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Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

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Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#191

Post by jeffdn »

blackrock wrote: post #184
yyyk wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think blaming Nixon is right. His action arguably made sense at the time, and didn't require sacrificing Taiwan. The US had plenty of time to safely pivot to a different position regarding China/Taiwan (e.g. letting Taiwan get nukes in the 70s-80s; Shifting diplomatic position and recognizing Taiwan right after the Cold War was over; Not allowing Globalization to go so far in the 90s-00s). If the US didn't ta…

> letting Taiwan get nukes in the 70s-80s Giving Taiwan nukes would’ve been a casus belli situation. This would’ve caused China to invade. Damned be the consequences or cost of lives. The same is true today. If America arms Taiwan with too many advanced weapons, then it will also trigger a casus belli event on China’s part. If America couldn’t beat China in North Korea in 1950, when the Chinese were literally fightin…

That’s a pretty disingenuous way to put it — first of all, there were plenty of Soviet fighter aircraft during the Korean War, and the Chinese were not literally arming the bulk of their troops with bows and arrows. Additionally, Korea shares a land border with China, and transport and logistics (such as they were) were thereby greatly simplified.

A war with Taiwan is a completely different story.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#192

Post by perennate »

nsajko wrote: post #130
perennate wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Every place has the right to self determination, but secessionists tend to be treated as criminals. The HK democracy activists are protesting in support of self determination. Those arrested are not "secessionists", and as far as I know, Hong Kong has not left the PRC, so your comparison doesn't really make any sense.

I don't think Bagacrap was discussing Hong Kong at all, but anyway your argument doesn't make much sense, because if someone is "protesting in support of self determination", then they almost surely are really asking for secession.

Parent comment discussed "democracy activists in Hong Kong being rounded up" -- Bagacrap was of course misleadingly labeling those activists as "secessionists", unless you think Bagacrap was referring to the Taiwanese people even though Taiwan is an independent country and has no need for secession beyond a legal formality. On whether these activists are secessionists: their demands focus on advancing democratic elections in Hong Kong while continuing under the "one country two systems" framework, the claim that they are asking for secession is incorrect given that the vast majority of the activists do not want Hong Kong to secede from China.

Edit: see https://www.scmp.com/yp/discover/news/hong-kong/article/3065... which is from a newspaper in China (so even if it is biased, it would be biased towards pro-CCP views). As you can see, these activists want self-determination for Hong Kong, but do not want Hong Kong to leave or secede from China.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#193

Post by perennate »

coryrc wrote: post #96
Rapzid wrote: post #39

It's been time for a long time to stop pretending Taiwan is not a critical ally of the USA and that we would ever allow the CCP to absorb them. They deserve our recognition and support on the international stage.

We're only pretending. Saving face is critical when negotiating in the East. If we can let the mainland save face and it costs us little of importance, why act otherwise? Also, Taiwan itself is not unified. Around a third want to unify with the CCP.

The KMT does not want to eventually re-unify the PRC. They merely want to continue pretending to want to eventually re-unify with the PRC to maintain good economic relations. Because the PRC accounts for 28% of Taiwan's exports and 19% of Taiwan's imports (https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/daily_update_e/tr...).

Really hardly anyone in Taiwan wants to re-unify with the PRC, they have seen the genocide the fascist CCP is committing against the Uighur people in Xinjiang, if the CCP repeats this in Taiwan and exterminates or sterilizes millions of Taiwanese it would be devastating. Nobody wants to bear witness to genocide, but even more so, nobody wants to be a victim to genocide, so supporting re-unification would be senseless.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#194

Post by perennate »

toast0 wrote: post #175
99_00 wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The US military and civilian experts believe that if Taiwan declares independence, Beijing will use its military to take control of Taiwan Taiwan considers its self to be China. What are they going to declare themselves independent from?

Rather than declaring independence, Taiwan could grant independence to mainland China.

Currently PRC pressures Taiwan to maintain the status quo, which is that both the PRC and ROC are different factions of the same country. While Taiwan ending official "claims" to the mainland might be seen by the PRC as slightly less bold than declaring independence, the PRC would likely implement the same damaging economic sanctions and increased military threats, so in this case Taiwan might as well declare independence.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#195

Post by perennate »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #150
verroq wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan (Republic of China) maintains a claim to territory currently occupied by the CCP (People’s republic of China). And vice versa for the CCP.

You mean the KMT that set up after they were kicked out of the mainland and took Taiwan right? They also claim all of (outer) Mongolia and basically whatever the Qing dynasty had when it fell. There CPC doesn’t claim Outer Mongolia and its borders are mostly settled with a few conflicts in India and the SCS.

