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Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

state.gov

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Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#51

Post by someperson »

vkou wrote: post #27
bigpumpkin wrote: post #4

I'm curious why Pompeo is choosing to do this now, rather than a year ago. Only 11 days until the next administration, or is he still thinking about transitioning to a second Trump term?

Because he doesn't actually give two figs about Taiwan [1], he just wants to piss in the cereal bowl of the next administration. This is not a decision driven by foreign policy - this is a decision driven by domestic political squabbles. It's similar to an administration running a deficit for four years, losing an election, and then having their party suddenly rediscover the virtues of fiscal responsibility and balan…

From Mike Pompeo's statements and interviews he seems to care about Taiwan. Like other conservative Republicans he has deeply-held religious beliefs and holds the view that democratic Taiwan should have relations normalized.

But he isn't above partisanship.

This relatively minor decision is now politically difficult to reverse, and the current administration won't have to deal with any diplomatic fallout. And the next administration doesn't need to burn political capital. All while incrementally pushing forward America's foreign policy objectives of formalizing Taiwan as the independent country its been for decades.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#52

Post by nabla9 »

This will get angry response from China, but that's about it. No change in big issues:

1) US does not formally recognize Taiwan (doing so means ending diplomatic relations with China).

2) US is not altering the Taiwan relations act. No alliance, no binding security guarantees, strategic ambiguity continues.

3) Taiwan is not declaring independence.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#53

Post by eunos »

bigpumpkin wrote: post #4

I'm curious why Pompeo is choosing to do this now, rather than a year ago. Only 11 days until the next administration, or is he still thinking about transitioning to a second Trump term?

Try to make Biden's admin life far more difficult.

Pompeo has 2024 presidential dream.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#54

Post by beerandt »

Rapzid wrote: post #39

It's been time for a long time to stop pretending Taiwan is not a critical ally of the USA and that we would ever allow the CCP to absorb them. They deserve our recognition and support on the international stage.

I absolutely agree.

The political reality of the current US/Taiwan relationship is so absurd. We sell fighter jets to a country we don't even officially recognize. That's not some CIA insurrection level slush fund.

Which always reminds me that no matter what "inviable" international laws or standards the civilized world pretends to adhere to, that it's all a sham, and sovereign nations, especially the US, can find a way to legally justify whatever the hell it is they want to do.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#55

Post by United857 »

> The executive branch‘s relations with Taiwan are to be handled by the non-profit AIT, as stipulated in the Taiwan Relations Act.

How is this different than the status quo? AIT has always been the de-facto US representation in Taiwan up to now.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#56

Post by roenxi »

someperson wrote: post #42
dirtyid wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just Pompeo spiking options for next admin. Taiwan has about 5-10 years of strategic space left due to semiconductor dominance. Think Pompeo hopes to setup enough friction points for hotwar in the 10-15 years, when enough semi divests from Taiwan and before Chinese military fully modernizes. 15-30 years and China will be in a position to take over Taiwan with relatively little US containment options.

I used to believe it was only a matter of time until China is militarily able to take Taiwan. But it's not true: amphibious landings are notoriously difficult. Taiwan only has a few, easily defended beaches that can host an a landing. The rest of the coastline is jagged and rocky, and the Taiwan Strait hosts many typhoons and bad weather. For what it's worth, even the US would struggle to invade Taiwan militarily.

That just means they shouldn't try an amphibious landing first up. They could set up a blockade then use a bunch of missiles, artillery and drones to shell Taiwan until they surrender.

If it is Taiwan v. China, Taiwan will lose. The only hope they have is support from someone with a strong enough navy that China can't blockade them.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#57

Post by doomleika »

That's whole lots of nothing by a soon-to-be replaced Secretary of the State.

Everything is still the same, the One China Policy[1] hasn't changed: There's only One China and Taiwan belongs to China. Everything still going through non-official channel which is AIT. Nothing has changed.

Source: I live in Taiwan.

--

[1]: https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#58

Post by someperson »

adventured wrote: post #50
__sy__ wrote: post #14

I've lived in Taiwan for a short period of time. I absolutely love it there and I encourage everyone here to go check it out. Furthermore, the Taiwanese people deserve the right to self-determination, and our support if they decide to go their own way. That being said, considering the enormously strategic role that Taiwan plays in electronics supply chains (e.g. TSMC, Wistron...etc), it's always been odd to me that t…

The US placates Beijing to try to delay or avoid Beijing just going ahead and invading and taking it by force (if China ultimately believes there is no other path). The US can't stop China from taking Taiwan. 20 or 30 years ago it would have been very difficult to stop that, today it's impossible. The US isn't even ready yet for that confrontation, it needs to deploy a massive number of ballistic missiles along the i…

As mentioned elsewhere in this thread, I used to think it was inevitable that China will be able to successfully invade Taiwan, but its almost impossible to pull of an amphibious invasion. Taiwan's geography makes this particularly difficult.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#59

Post by doomleika »

__sy__ wrote: post #14

I've lived in Taiwan for a short period of time. I absolutely love it there and I encourage everyone here to go check it out. Furthermore, the Taiwanese people deserve the right to self-determination, and our support if they decide to go their own way. That being said, considering the enormously strategic role that Taiwan plays in electronics supply chains (e.g. TSMC, Wistron...etc), it's always been odd to me that t…

It's awesome because you are a westerner.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#60

Post by Rapzid »

beerandt wrote: post #54
Rapzid wrote: post #39

It's been time for a long time to stop pretending Taiwan is not a critical ally of the USA and that we would ever allow the CCP to absorb them. They deserve our recognition and support on the international stage.

I absolutely agree. The political reality of the current US/Taiwan relationship is so absurd. We sell fighter jets to a country we don't even officially recognize. That's not some CIA insurrection level slush fund. Which always reminds me that no matter what "inviable" international laws or standards the civilized world pretends to adhere to, that it's all a sham, and sovereign nations, especially the US, can find a…

And the "T" in TSMC is, of course, for "Taiwan". They aren't simply a geopolitical asset as an ally in the Indo Pacific strategy acting a buffer against CCP influence; they are a manufacturing partner supplying critical infrastructure that is likely considered of national security interest to the West.
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