend to never want to pull the lever to save more at the cost of risking a few. Social and contractual liability makes it a bad trade. Acceptable risk is very low which can, paradoxically, cause more death and discomfort. It would be nice to see a greater awareness of the tradeoffs. These things tend…

Theoretical question here: Do you want to be the one sacrificial lamb that dies, in order for the rest of us to live? If you want to play Jesus here, then I’m sure the rest of society will support you.

It isn't that stark though. There are current policy choices that result in statistical deaths. Other policy choices are quite likely to result in fewer statistical deaths, but you've somehow decided that the current policy is not even up for discussion.

Re: Moderna is announcing three new vaccine programs

#155
post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that's a very scientific approach as a vaccine may have other effects on the symptoms. Finding lingering bacteria would be the right call. Autopsy or biopsy. And then get better testing, less "false positive". With no specific (set of) symptoms, symptom based evidence seems inherently weak.

Bacteria is latent. CFS is not not strep throat. Generally body-wide immune dysfunction is present. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19393200/

This potential role of vitamin D is very exciting!

Re: Moderna is announcing three new vaccine programs

#156
post #78

Very cool! Also I’d hope to see Lyme in the mix. It’s so pervasive and creates all kinds of weird dietary and nervous system issues.

>It’s so pervasive and creates all kinds of weird dietary and nervous system issues. I am not an expert, but I think it would be amiss to omit the Lyme disease controversy with these statements. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4477530/ Lyme disease has a simple antibiotic treatment. The Lyme serology test has high false-positive rate. There might be many people who believe they have Lyme disease therefor…

This is incorrect. Your link is from 2016. In the last few years several studies have brought to light that persister Lyme is real and very hard to eradicate with standard antibiotics. Even the CDC is starting to change their tune as their website now mentions persister Lyme as a viable theory.

An example: https://www.jhsph.edu/news/news-releases/2019/three-antibiot...

Re: Moderna is announcing three new vaccine programs

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's very odd that dogs can get vaccinated for Lyme but not humans...

Agreed. I wonder about the trolley problem that is medical testing requirements. It seems like we, as a society, would tend to never want to pull the lever to save more at the cost of risking a few. Social and contractual liability makes it a bad trade. Acceptable risk is very low which can, paradoxically, cause more death and discomfort. It would be nice to see a greater awareness of the tradeoffs. These things tend…

A problem is it's not really the trolly problem because the punishments if things go wrong accrue to different people than the rewards if they go right.

Re: Moderna is announcing three new vaccine programs

#158

One of these is for the little known Nipah virus. This virus is really scary. Like the Coronavirus, it jumps to humans from bats. Unlike the Coronavirus, it is extremely lethal. In the last outbreak, in 2018 [1], the case fatality rate was 89%. Fortunately, there were only 19 cases (17 died). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Nipah_virus_outbreak_in_K...

Is my understanding correct that a virus so deadly would quickly peter out because it kills its hosts before it can spread?

The coronavirus alreay spreads before showing symptoms.

Re: Moderna is announcing three new vaccine programs

#159

One of these is for the little known Nipah virus. This virus is really scary. Like the Coronavirus, it jumps to humans from bats. Unlike the Coronavirus, it is extremely lethal. In the last outbreak, in 2018 [1], the case fatality rate was 89%. Fortunately, there were only 19 cases (17 died). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Nipah_virus_outbreak_in_K...

Is my understanding correct that a virus so deadly would quickly peter out because it kills its hosts before it can spread?

It also depends on how long it stays asymptomatic (so that a host can go around and infect other people before dying) and how well it spreads from host to host, and probably other factors that I don't know about

Re: Moderna is announcing three new vaccine programs

#160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is my understanding correct that a virus so deadly would quickly peter out because it kills its hosts before it can spread?

It also depends on how long it stays asymptomatic (so that a host can go around and infect other people before dying) and how well it spreads from host to host, and probably other factors that I don't know about

AIDS, for instance, also had an extremely high case fatality rate before modern treatment but due to it's slow progression it can spread just fine.
Post reply on HN