You are referring to the de jure claims, which Taiwan only maintains due to pressure from the PRC. If Taiwan officially cedes these claims, the PRC would respond with economic sanctions, because the PRC wants Taiwan to continue to pretend it is another faction of the same country still fighting the civil war and not an independent country.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#196

Post by perennate »

fmajid wrote: post #190

Taiwan is the center of the world semiconductor industry and far more critical to the US than Saudi Arabia. It would also be exceedingly difficult to defend from China. There is no point in provoking China into a war we would lose (because China’s military budget has been focused on preventing that for the last 6 decades, whereas ours is scattered across too many objectives) until we have a plan that can succeed.

There is no point in provoking China into a war because it would lead to a nuclear war which would end humanity as we know it. Everyone would lose in any all-on war between two nuclear powers. China has been far more provoking than the US, with Xi Jinping continuing to maintain a 2049 deadline for taking back Taiwan, with force if needed, not to mention cracking down on the pro-democracy party in Hong Kong, which has only inflamed tensions with Taiwan and really won Tsai Ing-wen her second term.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#197

Post by perennate »

pstrateman wrote: post #24
bigpumpkin wrote: post #4

I'm curious why Pompeo is choosing to do this now, rather than a year ago. Only 11 days until the next administration, or is he still thinking about transitioning to a second Trump term?

It forces the Biden administration to either accept the normalization of relations with Taiwan as an independent nation or explicitly take steps to treat them as a piece of the CCP. He's boxing in the next administration.

Or Biden can take no action and continue the status quo. I don't see how it boxes him in at all. The status quo would be fine if Xi Jinping weren't continuing to inflame tensions by setting a 2049 deadline for forcefully retaking Taiwan (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-46733174).

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#198

Post by coryrc »

perennate wrote: post #193
coryrc wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're only pretending. Saving face is critical when negotiating in the East. If we can let the mainland save face and it costs us little of importance, why act otherwise? Also, Taiwan itself is not unified. Around a third want to unify with the CCP.

The KMT does not want to eventually re-unify the PRC. They merely want to continue pretending to want to eventually re-unify with the PRC to maintain good economic relations. Because the PRC accounts for 28% of Taiwan's exports and 19% of Taiwan's imports ( https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/daily_update_e/tr... ). Really hardly anyone in Taiwan wants to re-unify with the PRC, they have seen the genocide the…

My understanding of opinion polls referenced here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_unification#Taiwan_(RO...

States {polls consistently found 70% to 80% of all residents in Taiwan opposed to unification through CCP's "One country, two systems"} which means 20-30% are for it?

I definitely don't know enough to know if people are pretending to want reunification or actually do.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#199

Post by perennate »

coryrc wrote: post #198
perennate wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The KMT does not want to eventually re-unify the PRC. They merely want to continue pretending to want to eventually re-unify with the PRC to maintain good economic relations. Because the PRC accounts for 28% of Taiwan's exports and 19% of Taiwan's imports ( https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/daily_update_e/tr... ). Really hardly anyone in Taiwan wants to re-unify with the PRC, they have seen the genocide the…

My understanding of opinion polls referenced here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_unification#Taiwan_(RO... States {polls consistently found 70% to 80% of all residents in Taiwan opposed to unification through CCP's "One country, two systems"} which means 20-30% are for it? I definitely don't know enough to know if people are pretending to want reunification or actually do.

Hm you're right, I checked https://jamestown.org/program/taiwan-opinion-polling-on-unif... and https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3951560 and it seems the 30% supporting eventual unification claim is correct according to recent polling, with 11% supporting sooner unification (i.e. unify even if PRC still has a Nazi government).

Edit: according to https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7805&id=6962 (which has a finer breakdown) the number is 7.5%, but the jamestown.org article links to data also collected by NCCU (but maybe a different group), so I'm not sure what the distinction is.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#200

Post by perennate »

Jasonnor wrote: post #141
coryrc wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're only pretending. Saving face is critical when negotiating in the East. If we can let the mainland save face and it costs us little of importance, why act otherwise? Also, Taiwan itself is not unified. Around a third want to unify with the CCP.

> Around a third want to unify with the CCP. I am from Taiwan. Where does the data for your sentence come from? As far as I know, the proportion of people who want to be unified with CCP is only 2.4%. Reference: https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7804&id=6960

This is about cultural identity though. The link should be https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7805&id=6962 which shows 0.7+6.8 = 7.5% supporting eventual re-unification with 0.7% supporting immediate re-unification.
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