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Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

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Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#41

Post by jsmcgd »

inglor_cz wrote: post #21
74d-fe6-2c6 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. That's why education is the most important pillar of democracy…

"That's why education is the most important pillar of democracy. Education is everything. " The kind of people who get into positions of power - well, my impression is that they think they know better. Even if they are aware of the fact that in 1930 someone fucked up, they will not entertain the fact that they themselves might do the same. Also, some events are really complex. You can educate people about the 1929 or…

I think that's why an education has to be broad. A selective education can be tantamount to brainwashing/propaganda. Give the students as many perspectives and hope that they will do something sensible as they process the information; knowing that not all will, but most.

I believe that the more perspectives you are aware of, the less likely you are to be dogmatic and extreme in your beliefs and actions. You will be reminded how dissimilar real life is to simple ideas and rhetoric, that it is a shifting ocean of nuances and caveats.

Or society can go the other route, assume you cannot trust the people and create a tyranny of disinformation and control.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#42

Post by qwantim1 »

roenxi wrote: post #34
74d-fe6-2c6 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. That's why education is the most important pillar of democracy…

I dunno, there are a lot of countries famous for their education which are nevertheless not ideal places to go. Culture might be a more important aspect than education. Education is relatively easy to transplant (c.f. China & the rest of Asia, or the US stealing many of Germany's good scientists after WWII, or the Brits leaching French expertise after the revolution). Culture is really hard to transplant because nobo…

While there’s not a 1:1 from education to happiness or prosperity, the least educated countries are really not doing well.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#43

Post by paganel »

iguy wrote: post #37
roenxi wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dunno, there are a lot of countries famous for their education which are nevertheless not ideal places to go. Culture might be a more important aspect than education. Education is relatively easy to transplant (c.f. China & the rest of Asia, or the US stealing many of Germany's good scientists after WWII, or the Brits leaching French expertise after the revolution). Culture is really hard to transplant because nobo…

These examples are of technical education. German rocket scientists, and British blast-furnace wizards (to France). These things are important of course but seem orthogonal to political institutional memory. Scholars deeply steeped in Bismark's thoughts & mistakes, or in English constitutional law, didn't make these jumps.

> or in English constitutional law

Carl Schmitt did in fact made the jump, and he's one of the most read constitutional law writers in the last century. Not sure if Max Weber would have done the same, most probably not (he was really versed in English constitutional law, his "Economy and Society" has lots of quotes to Maitland's "History of English Law"), but he didn't strike me as a fervent supporter of democracy rights either.

And there was also the definite jump made by Heidegger, not exactly a legal scholar but a very well-read person nonetheless (and a mentor to Hannah Arendt, among others).

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#44

Post by inglor_cz »

paganel wrote: post #40
inglor_cz wrote: post #2

Turchin's two main ideas are intriguing. a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. b) elite overproduction…

>at the 25+ crowd with fresh degrees, tons of debt and not-precisely-excellent earning opportunities There are numerous studies and theories saying that late 19th-early 20th century revolutions wouldn't have happened if they hadn't been coordinated by educated people who hadn't found a stable job (mostly as government employees, not that many private white-collar jobs back then). The Russian revolution definitely wou…

Hello fellow Central European :-)

In interwar Czechoslovakia, we had quite a few intellectuals who were openly Stalinist.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#45

Post by onethought »

WatchDog wrote: post #38
onethought wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, if you are on the right (political spectrum) you do not want to encourage higher education, it shifts people to the left, as analytical thinking starts undoing idealism. US is a good example of this, with most universities having more left communities around them. Perhaps it is an intentional long play by the Right in Australia to pursue this kind of minimisation of education

I don't think analytical thinking has anything to do with political leaning, I'd argue that the US higher education system particularly the humanities is a breeding ground of idealogues. I would say the tendency of education to lean left is largely due to left leaning people being more attracted to working in academia.

This is an umbrellas make it rain reverse causation. If you look outside the US the education level does correlate with the political spectrum. The higher educated the population the entire spectrum shifts left. See Northern Europe, Japan, Australia, Singapore, China, even political ideology (democracy vs socialism) doesn’t change this correlation

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#46

Post by onethought »

_y5hn wrote: post #19
onethought wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, if you are on the right (political spectrum) you do not want to encourage higher education, it shifts people to the left, as analytical thinking starts undoing idealism. US is a good example of this, with most universities having more left communities around them. Perhaps it is an intentional long play by the Right in Australia to pursue this kind of minimisation of education

You could say that analytical thinking undo gullibility. Idealism and principles though, may better be understood, applied and defended, with well-rounded education.

Good point. I think that is a better way to describe what I mean

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#47

Post by watwut »

flybrand wrote: post #25
watwut wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Young people are less violent then they used to be. It is not just about their share in population, they behave less violently then young people 50 years ago.

People who are less violent can easily become violent because they don’t understand the cost and destruction of force escalation.

Afaik, generations that grew up in violent times are more violent then those who grew up in peaceful times. Being used to violence, seeing it and/or being traumatized by it offsets whatever lack seeing the cost does.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#48

Post by LatteLazy »

satellite2 wrote: post #16
inglor_cz wrote: post #2

Turchin's two main ideas are intriguing. a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. b) elite overproduction…

I think, it's an interesting model, and would probably work all else being equal. But in that case, I believe he misses one critical variable. We are much less violent than 50 years ago because kid beating largely went out of fashion.

Also because of the banning of lead in many products...

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#49

Post by WatchDog »

onethought wrote: post #45
WatchDog wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think analytical thinking has anything to do with political leaning, I'd argue that the US higher education system particularly the humanities is a breeding ground of idealogues. I would say the tendency of education to lean left is largely due to left leaning people being more attracted to working in academia.

This is an umbrellas make it rain reverse causation. If you look outside the US the education level does correlate with the political spectrum. The higher educated the population the entire spectrum shifts left. See Northern Europe, Japan, Australia, Singapore, China, even political ideology (democracy vs socialism) doesn’t change this correlation

> This is an umbrellas make it rain reverse causation.

I don't see how.

> If you look outside the US the education level does correlate with the political spectrum.

I didn't mention anything about the US, it's a global phenomenon. Personality is a largely biological construct, and it's also highly correlated with political leaning.

Looking at the big 5 model, left leaning people tend to be high in neuroticism(emotional stability) and openness, and low in conscientiousness. Right leaning people tend to be the opposite.

These same traits influence peoples decision to work in academia, openness is a beneficial trait for learning new ideas.

Meanwhile people high in conscientiousness, low in neuroticism are highly sought after in industry.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#50

Post by simonh »

onethought wrote: post #15
BLKNSLVR wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taking b) and running with it, education is, in my opinion, the silver bullet for a number of societies ills. It's very interesting to note how higher education in the US has such a high barrier to entry that it actively discourages outsiders. It feels as if the Australian Government wants to move in the same direction, and / or have already been doing so for a few years. Education has its own benefits to society as…

True, if you are on the right (political spectrum) you do not want to encourage higher education, it shifts people to the left, as analytical thinking starts undoing idealism. US is a good example of this, with most universities having more left communities around them. Perhaps it is an intentional long play by the Right in Australia to pursue this kind of minimisation of education

I think that’s a mistake, because while I agree there’s a left lean among academics, I don’t think that necessarily translates into the graduate population generally. Conservatism needs educated leaders as well anyway. If there is a problem there the answer is balancing out education, not reducing it.
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