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Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#391

Post by bawolff »

b-g-m wrote: post #379
bawolff wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> New law enforcement techniques using DNS and other Intel techniques will be used to track, seize and tax cryptocurrency - which will cause increased popularity of Ethereum. DNS? Not sure how that's relavent. And furthermore why would a crack down lead to more popularity? > A qubit will travel around the world without decohering and increase attention on quantum internet investments Well that would be good for resea…

To join many Bitcoin based peernetworks - you first contact one of the DNS seeds. Which is traceable by LEO. Ethereum has their own DNS and other security protocols which bypass this problem - which would be attractive to those who use cryptocurrency to avoid LEO. Quantum internet is different than QKD. The best analogy I can give is its like the difference between Morse code and the internet. Things like quantum tel…

> Things like quantum teleportation, superdense coding and distributed quantum computing through a quantum internet will be revolutionary.

Why?

> quantum teleportation

What is the practical near term (next 10 years) applications? I can't think of any.

> superdense coding

Somewhat better compression is hardly a killer app, especially given the costs imvolved.

> distributed quantum computing

Need actual quantum computers before you can have that (definitely more than 10 years away imo). I'm also a bit unclear as to how applicable quantum algorithms are to parallelization in distributed machines.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#392

Post by llampx »

gautamcgoel wrote: post #361
dartharva wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>A Reddit competitor emerges and wins majority marketshare So many have tried and failed already. I would really wish that to happen though.

What's wrong with Reddit?

Go to www.reddit.com/r/all and sort by new. It's all trash. And porn.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#394

Post by morpheos137 »

Dirak wrote: post #196

* 50% of all US currency is printed between now and the end of 2021 * 1 Bitcoin will cost over $100k on Dec 31, 2021 * An animation tool rivaling Adobe Flash for the web will emerge * FB releases a thin virtual reality headset https://research.fb.com/blog/2020/06/holographic-optics-for-... * Austin Tx or Seattle Wa succeeds Silicon Valley as the next major tech hub. San Francisco and its century old Victorians become…

I am struck by how unrealistic many of these predictions are. My personal take, response.

* Accelerating inflation perhaps leading high single digits low double digits in the next several years.

* Stocks continue to rise as a function of inflation.

* Unemployment measured by workforce participation rate stays high or increases.

* Full self drivering cars are no closer.

* 50% chance of Bitcoin crash like in 2018, 50% chance of further price appreciation but I think $100,000 is absurd for a commodity that has close to zero intrinsic value...

* Major urban areas see falling rents as WFH continues.

* Silicon Valley loses some of its prominence as a function of WFH but I doubt a wholesale shift could happen in a year.

* 50 % chance of major social unrest in the USA as Trump diehards refuse to accept Biden.

* Tech advertising bubble begins to collapse. Tech bubble begins to collapse by year end. AI, self-driving vehicles discredited.

* Amazon reduces its own shipping service as a money loser increases use of UPS and USPS.

* Subscription web services (rather than ad funded) services begin to emerge.

* Reddit continues to decline in quality but no clear alternative emerges.

* Open source, distributed alternative to Facebook emerges, or linked-in subscription based competition.

* 25% chance major world leader dies

* 25% - 33% chance of major armed conflict, especially involving China.

* 20% chance of well attested "alien" contact.

* 20% chance of second novel pandemic in addition to Covid-19

* 20% chance of extra solar "asteroid" like Oumuamua

* >50% chance of Middle East Peace agreement between Arabs and Israel

* Large chance of abnormal oil price volatility.

* Brexit results in deep recession in UK, Boris Johnson is out.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#395

Post by majewsky »

b-g-m wrote: post #379
bawolff wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> New law enforcement techniques using DNS and other Intel techniques will be used to track, seize and tax cryptocurrency - which will cause increased popularity of Ethereum. DNS? Not sure how that's relavent. And furthermore why would a crack down lead to more popularity? > A qubit will travel around the world without decohering and increase attention on quantum internet investments Well that would be good for resea…

To join many Bitcoin based peernetworks - you first contact one of the DNS seeds. Which is traceable by LEO. Ethereum has their own DNS and other security protocols which bypass this problem - which would be attractive to those who use cryptocurrency to avoid LEO. Quantum internet is different than QKD. The best analogy I can give is its like the difference between Morse code and the internet. Things like quantum tel…

Since I had to look it up: LEO = Law Enforcement Officer(s) in this context.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#396

Post by majewsky »

epicureanideal wrote: post #134
NetOpWibby wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really?! That’s stone cold.

Apparently it’s true. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-biden-idUSKBN0... > "I said, 'Mr. Prime Minister, I'm looking into your eyes, and I don’t think you have a soul,'" Biden told the magazine. "He looked back at me, and he smiled, and he said, 'We understand one another.'"

That reminds me of a one-line summary of the Cold War: "The Americans play Poker. The Russians play Chess."

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#397

Post by majewsky »

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #132
jokethrowaway wrote: post #34

Prolonged lockdowns and new habits kill 75% of small businesses and greatly increase inequality as the richest 10% stay at home saving/investing instead of spending. This will trigger an economic collapse which will bring down the eurozone. Germany will want country rated euros to avoid having to bail Italy. House prices in Europe will drop to a rent / value rate similar to the USA, as property owners scrap for money…

If I had a euro for every time I've heard a prediction of the collapse of the euro I'd be rich by now.

> If I had a euro for every time I've heard a prediction of the collapse of the euro the Euro would have collapsed because of devaluation by now.

FTFY

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#398

Post by FridgeSeal »

llampx wrote: post #392
gautamcgoel wrote: post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's wrong with Reddit?

Go to www.reddit.com/r/all and sort by new. It's all trash. And porn.

I mean, new was always trash, and porn has been on Reddit since practically it’s inception, but the content (that makes it out of new) and discussion quality has unequivocally declined significantly.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#400

Post by bsenftner »

stevesimmons wrote: post #329
bsenftner wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Virtually trying on clothing has significant social hurdles in the fashion industry, primarily due to a complete lack of trust within the industry. Design theft is one of the most major concerns, and any system attempting to enable consumers to virtually try on clothing requires the clothing designs to be released to 3rd parties before the items are in the market - and that early information release is exactly what a…

... then build a platform that feeds a consumer's measurements to a secure environment controlled by the brand/designer, render the result there, and send the picture back. Everything can stay under the control of the designer, including 2FA of the end-user, the degree of fidelity of the rendering, rate limits for requests, timed release to selected partners, etc, etc.

Two minutes into that pitch, any and all major fashion corporations will kick you out the door. I spent significant time trying to crack this nut - the fashion industry culture at it's core is luddite, that and any tech that is not 100% transparent ain't gonna fly.
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