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Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

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Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#141

Post by dukeofdoom »

I expect Marshall Law declared within 24 hours. Before impeachment vote. Pelosi asked the military to ignore commands from Trump. They turned her down, and warned this is an act of sedition. So that tells me they are on his side.

I don't think Trump would accept being barred from running in 2024 if the impeachment vote is allowed to go through. This is his only move right now. The national guard is already in the capital.

Booting him off of Twitter and social media, was a plan to disrupt his ability to address the nation, and possible liability around not carrying his address should he win. As I think some TV stations will probably block the emergency address. Trump is also convinced he would win the in person ballot, should a military declare a new election.

Media speaks almost in one voice now, joined by big tech, the left will be controlling almost all the levers of power otherwise. So he has large support in the population to stop that

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#142

Post by undoware »

rblatz wrote: post #91
mrfusion wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most educated people I know seem the most partisan right now and most likely to parrot main stream media talking points. It’s making me question my assumptions about education. On the other hand Im just one data point.

Mainstream media talking points vary from Trump and his family are breaking norms and traditions in a very dangerous way to our country, all the way to the Biden crime family is going to ruin this country. With major undertones of a lot of hurt, anger, and feeling like there is no hope among minorities or rural whites depending on which sources you choose to consume. Both are true, both need addressed. And it’s likel…

I get routinely modded down on this site for pointing out issues that are ostensibly too political, like workplace discrimination.

But on this same site, somoene can literally carry on a discussion echoing the (proven false) propaganda points ("biden crime family"? dear lord) and it stays up without downvote for (checks watch) an hour and counting.

Everything this past week has been a chest x-ray of our collective spirit, and it came back solid white.

This is vastly smaller in degree but not in kind.

Time for some introspection, dear readers.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#143

Post by notahacker »

Barrin92 wrote: post #5

it's an interesting idea, kind of foundation trilogy psychohistory like but it's also in some ways very obvious and hard to disprove at the same time. He gives two generations as the length for instability to dwell up, and if you move that like a sliding window over American history most of the time it'd probably be true depending on your definition of violent upheaval. However if you expand it to other countries I t…

It's also not helped by the graph for the USA the article uses. Sure, you've got three spikes of race-related events at half century intervals, but all the other time series are uncorrelated (and even for race related incidents there's an obvious structural difference between centuries).

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#144

Post by krona »

74d-fe6-2c6 wrote: post #17
inglor_cz wrote: post #2

Turchin's two main ideas are intriguing. a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. b) elite overproduction…

> a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. That's why education is the most important pillar of democracy…

"The road to hell is paved with Ivy League degrees."

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#145

Post by [deleted] »

vladTheInhaler wrote: post #129
strombofulous wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is such a ridiculously uncharitable interpretation of what the person you're replying to said. It makes me feel like I'm on twitter

Alright, why don't you start by explaining what you think they mean by "what we're seeing now", or by "violence done by the students", and how those things are causally linked?

[deleted]

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#146

Post by erichocean »

inglor_cz wrote: post #2

Turchin's two main ideas are intriguing. a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. b) elite overproduction…

> tertiary education complex is at least as influential as the military industrial complex

If you gave me full control (on the sly, so they maintained the role they currently have) of Harvard, Yale, NYT, and WaPo—I wouldn't care who held the Presidency or sat in Congress, and the military is a distant afterthought. All would follow my dictates to the letter and I would be able to entirely transform every aspect of the country.

So who, again, is in power? Votes (and by extension, voters) don't matter because they do not affect actual power. It's kayfabe on a grand scale.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#147

Post by root_axis »

jonhohle wrote: post #126
kaitai wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The best educated voter -- any voter in fact -- can also run for office and transform the party. I dislike the rhetoric you're using that implies the parties are outside and beyond the reach of "normal" citizens. Of course they are institutions with substantial inertia and aims of their own. But as the elections of people as diverse as Cori Bush and Madison Cawthorne and Marjorie Taylor Greene show, it is certainly s…

Have you been involved in a party’s political process? I participated in a primary caucus for a small district and was disgusted by the leadership and how the event was run. No one was heard, whatever the moderator wanted was how the vote turned out, regardless of how the group actually voted. All of the leadership was among the most smarmy, slimy people I’ve ever been in a room with. If you want to run for office, n…

> disillusioned me from any participation in politics and politicians in general.

It's so much easier when the troublemakers show themselves out of the room. Of course, nobody could be blamed for wanting nothing to do with politics, but its only the people who are disgusted by the system that change it.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#148

Post by zarkov99 »

jsmcgd wrote: post #41
inglor_cz wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"That's why education is the most important pillar of democracy. Education is everything. " The kind of people who get into positions of power - well, my impression is that they think they know better. Even if they are aware of the fact that in 1930 someone fucked up, they will not entertain the fact that they themselves might do the same. Also, some events are really complex. You can educate people about the 1929 or…

I think that's why an education has to be broad. A selective education can be tantamount to brainwashing/propaganda. Give the students as many perspectives and hope that they will do something sensible as they process the information; knowing that not all will, but most. I believe that the more perspectives you are aware of, the less likely you are to be dogmatic and extreme in your beliefs and actions. You will be r…

Perspectives are important and so is a humble study of history as way to understand human nature. We are so in love with your technological prowess that we forget it all sits on top of wetware that is very close to what it was 10000 years ago. Recognizing we are driven largely by instinct, some of which we can inhibit some we cannot, would help all of understand what works and what does not in a human society.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#149

Post by PeterStuer »

anewaccount2021 wrote: post #90
kaitai wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The best educated voter -- any voter in fact -- can also run for office and transform the party. I dislike the rhetoric you're using that implies the parties are outside and beyond the reach of "normal" citizens. Of course they are institutions with substantial inertia and aims of their own. But as the elections of people as diverse as Cori Bush and Madison Cawthorne and Marjorie Taylor Greene show, it is certainly s…

You need look no further than the concerted and organized effort to shut-down Bernie Sanders twice, and frankly he isn't even particularly radical. No one you mentioned represents a meaningful threat to the status quo - America has a single ruling class and the Capitol is their museum.

You could also look at the concerted and organized shut-down of Tulsi Gabbard.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#150

Post by jeffbee »

leereeves wrote: post #130
jeffbee wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that really unprecedented? In 2016 Chicago had 60% more homicides than in 2015. Short-term spikes in statistics with small denominators can be expected. In 2015 Baltimore had 63% more homicides than in 2014.

Sure, but the increase in the murder rate in 2020 wasn't a spike in a single city, it was a spike nationwide.

Right, it just doesn't seem that dramatic in context. They are saying a 13% year-over-year bump in the homicide rate is the greatest ever recorded, but there was an 11% bump from 2014-2015 and 10% from 2015 to 2016, according to the FBI UCR. So 13% is the highest but is it really such a shocking figure?
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