UK formally leaves European Union after 48 years • Hacker News Board

Re: UK formally leaves European Union after 48 years

#131

Post by skissane » Fri, Jan 01, 2021, 1:09 AM UTC

dmje wrote: post #15

Yay. Now we're free. Oh wait, no, it's just that absolutely everything got harder, more expensive, more nationalistic, more pathetic and sad. It's all incredibly depressing. Here's hoping our kids manage to vote us back in as soon as those Tory f's are out.

> Here's hoping our kids manage to vote us back in as soon as those Tory f's are out.

I think there is a decent chance that sometime in the next few years there will be another Scottish independence referendum, that this time "Yes" will win, and then an independent Scotland will apply to rejoin the EU.

I think Scottish independence, combined with demographic changes in Northern Ireland – Catholics are likely to outnumber Protestants, possibly as early as this year's census, but if not in 2021, then almost certainly in 2031 – have a decent chance of leading to Irish reunification in the next couple of decades.

If Scotland and a united Ireland are in the EU, will the United Kingdom of England and Wales still want to stay out? (And will they still keep the "United" in their name?)

(Even Welsh independence might happen eventually, but I think that is a fair way further off than Scottish independence or Irish reunification.)

Re: UK formally leaves European Union after 48 years

#132

Post by ben_w » Fri, Jan 01, 2021, 1:10 AM UTC

ceejayoz wrote: post #40

rvz wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well Labour will just waste another decade campaigning to rejoin the EU which has so far has been nothing but a complete failure given the last 3 consecutive election defeats since the referendum vote. Here's to another decade of Labour being out of government. (Again).

It may be an easier sell once the consequences of Brexit are less theoretical and more practical for a few years.

Perhaps, perhaps not.

IIRC the forecast economic damage is lost opportunity for growth rather than immediate losses, and any actual immediate losses could be easily dismissed (especially by this lot) as “COVID losses, not Brexit”.

Re: UK formally leaves European Union after 48 years

#133

Post by rsynnott » Fri, Jan 01, 2021, 1:10 AM UTC

mhh__ wrote: post #75

FartyMcFarter wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Here's hoping our kids manage to vote us back in New old people are created every day. So I wouldn't necessarily count on it. I hope you're right though.

It's almost entropic really - there was a genuinely depressing YouGov graph from a few years ago which plotted the number of people who actually think the EU is an important issue vs. time: The number is almost nil (even the wonks didn't care) until the year/s directly leading up to the referendum. Europe is a tricky problem, but the way Brexit specifically has happened (Lie, Damned Lies, and fake statistics - at bes…

Certainly a referendum this vague. People were asked to vote for either status quo or... something very ill defined. Witness the ‘yes’ voters suddenly surprised they’re losing their jobs because the deal doesn’t cover selling live eels or sausages or banking services or whatever to Europe.

It’s easy to say “they condemned themselves” and they _were_ naive to buy into the cake-type Brexit narrative, but if the choice had been between status quo and “we’ll try to negotiate this sort of attainable deal”, people would have had some idea on what they were voting for. As it was, it could have been anything from Norway+ to autarky.

Re: UK formally leaves European Union after 48 years

#134

Post by desas » Fri, Jan 01, 2021, 1:11 AM UTC

FartyMcFarter wrote: post #106

mhh__ wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's almost entropic really - there was a genuinely depressing YouGov graph from a few years ago which plotted the number of people who actually think the EU is an important issue vs. time: The number is almost nil (even the wonks didn't care) until the year/s directly leading up to the referendum. Europe is a tricky problem, but the way Brexit specifically has happened (Lie, Damned Lies, and fake statistics - at bes…

> the only real lesson from this is that referenda are truly disastrous for complex policy decisions. Yeah, I think that's definitely the big lesson. I feel it's exacerbated by decades of tabloid propaganda.

Decades of uk politicians letting the EU take the fall in the tabloids and little of the credit.

Re: UK formally leaves European Union after 48 years

#135

Post by rasz » Fri, Jan 01, 2021, 1:13 AM UTC

Hasnep wrote: post #97

hedora wrote: post #18

If they decide to rejoin at some point, perhaps the EU could demand elimination of the pound.

Since the introduction of the Euro, joining the eurozone is a requirement of being in the EU. My impression is that the UK and Denmark were given opt-out because we were already part of the EU at the time.

cough Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania cough

I can assure you there is no way Poland adopts Euro, we will sooner Pexit than let Germany manipulate our currency for their profit. Just look what they did to Greece.

Re: UK formally leaves European Union after 48 years

#136

Post by azornathogron » Fri, Jan 01, 2021, 1:14 AM UTC

runarberg wrote: post #116

533474 wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personal opinion. Tribalism prevails, humans have no fix. Perhaps in another reality or dimension it is conceivable for people to come together and form a truly resourceful world government. Wait till you see how the lack of world coordination keeps this virus thriving in half of the planet. While we plot beautiful statistics to show which tribe has less cases in a non-uniform response. Hail the great UK for awakenin…

By that logic we would expect the German states to vote them self out of the German federation, Scotland and Wales to vote them self out of the UK, Nigeria to break apart, etc. And not only that we should expect it to happen with hostility towards the old nation, e.g. no trade unions after independence (unlike e.g. Catalonia not only voting them self out of Spain, but also out of the EU). However that seems not be ha…

> However that seems not be happening, nor does there seem to be any will towards it.

I don't know about your other examples, but there is definitely some will toward Scotland voting themselves out of the UK. There was already a referendum about it a few years ago, and there has been more talk again recently since Scottish voters didn't want Brexit and many would love for Scotland to be able to break from the UK and rejoin the EU.

Re: UK formally leaves European Union after 48 years

#137

Post by krona » Fri, Jan 01, 2021, 1:15 AM UTC

ceejayoz wrote: post #40

rvz wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well Labour will just waste another decade campaigning to rejoin the EU which has so far has been nothing but a complete failure given the last 3 consecutive election defeats since the referendum vote. Here's to another decade of Labour being out of government. (Again).

It may be an easier sell once the consequences of Brexit are less theoretical and more practical for a few years.

It's unclear whether the collapse of the European banking system will have the effect of boosting support for rejoining the EU, but it's not impossible.

Re: UK formally leaves European Union after 48 years

#138

Post by spzb » Fri, Jan 01, 2021, 1:15 AM UTC

tpmx wrote: post #123

spzb wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not as good as we had before. It’s the only trade deal negotiated with the explicitly stated intention of having fewer benefits than before.

You got access to the EU's internal market without tariffs (except for financial services). The EU key people stated for a very long time - access to the internal EU market cannot be decoupled from the free movement of people. But still, you won that. All because you gave access to french fishers to some fishing waters. I think this bribe to one of the EU partners has been the key impetus for a lot of renewed EU resi…

Which is less than we had before. Also we now have non tariff barriers including a load more red tape bureaucracy even when sending things from one part of the U.K. to another thanks to the Irish Sea border

Re: UK formally leaves European Union after 48 years

#139

Post by rsynnott » Fri, Jan 01, 2021, 1:15 AM UTC

hndudette wrote: post #95

matthewmacleod wrote: post #46

Little to celebrate here. The main outcome is that it’s now going to be much more of a pain in the arse to perform lots of basic functions that we took for granted. There is now a bunch more red tape involved involved in buying or selling goods or services to other European counties. It’s harder and more expensive to move for work or education, both to and from the UK. The UK now has a customs border inside it’s own…

Wouldn't it be better to replace the EU with an expansive multilateral free trade treaty that encompasses the same states? Why do we need an additional layer of government?

Depends how expansive you want it. At a certain point, to ease trade, you need common standards and rules and an enforcement mechanism for both, and, oops, suddenly you’ve got a government. That’s essentially how the EU came about in the first place.

Re: UK formally leaves European Union after 48 years

#140

Post by tormeh » Fri, Jan 01, 2021, 1:15 AM UTC

tpmx wrote: post #123

spzb wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not as good as we had before. It’s the only trade deal negotiated with the explicitly stated intention of having fewer benefits than before.

You got access to the EU's internal market without tariffs (except for financial services). The EU key people stated for a very long time - access to the internal EU market cannot be decoupled from the free movement of people. But still, you won that. All because you gave access to french fishers to some fishing waters. I think this bribe to one of the EU partners has been the key impetus for a lot of renewed EU resi…

This deal is available to most countries. That's the whole Canada deal thingie. Tariffs are usually pretty low anyway in today's world, and not a huge burden. What's unique about the internal market is the absence of paperwork. Regulatory harmonization and recognition of each other's authorities massively simplifies trade. No customs, no immigration, you load stuff on a truck, drive it to where the buyer is, and that's it.